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    Business

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think – not just what they trade.
    Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
    No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators – revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
    If you’re building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise – this is your edge.
    Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
    🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.

    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft. Richard Brennan Sep 26, 2021
    Show notes

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
    • Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
    • How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
    • Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
    • How investment terms can often create communication barriers
    • Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

    https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

    02:25 – Macro recap from Niels

    04:10 – Weekly review of performance

    11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager

    19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’

    42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ & ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on

    56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’

    01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio

    01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski Sep 19, 2021
    Show notes

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.

    You can find Mark’s latest writings here.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
    • How to spot future star performers in advance
    • Unconventional approaches to market correlations
    • The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
    • Why investors tend to copy their peers
    • Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
    • How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

    04:28 – Macro recap from Niels

    06:15 – Weekly review of performance

    11:21 – Q1, Q2 & Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?

    27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon

    57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process

    01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft. Jerry Parker Sep 13, 2021
    Show notes

    Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.

    Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • The case for longer-term strategies
    • Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
    • How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
    • Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
    • How to prevent cyber attacks
    • Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Jerry on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Intro

    01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

    02:26 - Macro recap from Niels

    04:43 - Weekly review of returns

    15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting

    23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them

    32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks

    37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging?

    41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules

    44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise

    47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon

    49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic

    56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification

    01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert Sep 06, 2021
    Show notes

    Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
    • Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
    • Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
    • Some good measures for monitoring risk
    • Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
    • Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
    • How to approach negative interest rates with your broker

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Intro

    01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts

    03:21 - Macro recap from Niels

    05:38 - Weekly review of returns

    18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests

    26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?

    41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?

    45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?

    47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?

    51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?

    57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets

    01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan Aug 29, 2021
    Show notes

    This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following
    • Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live
    • The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers
    • Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop
    • What information to look for in a backtest
    • How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

    03:47 – Macro recap from Niels

    05:57 – Weekly review of performance

    10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers

    13:34 – Q1; Louis: Do you recommend starting a new model with lower leverage, so that it has time to adjust to the markets?

    20:02 – Q2; Aaron: If you had to choose a different strategy to complement your main Trend Following strategy, which one would you choose, and why?

    25:03 – Q3; Graham: How much margin do you use on different instruments? What total portfolio risk-to-stop do you recommend?

    35:23 – ‘The good, the bad, and the ugly’ of backtesting

    52:50 – How to make a backtest as objective and robust as possible

    01:25:49 – Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft. Richard Brennan Aug 22, 2021
    Show notes

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs
    • How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'
    • The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system
    • Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'
    • Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes
    • Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions
    • Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

    02:31 – Macro recap from Niels

    11:17 – Weekly review of performance

    17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?

    22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?

    32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the terms ’non-linearity squared' and ‘pyramiding’

    01:02:36 – Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft. Mark Rzepczynski Aug 15, 2021
    Show notes

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of
    • How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system
    • The true definitions of liquidity
    • Futures markets as the most liquid in the world
    • Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important
    • The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
    • Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

    02:57 – Macro recap from Niels

    04:37 – Weekly review of performance

    09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement

    18:11 – The different types of liquidity

    29:50 – How to measure a market’s true liquidity

    01:01:37 – Integrating ESG into Trend Following

    01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft. Jerry Parker Aug 08, 2021
    Show notes

    Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.

    Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures
    • Thoughts on autocorrelation
    • The benefits of trading a wide range of markets
    • How over-optimisation can result in underperformance
    • Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental
    • Why your rules are more important than any one position
    • How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Jerry on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Intro

    04:11 - Macro recap from Niels

    04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

    05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum

    08:34 - Weekly review of returns

    10:21 - Where does the edge in Trend Following really come from?

    17:13 - Market selection and utilising auto-correlation

    26:40 - Q1; Mark: What are some of the things about Systematic Trading that you can only learn from experience?

    34:48 - Q2; Stacius: When do you know that a strategy is robust, without doing a backtest?

    38:19 - Jerry’s favourite measurement of risk-to-reward

    51:21 - ‘Loose pants fit everyone’

    53:51 - Deciding whether to trade in the Chinese futures markets

    55:56 - CTAs utilising ETFs

    01:02:05 - The benefits of being an amazing ‘quitter’

    01:05:29 - Trend Following performance during different interest-rate periods

    01:07:22 - Winton’s positive recent positive comments on Trend Following

    01:08:57 - Transtrend’s recent article on volatility and how it should affect your models

    01:12:59 - Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert Aug 01, 2021
    Show notes

    Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • How effective Backtests can be
    • Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
    • Ethereum futures
    • Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
    • Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
    • Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
    • How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Intro

    01:44 - Macro recap from Niels

    04:41 - Weekly review of returns

    10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models

    13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?

    29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?

    36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak?

    44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI?

    49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts

    58:48 - Benchmark performance update

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan Jul 25, 2021
    Show notes

    This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    In this episode, we discuss:

    • Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy
    • How to profit across multiple timeframes
    • How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods
    • Average win rate versus average loss rate
    • Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors
    • Trailing stops and risk management
    • How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

    02:18 – Macro recap from Niels

    04:23 – Weekly review of performance

    10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?

    12:40 – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I manage risk from unrealised profits & losses?

    23:35 – Extracting an edge from markets

    42:22 – Analysing win/loss rates

    52:00 – Stops and position sizing

    56:42 – Benchmark performance update

    57:45 – Some big announcements

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


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