Unhedged

Latest Episodes:

The case for a soft landing Aug 01, 2023

Show notes

Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The billionaire charged with insider trading Jul 27, 2023

Show notes

Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Big week for central banks Jul 25, 2023

Show notes

Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The private credit boom Jul 20, 2023

Show notes

As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum.

Links:

No, private credit markets aren’t really that big

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Getting inflation wrong Jul 18, 2023

Show notes

Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The 2023 Unhedged stock draft Jul 13, 2023

Show notes

Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why the bond market matters now Jul 11, 2023

Show notes

The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit.

Links:

- Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ era

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Harry Markowitz found a free lunch in finance Jul 06, 2023

Show notes

Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk.

Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters).

Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce.

Links:

- Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will empty offices hurt the US economy? Jun 29, 2023

Show notes

The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy?

Links:

- Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Does Japan’s stock market rally have legs? Jun 27, 2023

Show notes

Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital.

Links:

Read the Unhedged newsletter on Japan

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.