UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview Apr 12, 2024

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We recap the week that was, including a look at the March CPI print and the potential implications to monetary policy (including a review of CIO’s rate cut expectations). We also recap remarks from this week’s Fed speakers, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Washington Weekly Podcast: Ukraine Aid, House Speaker Johnson, Technology export controls Apr 12, 2024

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Our conversation revisits ongoing debate up on Capitol Hill over aid packages for both Ukraine and Israel, and what this all could potentially mean for House Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure. We also touch on renewed bi-partisan efforts within the US Senate to stem advanced technology sharing with US adversaries. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices, policy, and politics' Apr 12, 2024

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ECB President Lagarde signalled nothing markets did not already know yesterday. Rate cuts are coming. Economically, the dissenters on the governing council are probably correct and rate cuts would be better now—but precise timing on monetary policy is less important when the objective is cyclical (precision matters when the aim is liquidity or managing disorderly markets).

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation comes unstuck' Apr 11, 2024

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Inevitably markets reacted to US consumer price inflation headlines, but the details did matter. There is very strong evidence against inflation stickiness. Aside from rents and fictitious owners’ equivalent rents, there is deflation in almost every consumer price subcategory somewhere in the US. With collapsing clothing prices in Tampa or plunging communication prices in Chicago, it is difficult to argue that structural inflation stickiness exists when every key sector has deflation somewhere in the country.

Talking Markets ‘Equities edition’ with Melda Mergen (Columbia Threadneedle) & David Lefkowitz (UBS CIO) Apr 10, 2024

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With a strong Q1 behind us, Melda and David outline their thoughts on current valuations, along with a performance outlook for US equities. We also cover notable headwinds to performance and discuss positioning preferences within the US and around the globe. Featured are Melda Mergen, Global Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Details, details' Apr 10, 2024

Show notes

US March consumer price inflation data is due. Inflation is a complex subject (reasonably priced, widely available books could be written about it). Sadly, the world of hashtag economics reduces everything to a single data point (or at best, two). However, the details today really do matter.

Top of the Morning: Introducing the ‘Longer Term Themes Quarterly’ Apr 09, 2024

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Each quarter we will dive into what’s new amongst the six thematic focuses of the UBS Chief Investment Office, as outlined within the new Longer Term Themes Quarterly publication. Our inaugural conversation focuses on how the ‘space economy’ intersects with one of the six thematic clusters, security & critical infrastructure, along with potential implications of the 2024 election outcome to the space economy. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fed speakers confirm your beliefs' Apr 09, 2024

Show notes

The market calendar is mainly noise. Quite a lot of that noise has come from Federal Reserve members. Investors can pick whichever view they want, to confirm whatever preconceived policy views they hold. Recent remarks offer a choice of three rate cuts, vigilance against inflation, or too soon to cut rates. The range of views matters less than in the past, given the Powell Fed’s weird unanimity of decision-making.

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Clayton Triick (Angel Oak) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) Apr 08, 2024

Show notes

Our conversation focuses on the landscape for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including thoughts around investment considerations. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade and tensions' Apr 08, 2024

Show notes

Markets await US March consumer price inflation data, due for release on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s 2022 policy errors elevated the importance of consumer price inflation, and thus downgraded the importance of actual, real-world inflation. The details of the inflation data may be important. City-based inflation figures, and the trends in price levels (and inflation) for high frequency purchases are politically relevant ahead of the November elections.

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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