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    Business

    Behind the Markets Podcast

    Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree and Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at Wharton and author of Stocks for the Long Run, host this long-running podcast that dives into the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists to inform you what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.
    Regularly joining the two Jeremys is the Deep Rooted Macro Team that decodes the forces shaping markets and portfolios worldwide.
    Chris Gannatti, CFA, Global Head of Research, offers an analytical and thematic edge—bridging macro trends with on-the-ground technology and innovation. Whether unpacking the infrastructure powering the AI age or latest biotech breakthroughs, Chris translates complexity into conviction.
    Jeff Weniger, CFA, Head of Equity Strategy, injects the pulse of behavioral markets and valuation discipline. With sharp macro instincts, Jeff dissects cycles, sentiment, and structural change with trademark clarity and wit.
    Sam Rines, Macro Strategist for Model Portfolios, ties the threads together—linking policy, politics, and portfolio construction. His pragmatic macro lens captures how geopolitics, industrial policy, and energy dynamics flow into real-world GeoAlpha.
    Together, the Deep Rooted Macro squad creates a fusion of rigorous research, accessible insights, and genuine debate.
    Behind the Markets provides a regular masterclass in how the world really works beneath the surface of prices, data, and headlines. Tune in to hear where the Deep Rooted Macro team sees the next big shifts taking root.

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    Latest Episodes:
    GRAPpling with what’s next Aug 09, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 08/09/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into the week’s market developments, focusing on the Fed’s approach to interest rates. Professor Siegel strongly argues that the Fed should implement a significant rate cut, possibly 75 basis points. He believes the Fed’s models indicate that the Fed funds rate should already be lower. Siegel also discusses his concerns about the Fed’s lack of clear communication regarding their decision-making process, stressing the importance of adjusting rates sooner rather than later to maintain economic stability. (10:09) Jeremy continues the conversation with Samuel Rines who provides a detailed analysis of the current economic landscape. Rines touches on the noise in recent jobless claims data due to external factors like weather events. He discusses the normalization of inflation rates and how companies are beginning to see improvements in margins as input costs stabilize. Rines also highlights specific investment opportunities, including the potential in Japanese equities following recent market disruptions, the strategic importance of Poland within emerging markets, and the long-term growth prospects in India. Rines and Jeremy also discuss how geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations are influencing global investment strategies. Guest: Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed. Learn more about Samuel at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: @SamuelRines


    A Fed Mistake and Opportunities in Japan Market Turmoil Aug 02, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 08/02/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market developments, focusing on the recent Fed meeting and the implications of economic data. Professor Siegel criticizes the Fed’s decision to not cut rates despite signs of a weakening job market and increasing jobless claims. He expresses concern over a potential slowdown in the labor market and comments on the Fed’s neutral rate, inflation trends, and the performance of dividend-paying value stocks amid changing economic conditions. (14:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with Ken Taheny, head of trading and a co-portfolio manager at Foreships Asset Management. Ken discusses the recent turmoil in Asian markets, specifically Japan, highlighting the impact of the yen’s strengthening and the historic sell-off in Japanese equities. He explains the dynamics of the yen carry trade, the potential for a Japanese manufacturing renaissance, and the geopolitical factors influencing currency and market trends. Ken shares his insights into the opportunities in Japanese equities, the value of the yen, and the potential for Japan to become a key player in global high-end manufacturing as supply chains diversify from China. Guest: Kenneth Taheny and his team at Four Ships Asset Management excel in navigating complex trading strategies, having successfully managed significant asset portfolios. Through collaboration with a diverse international clientele, they've honed their expertise in financial services and asset management, ensuring operational excellence and regulatory compliance. Follow Kenneth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/kenneth-taheny-60554524


    Opportunities in the Market Rotation Jul 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 07/26/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest economic data, discussing the current GDP growth rate of 2%, stable jobless claims, and the PCE consumption figures. They note the favorable trends in commodity prices and speculate on the Fed’s potential rate cuts in September, with Professor Siegel suggesting a likely 25 basis points cut. The discussion also covers the political landscape, including the narrowing odds for Trump and the implications for tax policies under a potential Harris administration. (10:51) Jeremy Schwartz continues with Stephen Lee from Logan Capital, focusing on large-cap growth, the real rotation in the market, and how technology is impacting various sectors. Stephen Lee highlights the impact of AI and digital tools on business operations. They also discuss the importance of earnings leadership, where companies demonstrate their ability to grow despite economic challenges. Lee emphasizes the role of good management and technological adoption in driving growth. They touch on the differences between passive and active investment strategies, noting the advantages of identifying growth opportunities earlier than indices. The conversation concludes with insights into sectors benefiting from structural themes like housing, and how companies are adapting to changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. Guest: Stephen is a founding principal of Logan Capital and the firm’s treasurer. As a manager of growth portfolios, Stephen plays an active role in the security selection for the firm’s large cap growth and mid-to-large cap growth portfolios. He is also a member of the Fixed Income team. Before founding Logan Capital with his partners in 1993, Stephen was employed at Mercer Capital Management and Merrill Lynch. He currently serves his community as a member of several investment committees and foundation boards. He is a graduate of Lehigh University with a BS in accounting. Learn more about Stephen at: https://logancapital.com/team/#stephen-s-lee Follow Stephen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/stephen-lee-b3a53a5


    Is private credit in a bubble? Jul 18, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 07/19/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the political dynamics and potential scenarios surrounding the upcoming elections, as well as the implications of recent economic data, including jobless claims, housing, and retail sales figures. Siegel provides insights on the Fed’s anticipated moves and the market rotations between large and small stocks, emphasizing that small stocks may continue to benefit if the Fed cuts rates. (11:28) Jeremy continues with guests Andrew Okrongly and Vin Kravec from the Common Fund, exploring the private credit space. They discuss the surge in demand for private credit and its role as a liquid credit replacement The group touches base on the various strategies within private credit, such as senior lending and asset-based finance. Vin highlights the importance of private credit in enhancing portfolio diversification and its potential for higher yields compared to traditional credit markets. Guests: Andrew Okrongly joined WisdomTree in 2022 as a Director on the Model Portfolios Team. He is responsible for the design and ongoing management of model portfolios and custom solutions for portfolio managers and advisors. Andrew is also a member of the WisdomTree Asset Allocation and Model Portfolio Investment Committees. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Andrew was a Director on the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) team at Commonfund, where he was responsible for macro-economic analysis and advising institutional clients on strategic and tactical asset allocation. Andrew began his career at BlackRock where he held a variety of fixed income and multi-asset investment roles. Andrew received a BBA degree from the University of Michigan and is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Vincent Kravec is a member of the Commonfund OCIO Investment team and is primarily responsible for investment monitoring, manager sourcing, rebalancing and reporting for investment portfolios with a focus in fixed income and credit strategies. Prior to joining Commonfund, Vincent was with Lazard Asset Management as a member of the Fixed Income operations staff. While at Lazard he was a trading assistant on the Emerging Markets team. He was also a supervisor in Fixed Income Accounting and had responsibilities in trading operations involving allocating trades and resolving trade problems for corporates, treasuries, municipals, asset backs and FX trading desks. Previous experience includes positions at Morgan Stanley, Alliance Capital and Evaluation Associates. Vincent earned his M.B.A. in from New York University’s Stern School of Business and his B.A. from Fairfield University. He is also a CFA charter holder. Learn more about Andrew at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/andrew-okrongly Follow Andrew on X(Twitter): @AOkrongly Learn more about Vin at: https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-teams/outsourced-cio-team Follow Vin on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/vin-kravec-cfa-2a610b10


    Behind the Markets Podcast Special: Schwartz & Siegel Jul 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market trends, focusing on significant inflation data and its implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions. Professor Siegel highlights the positive CPI report and its potential to prompt rate cuts while expressing cautious optimism about unemployment claims and productivity trends. Jeremy continues with insights on market reactions to economic indicators, emphasizing the impact on various sectors and the potential for future rate adjustments.


    Misconceptions on misinformation Jul 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 07/06/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined by David Rothschild, a senior economist at Microsoft, who shares his research on the misconceptions surrounding online misinformation. David explains the nuanced landscape of media consumption, emphasizing the importance of understanding the broader media ecosystem and the role of algorithms. The two explore the challenges of addressing misinformation and the limitations of algorithmic influence, underscoring the role of user choice in content consumption. The conversation also touches on the implications of social media for political polarization. They delve into the potential effects of AI on society and productivity, with David highlighting both the opportunities and challenges presented by advancements in generative AI. He shares insights from his work on the Media Bias Detector, a tool designed to analyze media coverage and its impact on public perception, and discusses the broader implications of AI-driven research for understanding. The episode concludes with reflections on the future of media, technology, and their intersection with societal trends. Guest: David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written extensively, in both the academic and popular press. His work pushes the boundaries on varying data and methods: polling, prediction markets, social media and online data, and large behavioral and administrative data. His work focuses on solving practical and interesting questions including: mapping and updating public opinion, the market for news, effect of advertising, finance, and an economist's take on public policy. Learn more about David at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/davidmr/ Follow David on X(Twitter): @DavMicRot


    Shelter inflation bias and trends Jun 28, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 06/28/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kick off the episode discussing recent market trends and political impacts on the stock market, particularly focusing on the market’s reactions to political debates and economic indicators such as housing starts, trade deficits, and GDP growth estimates. Professor Siegel notes the persistent high interest rates affecting housing prices and the soft economic data in various sectors. He concludes with his outlook on the Federal Reserves potential actions in the upcoming meetings. (11:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with San Francisco Fed Research Advisor John Mondragon, who delves into the intricacies of measuring housing and inflation metrics, particularly the CPI and owner’s equivalent rent (OER). They discuss the lag in rent inflation data and its implications on current economic assessments. Mondragon also touches on his research on housing supply dynamics and the long-term impact of housing construction on prices. Following this, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research joins to share his market outlook for the second half of the year. He highlights the persistent inflationary pressures in the housing market and forecasts a continued bullish trend driven by a potential Fed pivot and credit expansion narrative. Pies emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in market dynamics, and discusses strategic asset allocation focusing on quality stocks and alternative investments. Guests: John Mondragon is a research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He works on the mortgage and housing markets and empirical macroeconomics. Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Learn more about John at: https://sites.google.com/site/johnnelsonmondragon/ Follow John on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/john-mondragon-250028138 Learn more about Warren at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437


    MacroCharts 1st podcast! Jun 21, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 06/21/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market trends, focusing on slightly lower-than-expected economic data, jobless claims, and recent activity in the tech sector, particularly NVIDIA's stock movements. Siegel also comments on the ongoing softness in the housing market and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential debate on the stock market. (11:06) Jeremy continues with the publisher of Macro Charts on Substack, who shares insights on market trends, technical analysis, and his investment philosophy. They discuss the recent performance of the U.S. market, and the positioning and potential of China as an investment opportunity. The guest talks about the importance of understanding market signals and avoiding noise in investment decisions. Macro Charts emphasizes the need to focus on significant trends and signals while also being adaptable to the fast-paced changes in market conditions. Guest: Macro Charts publishes global market research on Substack. Substack is an American online platform that allows journalists, writers, and other content creators to publish newsletters and establish a subscription-based audience. Learn more about Macro Charts at: https://macrocharts.substack.com/about Follow Macro Charts on X(Twitter): @MacroCharts


    Inflationary Waves and Case for $4,000 Gold Jun 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 06/14/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week by discussing the latest inflation data and the Fed meeting outcomes. Professor Siegel highlights that inflation numbers across various indices have met or fallen below expectations, and he anticipates a potential rate cut by the Fed based on the current data trends. Additionally, Siegel touches on the job market’s stability and the strong performance of specific tech stocks despite a narrow market rally. (10:04) Jeremy continues the conversation with Philippe Gijsels, who introduces his new book “The New World Economy in Five Trends.” They discuss the long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt, and the role of innovation in potentially countering these trends. Gijsels elaborates on the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment. The two also discuss the significance of geopolitical shifts, and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors. Guest: Philippe Gijsels is an enthusiastic investment professional, a rare exception who managed to turn his hobby into a profession. He studied economics and financial analysis, read tons of books on investing and many other topics and has now been working for the Fortis ‘family’, which was renamed BNP Paribas Fortis, for almost 20 years. The integration of the bank into the BNP Paribas group opened up a whole new world of contacts and information for him. Learn more about Philippe at: https://www.bnpparibasfortis.com/newsroom/press-release/philippe_gijsels_appointed_chief_strategy_officer_at_bnp_paribas_fortis Follow Philippe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/philippe-gijsels-5563131


    SCSP: A Vision for Competitiveness Jun 07, 2024
    Show notes

    Show from 06/7/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market data, highlighting unexpected job growth and its implications on the economy. Professor Siegel notes the market’s resilience despite bond market fluctuations, and emphasizes the potential impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and CPI reports. (10:47) Jeremy Schwartz continues the discussion with Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. They explore the strategic importance of technology and innovation in maintaining global competitiveness, particularly against China. Ylli discusses the parallels between their new document and the Cold War-era NSC 68, and outlines the critical role of AI and other emerging technologies in the geopolitical landscape. They also touch on the necessity for public-private partnerships and the bipartisan support needed to stay ahead in the technology race. Guest: Ylli Bajraktari is the President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. Prior to launching SCSP, Ylli served as the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining NSCAI, he served as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor LTG H.R. McMaster, held a variety of leadership roles for former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and served as Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey. Originally joining the Department of Defense in 2010, he served in the Office of the Undersecretary for Policy as a country director for Afghanistan, and later India. Mr. Bajraktari is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal – the highest award given to career DoD civilian employees. Learn more about Ylli at: https://www.scsp.ai/ylli-bajraktari/ Follow Ylli on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ylli-bajraktari-5b101326b


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