Unhedged

Latest Episodes:

Three markets we’re watching Oct 10, 2023

Show notes

Conflict in the Middle East is dominating the news this week. Today on the show, we’re looking at three markets that traditionally respond to disruption: oil, the yen and gold. Also, we go long training for marathons and short the next 10 years for private equity.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Biden scorecard Oct 05, 2023

Show notes

We don’t really do politics, but with election season underway, candidates are arguing about the American economy. Incumbents say it’s terrific. Challengers say it’s awful. Which is it? Today on the show, we look at the economy from several viewpoints and try to figure out which is more accurate. Also we go long Q3 earnings and short coverage of Sam Bankman-Fried.

Links:

Today’s Unhedged newsletter

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The increasingly odd bond market Oct 03, 2023

Show notes

The 10- and 30- year Treasury yields just hit their highest levels since 2007, sending prices down. And at the same time, equities moved in the same direction. That’s not supposed to happen. Today on the show, we try to figure out what is happening and why. Also we short our previous long on Three Arrows Capital and go long the Japanese yen.

Links:

Please join the FT and Nikkei for a webinar on the revival of the Japanese stock market on Wednesday October 11 at 14:00 London time: japanesestockmarketrevival.live.ft.com

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How high, and for how long? Sep 28, 2023

Show notes

The markets tried denying that the Federal Reserve really would keep rates “higher for longer”. But in the past week, equities and debt finally seemed to accept that high interest rates are here to stay. That means changes in the prices of assets, but it also has a lot of implications for everyone from tech start-ups to small countries with big loans. Today on the show, we try to think about the new world of high interest rates. Also, we go short small cap stocks and long London’s grocery stores.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The strong US dollar gets stronger Sep 26, 2023

Show notes

The US dollar has been on a tear, just reaching a six-month high. It might be a sign investors and traders are getting used to the idea that US interest rates will be “higher for longer.” Today on the show, we look at the greenback’s continuing strength and try to understand how it will affect global markets. Also, we go long London and long Jamie Dimon’s interest rate calls.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Well, actually: Our ‘Dumb Money’ movie review Sep 21, 2023

Show notes

Dumb Money, out this week, stars Seth Rogen, America Ferrera and several very tricky finance moves. We liked Seth and America, but we definitely have questions about the portrayal of clearing houses, order flow, and stock dilution. If you’ve watched Star Wars and wondered how the Millenium Falcon could carry enough fuel to travel at the speed of light, this episode is for you. Also we go long Jay Powell and long auto workers.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Basis trade freakout (low key) Sep 19, 2023

Show notes

Hedge funds are piling into the basis trade — a bet on the difference between the price of Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures — and they are levering up, too. Today on the show, we ask: Are we watching genius at work? And if not, how much is this all going to cost? Also, we go long all the other central banks and short comedians from Sacramento.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bonus Interview: Robyn Grew, Man Group CEO Sep 18, 2023

Show notes

Robyn Grew is the new CEO of the Man Group, which manages more than $150 billion over multiple hedge funds. On September 3, she joined Katie Martin, the FT’s Markets Editor, at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House in north London. Perched on high stools behind a kitchen counter meant for a cooking demonstration, Grew and Martin discussed how the end of the low-inflation era has forced a rethink for everyone from retail investors to managers of sophisticated hedge funds.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Three IPOs test the market Sep 14, 2023

Show notes

As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A Tale of Two Housing Markets Sep 12, 2023

Show notes

Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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