Yet Another Value Podcast

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Nitin Sacheti breaks down $VATE's SOTP Oct 26, 2021

Show notes

Nitin Sacheti. CIO of Papyrus Capital and PM at ARS Investment Partners, breaks down his thesis for Innovate (VATE). VATE used to be known as HCHC. HCHC was a mishmash of interesting but disparate assets with a huge cost base. Following an activist battle in late 2019 / early 2020, a new management team was brought in and they have sold off noncore assets while dramatically reduing corporate overhead. Nitin believes the remaining assets are all uniquely valuable, and each could be worth more than VATE's current market cap on their own. With several looming catalysts and inflection points, Nitin thinks the next year or two could cause the market to rerate VATE closer to its intrinsic value.
My thread on $VATE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1452377035897200653?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 VATE Overview
3:05 Segment #1: DBM Overview
5:15 Segment #2: Life Sciences Overview
7:15 Segment #3: Broadcasting Overview
12:10 Discussing VATE's new management team
21:45 Breaking down the Broadcast business
30:00 Pushing back on the broadcast business plan
35:50 How to value broadcast's spectrum
37:55 Is broadcast spectrum still valuable in a 5G world?
42:20 Discussing DBM's moat and value
47:40 What does R2 (life science's main asset) do?
53:20 Walking through VATE's SOTP value
1:00:50 How to look at VATE's recent related party deals
1:05:25 Discussing VATE's chairman and largest shareholder
1:08:15 What's the endgame for VATE?
Additional disclaimer: Today’s discussion may contain forward looking statements all statements made that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainty; actual results may differ materially. Please refer to ARS's website for important legal and disclosure information: www.arsinvestmentpartners.com

Felix Narhi discusses Stitch Fix $SFIX Oct 20, 2021

Show notes

Felix Narhi, CIO and Portfolio Manager at PenderFund, discusses his investment in Stitch Fix (SFIX). Key topics include what Stitch Fix's Act 2 looks like, why negative anecdata from first time users doesn't worry Felix, and what separates Stitch Fix from other online retailers.
Felix's Q2 letter: https://www.penderfund.com/commentaries/the-managers-commentary-q2-2021-2/
My SFIX tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1450509121661308928?s=20
Felix's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PenderFelix
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 Stitch Fix Overview
2:40 Addressing the negative anecdata
6:30 What does SFIX's transition to Act 2 look like?
9:10 Why is SFIX's data and data scientist focus an advantage?
16:50 What would an Act 3 look like?
19:35 Is it concerning Katrina Lake (the founder) stepped down as CEO?
23:45 Discussing the stylist hours worked controversy
31:30 Stitch Fix's inventory changes
35:30 Will brands pull from Stitch Fix at some point in the future?
41:15 Will Stitch Fix ever charge for the data they give brands?
44:30 Why isn't Stitch Fix growing faster?
49:50 Quantifying Stitch Fix's valuation
54:20 Stitch Fix's private market and strategic value
57:30 Does Stitch Fix need physical locations?

Randy Baron discusses Renalytix $RNLX Oct 14, 2021

Show notes

Randy Baron, one of the most popular YAVP guests, returns to discuss his investment thesis on Renalytix (RNLX). Randy sees similarities between RNLX and EXAS, which was a controversial stock that has rocketed over the last few years as the company's diagnostic product gained momentum. While not without risk, Randy thinks RNLX could be even bigger if successful as they are attacking the much larger Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market, and he discusses all of the signs he sees that the company is about to inflect.
Randy's first appearance on Amyris (AMRS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKxUHfCoQQ&t=1s
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 RNLX overview
8:55 Where does RNLX fall into CKD?
14:00 Why now is the time for RNLX in CKD
20:40 How RNLX can operate even without MICT
24:30 More on RNLX and Medicare
25:30 When will RNLX get FDA approval?
33:40 What if RNLX doesn't get FDA approval?
37:30 RNLX's CEO and founder, James McCullough
43:40 Why is RNLX so under the radar?
46:40 Comping RNLX to Theranos
50:00 Randy's closing thoughts

Tim Weber is bullish $AMPY despite the oil spill Oct 08, 2021

Show notes

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).
AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!
Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Extra Disclosures
3:10 AMPY Overview
6:25 Diving into the spill
9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent
15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?
20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?
22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment
22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity
28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?
30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?
33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-10
39:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?
44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault
46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?
50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?
56:00 Tim's closing thoughts

Leo Kang from Plum Capital on $ATTO Sep 30, 2021

Show notes

Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.
Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at...
My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 ATTO overview
3:15 ATTO's ownership history
7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell
9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive
13:50 Discussing valuation
15:30 ATTO's operating momentum
18:30 What does ATTO do?
22:30 How does ATTO compete with?
24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?
28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?
33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?
37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract
40:20 Comping peer multiples
43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?
46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.
50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk
52:55 Closing thoughts

Ben Claremon on $LUMN Sep 27, 2021

Show notes

Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.
Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU
Ben's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Lumen Overview
5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?
13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives
19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?
25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation
35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?
37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts
39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?
47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)
54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)
1:03:25 Closing thoughts

The Bear Cave is Watching $YOU Sep 24, 2021

Show notes

Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports.
The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...
My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Clear Overview
3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?
4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?
9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?
11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession
13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating
21:10 How Clear calculates their member count
23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?
27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles
29:55 Clear's growth opportunities
33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?
34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?
36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?
41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners
43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?
48:30 Closing thoughts

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel on their speculative deep value play, $AAMC Sep 10, 2021

Show notes

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.
Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20
Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMk
Thomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMA
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 AAMC overview
6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies
7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?
11:40 Bill Erbey's background
16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition
23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT
28:00 Discussing a fix and flip
34:55 Other possible deals
36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit
41:55 AAMC's cash burn
43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?
45:00 Closing thoughts

Kyler Hasson helps me bag hold $ATUS Sep 08, 2021

Show notes

Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.
My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20
Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/altice
My write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stock
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:23 ATUS overview
2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 2018
4:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing
7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter
11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?
21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers
23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers
28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?
31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?
37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy
44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts
47:45 What could break the cable thesis?
56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk
58:30 Cable regulatory concerns
1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts

Brian Laks covers the #uranium and Nexgen bull cases $NXE Sep 04, 2021

Show notes

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.
Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaks
Kuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 Uranium overview
2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?
5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve
7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance
10:15 Uranium's cycles since 2000
15:15 Why is the cycle happening now?
19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?
25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?
30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust
40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview
46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine
49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine
52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions
56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?
58:40 Nexgen's base case upside

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