Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

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Mischief and Mayhem in Campaign 2024 Jan 04, 2024

Show notes

The election year has arrived and the quest to defeat Donald Trump continues, but there's a growing suspicion that this journey's heroes are living in a fantasy land. Henry sits down with Spectator Editor-in-Chief Ben Domenech to discuss these interesting times the country finds itself in—and be sure to stick around for Ben's placement of the candidates in the realm of Dungeons and Dragons and popular memes.
And even after last episode's Festivus rant, Henry still has a bone to pick with DeSantis; plus the Ad of the Week is back with Bernie Moreno's short but sweet Trump endorsement spot.

Airing Our (Political) Grievances: It's Festivus Time! Dec 21, 2023

Show notes

It's our last episode of the year. Before we head into 2024, Henry airs his grievances with the wannabe heavyweights of this cycle. From Joe Biden’s dismal performance, Ron DeSantis' inept campaign, the perpetually grumpy Freedom Caucus that can’t execute on squat, and ambitious progressive Democrats who lack the chutzpah to challenge their party’s unpopular leader: Mr. Olsen's got a lot of problems with these people!
He also chats with Monmouth University Polling Institute's Patrick Murray about the data on the electorate’s dissatisfaction and on parsing through a respondent’s tribal filter. And he welcomes the University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala back to cover the race between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, along with what the other candidates’ presence on the ballot could mean for the Granite State primary.
Merry Christmas, all. See you again in the election year!

A Snowball's Chance and a Path Through Heck Dec 14, 2023

Show notes

While it would probably be unwise to bet on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, Henry's back to remind you that it ain't impossible. This week's rant will get you up to speed on what to look out for.
David Wasserman joins to break down a number of key tossups in the House and Senate, and to discuss whether last midterm’s resurgence of emphasis on regional candidate quality will hold up in congressional races during this presidential cycle.

How Many Tickets Out of Iowa? Dec 07, 2023

Show notes

As promised, Beyond the Polls is back after just one week away! Henry sits down with RCP's Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende to discuss the scenarios in the Iowa Caucus that could leave a path for Donald Trump's many Republican challengers. Then he and AEI's Senior Fellow Emerita Karlyn Bowman consider whether and how an extremely unpopular Joe Biden can overcome his grim numbers and win in November.
And since it's the season for gifts, Henry has a rant and an ad of the week for you! Get his take on last week's much touted Red State Blue State Debate, along with a review of a puzzling and highly risky ad from the Trump campaign.

Piñata Politics Nov 30, 2023

Show notes

You’ve had your fill on turkey, now it’s time to get back to the races! In fact, we’re so eager to get back in that Beyond the Polls will be coming out weekly going forward.
This week Henry sits down with John Hood of the Pope Foundation for a tour of North Carolina, a state set for competetive elections for both GOP contenders and in the general. Then James Johnson, cofounder of JL Partners, takes us through his findings on an electorate which largely disapproves of the presidential rematch that’s likely to come in ’24.
And stay tuned for a jaunt around the Atlantic as Henry rants about the victorious Javier Milei and Geert Wilders, and what these smashing overseas elections mean for the USA.

GOP: Knocked Down, Not Out? Nov 09, 2023

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We're hearing that voters prefer a "generic candidate." Today Henry and his polling buddies consider this ideal alongside the less popular incarnate candidates before us. Kristen Soltis Anderson covers interesting shifts in Trump voter demographics and the weak challenges by his primary opponents; Spencer Kimball joins to discuss Biden's waning support with key Democratic blocs and his trailing Republicans in swing states; and Craig Gilbert dives into one of the essential swing states, clueing us in on what to look for in the race for Wisconsin.
And stay tuned to the end for the first ever “Olsen Rants!” This time he freestyles on the GOP’s rough night on Tuesday. He'll set you straight on what happened in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and more. The good news? It ain't as bad as you think!

Countdown in the Commonwealth Oct 26, 2023

Show notes

It's a triple state of play kind of day! Henry brings us along on a tour of key southern states. Rudy Bush of Texas breaks down Ted Cruz's fight with Colin Allred and Lone Star State's demographic changes. Then we move to pressing matters further East, where off year elections are underway. Al Cross takes us through the must-watch governor's race between Andy Beshear and Daniel Cameron in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; and J. Miles Coleman joins to pick apart campaigns in the political bellwether that is the Virginia General Assembly.
Plus Henry's Washington Post colleague Dan Balz assesses the fight between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to be Donald Trump's final Republican challenger. And "Ad of the Week" returns with an introductory bio ad for prosecutor Bill Graham who hopes to be North Carolina's next governor.

Weighting For Dummies Oct 12, 2023

Show notes

While a Trump/Biden rematch is looking more likely every day, Henry returns with another merry band of politicos to discuss many of the remaining unknowns left in this '24 election cycle.
Charles Franklin (Director of the Marquette Law School Poll) provides a profile of the 1 in 5 Americans who make up the reluctant and "double doubter" categories; Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast breaks down a Republican Party in flux, and considers what consequences McCarthy's ouster will have; and Dennis Lennox is here to explain why the U.S. Virgin Islands — where he serves as the Executive Director of the territory's Republican Party —are much more than an ideal vacation spot; plus there's some talk about why rank choice voting might have a future.

So You're Saying There's a Chance? Sep 28, 2023

Show notes

Donald Trump looks like he’s running away with the GOP nomination, but several impressive opponents keep flailing away trying to catch him. Is this an exercise in futility or can one of them actually unseat him from his throne?
To discuss the complicated feat facing 2024 hopefuls, Henry welcomes RMG Research Founder and President Scott Rasmussen for the Polling Barometer; NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki on the Republican Rumble; and Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston on all things “Silver State”.
And stay tuned til the end for Henry’s breakdown of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s well played ad attacking challenger Daniel Cameron’s position on abortion.

Voter Inertia: The Meal Ticket? Sep 14, 2023

Show notes

We all have a favorite dish at our favorite restaurant, and often enough we just can't help but to stick with it. Could this tendency explain the resounding lead Donald Trump enjoys in the Republican race? Are those 91 indictments resembling five star reviews to the GOP base, or are DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy simply unappetizing?
Today Henry sits down with FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter to go over the menu. He and Geoff consider the Democrat's lack of alternatives to the underwhelming Joe Biden, along with the 'No Labels' third party push. Amy joins to discuss the GOP's race to second place and whether one of those candidates could go on to pull enough of the Republicans willing to be persuaded away from Trump.
Stay tuned to the end to hear Henry's breakdown of the NRSC's ad against Montana senator Jon Tester.

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