Yet Another Value Podcast

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Jon Cukiewar lays out the goeasy thesis $GSY $EHMEF Sep 01, 2021

Show notes

Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.
Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwar
Sohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 goeasy overview and background
15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers
18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity
28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation
30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?
35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?
38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns
43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?
44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?
55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition
59;40 Jon's closing thoughts

A $GOED investment thesis that WARRANTs a look with Thomas Braziel Aug 26, 2021

Show notes

Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.
Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel
My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade
3:10 $GOED overview
8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded
11:00 $GOED merger / financing background
14:00 The massive stock offering discussion
17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?
20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?
24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?
27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?
31:20 GOED's rebate accounting
34:20 Capital allocation going forward
37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards
38:30 GOED management's alignment
40:05 GOED's activist potential
43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case
48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch
49:30 How capital light will GOED be?
52:10 Quick Tesla discussion
53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)

Louis Camhi presents an ORIGINal investment thesis $ORGN Aug 20, 2021

Show notes

Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis.
Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Origin overview
4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative
6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials
9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?
11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up
14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength
18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?
20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology
25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price
27:50 Construction cost risk
32:25 Various upside and downside risks
35:00 Origin's financing plans
39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook
41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?
46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals
55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye
58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention
1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention

Mike Mitchell on his big bet on lumber and GreenFirst $ICLTF Aug 18, 2021

Show notes

Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.
Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.
*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.
Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...
My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 GreenFirst overview and background
6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?
7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management
13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*
17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe
20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions
22:50 Betting on great management teams
28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview
37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices
41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?
44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?
49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?
56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens
1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)
1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals
1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?

Sean Iddings on the bull case for $EXPI Aug 06, 2021

Show notes

Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.
Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi
Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_sean
My notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 What is EXPI?
8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives
10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)
18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?
22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities
26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats
29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?
35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?
45:50 Sean's closing thoughts

Chris Krug from Chatham Harbor Capital on Performant $PFMT Jul 28, 2021

Show notes

Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.
Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016
My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline
4:40 PFMT business overview
15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals
18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts
27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?
32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard
35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook
37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?
40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?
44:20 PFMT's capital allocation
47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?
49:15 What could kill this investment?
53:10 Closing thoughts

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Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Burford's bull case Jul 18, 2021

Show notes

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.
Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Burford Overview
6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?
13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?
19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?
23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?
37:10 How do you value Burford?
42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments
49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management
54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case
58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years
1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?
1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team
1:23:45 Closing thoughts

Adam Lindsay takes a TRIP through the LTRPA bull thesis Jul 14, 2021

Show notes

Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.
Adam's email: adam@pacp.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TRIP Overview
6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?
13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win
22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?
25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences
33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management
38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP
40:30 TRIP valuation
43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward
50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor
55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?

Kyle Cerminara on deSPACing OppFi with $FGNA Jul 08, 2021

Show notes

Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.
Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminara
OppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=exclude
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 OppFi overview
9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart
16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?
19:00 OppFi's valuation
22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?
27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone
29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF
35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?
40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February
45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?
49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate
50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation
55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?
58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia
1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts
1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?

Uncovering CATO's value with Mike Melby Jun 30, 2021

Show notes

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.
Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Cato Overview
5:45 Cato's target demographics
8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)
13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently
15:30 Discussing CATO's management
22:05 Valuing CATO's land
27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?
37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO

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