Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Latest Episodes:

Brit Hume on a Race Like No Other Oct 31, 2024

Show notes

Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates.
Plus, Henry rants his way through all the swing states to make as plain as possible the complicated rules and regulations, procedures and peculiarities that will affect the Election Day result rollout. And he does a lightning-fast ad roundup of the ultra-close House races in Colorado 8, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 1, and Michigan 10 to consider whether they might push the needle just over the edge.
Happy Election Day, everyone!

The Switch in Time to Hold Rs to Nine? Oct 24, 2024

Show notes

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump's unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president's bid.
Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can't know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state's abortion ballot initiative.

The Early Voting Forecast: From Storm Season to Election Season Oct 17, 2024

Show notes

We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what's going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods' expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come in on November 5th.
Plus, Henry dives into the Harris campaign's concerns over her polling numbers with Black voters, and he zips through a lightning-round ad breakdown for key races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York.

Wisconsin Whiplash! Oct 10, 2024

Show notes

Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race.
Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down what this best-kept non-secret means for strategists, and assesses how the Harris and Trump campaigns are responding.
And, as always, Henry’s got ads! This week he takes a look at the light touch approach taken by John Duarte of CA-13 to win over weary Independents, alongside Susan Wild’s ingenious ploy for young women in PA-7.

A Prevent Defense October? Oct 03, 2024

Show notes

Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.
Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector.

Reports from the Middle of Somewhere, PA Sep 26, 2024

Show notes

Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated.
Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big answers!

Toss Ups and Vanishing Ticket Splitters Sep 12, 2024

Show notes

In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference.
Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts might sway the chambers.
Finally, Henry takes a look at Angela Alsobrooks' latest ad, which tries to sway Independents and Democrat leaners from putting Larry Hogan on the national stage.

Has Harris’ Sugar Rush Faded? Sep 05, 2024

Show notes

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.
Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Can American Elections Be Trusted? Aug 29, 2024

Show notes

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes.
Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.

The Consultant’s Axiom Aug 22, 2024

Show notes

Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future.
Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?

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