Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI234: Trend Followers are minnows, not whales ft. Rob Carver Mar 11, 2023

Show notes

Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series

04:57 - Performance update

09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting

16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems?

18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting?

22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up?

26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow

39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest

44:22 - Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract?

46:14 - Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to a multi-strat CTA?

47:52 - Q5.3, Matthijs: Why limit trend following to a small part of your portfolio

49:35 - Rob's article in FT

58:27 - Investor survey from BNP with predictions for 2023

01:00:49 - Diversification across instruments

01:06:49 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM36: Galactic Macro, UFOs & Balloon Encounters ft. David Dorr Mar 08, 2023

Show notes

What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 - Introduction to David

05:43 - A touchy subject

12:48 - The Tic Tac incident

19:37 - The Navy ships incident

24:17 - What is Area 51?

27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq?

28:29 - The New York Times article

30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important?

34:40 - Connections in the UFO network

38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G

41:50 - Are they saving us from ourselves?

43:20 - From rockstar to UFO researcher

48:47 - The importance of Jay Stratton

51:58 - Whistleblower protection laws

55:04 - The Wilson Davis memo

57:18 - What about other parts of the world?

01:02:11 - What's up with the balloons

01:04:25 - Why is this happening now?

01:09:35 - The best piece of evidence?

01:11:57 - What are being impacted?

01:16:58 - What keeps David up at night?

01:19:03 - Why not?

01:21:10 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners Mar 06, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more.

DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about DG Partners.

Episode Timestamps:

02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners

03:38 - Their road to trend following

12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following

16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

19:10 - The dual mandate

22:51 - The trend following narrative

27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following

30:24 - Need for speed?

38:13 - How many markets do they trade?

40:16 - Rethinking volatility?

43:01 - Their execution process

44:00 - Their view on CTA replication

47:39 - Risk management

51:36 - The state of liquidity

59:36 - The absence of pain

01:00:40 - Trend following in a broader portfolio

01:02:58 - Capacity in trend following

01:05:26 - Trend following disagreements

01:06:50 - Expectations for 2023

01:08:17 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI233: The Market Impact of CTAs & Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne Mar 04, 2023

Show notes

Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the broader perspective of the markets and the economy. We discuss how the unpredictablity of inflation and interest rates affect all parts of the economy and the transition from globalization to deglobalization, the size of the CTA and trend following industry and how articles on media like Bloomberg often creates a unrealistic narrative about CTAs through colorful headlines. We also discuss Why you should add trend following to your portfolio and How trend following is done, what we have learned from our recent conversations with the best CTA managers in the world and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:59 - Broad Macro observations

12:41 - How the economy responds to interest rates

17:03 - Moving in a new direction

20:54 - Reflecting on the month of February 2023

22:44 - Industry performance update

24:29 - Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets

31:41 - Colorful headlines

34:07 - Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs market footprint

43:45 - Why trend following & How to do it?

50:47 - Takeaways from the CTA series

01:02:51 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU136: Trend Following... C'est la vie ft. Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management Mar 03, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Capital Fund Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management

05:32 - Their investment philosophy

12:27 - Periods of under-performance

19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?

24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate?

31:32 - Their research process

36:22 - Enhancing a trend program

37:46 - Using machine learning

40:47 - Different types of trend followers

46:56 - Controlling the risk

51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns

54:44 - Achieving convexity

57:03 - Looking in hindsight

00:58:26 - Addressing rebalancing, capacity and fees

01:05:38 - Trend following disagreements

01:08:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson Mar 01, 2023

Show notes

Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nicky on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science

09:42 - The major players in the energy markets

12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial

18:43 - Forecasting the flow

25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?

27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets

30:22 - Risk considerations

32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action

34:28 - Measuring demand

36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research

39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply

41:33 - The impact of the dollar changes

45:33 - Measuring expectations

48:00 - The state and future of Ferguson's business

53:49 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU135: Moving Beyond Pure Price Trends ft. Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management Feb 27, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about AQR Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:50 - Introduction to AQR

04:12 - Their investment philosophy

08:47 - Risk premia strategies

11:55 - A historical perspective

13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe?

22:24 - Changing the narrative

30:41 - Being unconventional

35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data

39:22 - The future for economical trend following

42:55 - Their research process

47:05 - The managed futures space

48:39 - Pricing trend following

55:00 - The need for daily liquidity

57:32 - The portfolio construction process

01:00:12 - The pros and cons of replication

01:04:25 - Applying risk management

01:05:40 - Adding new markets

01:09:19 - The role of trend following

01:13:08 - Reaching the limit

01:16:05 - Trend following disagreements

01:17:52 - Expectations for 2023

01:19:47 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI232: Trend Following the Trend Followers ft. Nick Baltas Feb 26, 2023

Show notes

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show following a head scratching period for inflation and interest rates the past few weeks. We discuss the state of the environment for trend following and the best way to select a portfolio of markets to trade, the pros and cons of "trend following the trend followers". We also reflect on Katy Kaminski’s take on Crisis Alpha and discuss the evolution of trend following and how it changes the way strategies are designed, why being too concerned about the Sharpe may impact your performance in unexpected ways and why it is important to be aware of your own biases and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - Market recap

04:21 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series

09:10 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

13:17 - Industry performance update

15:53 - Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets

23:41 - Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers?

30:39 - Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM?

37:19 - Crisis alpha - lost in translation?

49:43 - How trend following has evolved

53:44 - Are we too concerned about the Sharpe?

58:55 - Changing the narrative

01:05:02 - Trend following disagreements

01:07:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU134: Crisis Alpha Revisited ft. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group Feb 24, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.

Episode Timestamps:

02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group

03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy

08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?

16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained

22:24 - The role of commodities in crises

26:22 - A need for speed?

32:20 - Capping the equity beta

39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication

44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool

48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated

50:02 - CTA style factors

56:16 - All about bonds?

59:00 - An uncertain world

01:02:38 - The signs of change

01:06:23 - Trend following disagreements

01:09:03 - Expectations for 2023

01:10:52 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU133: How to deliver Convexity ft. Nigol Koulajian & Mike Harris of Quest Partners Feb 20, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by Nigol Koulajian and Mike Harris from Quest Partners, for a conversation on how they use a research driven, quantitative and systematic trading approach to generate alpha. We discuss how they generate convexity and why they have chosen to focus on short-term time frames, why they believe some investors have become too focused on Sharpe and how they use trend following and crowding in their process. We also discuss how they use an adaptive learning technique to understand markets whilst being aware of the dangers of machine learning, the power and importance of data and the potential risks of replicating managers, why liquidity is dynamic and very unpredictable and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Quest Partners.

Episode Timestamps:

02:08 - Introduction to Quest Partners

03:34 - Their investment philosophy

07:35 - A structural change in markets

15:04 - Too focused on Sharpe?

20:55 - Creating momentum

24:18 - A move toward multi-strat?

37:35 - Managing the crowd

39:13 - The persistency of market environments

41:45 - A type of machine learning?

44:12 - The source of opportunities

48:34 - The "D" word

53:30 - Thoughts on CTA replication

01:00:12 - Being a short term manager

01:02:30 - Liquidity issues and changes in markets

01:09:15 - Trend following disagreements

01:12:46 - Expectations for 2023

01:14:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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