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    Business

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think – not just what they trade.
    Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
    No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators – revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
    If you’re building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise – this is your edge.
    Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
    🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.

    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court Apr 03, 2023
    Show notes

    Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Learn more about Florin Court.

    Episode Timestamps:

    02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach

    03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture

    07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?

    15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk

    18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times

    22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha

    29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets

    33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets

    36:41 - From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Alternative Markets

    40:10 - Working with Trend Following: Tips and Best Practices

    47:33 - Managing Risk: An Inside Look at Florin Court's Process

    52:06 - The Importance of Macro Awareness in Trend Following

    56:02 - ESGs and Investing: A New Frontier?

    58:12 - Living the Abu Dhabi Lifestyle

    01:01:26 - Factors Impacting Performance: A Closer Look

    01:04:54 - The Art of Navigating Different Opinions

    01:08:15 - Concerns & Opportunities in 2023: What to Watch Out For

    01:11:13 - Thank You for Listening: Closing Remarks

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan Apr 02, 2023
    Show notes

    Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    03:16 - What happened this week?

    08:34 - Unusual moves

    15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness

    20:44 - Industry performance update

    22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events

    27:17 - Keeping things simple

    30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio

    34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager

    38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio

    49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation

    55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?

    01:02:39 - The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator

    01:12:15 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar Mar 29, 2023
    Show notes

    Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book

    11:42 - What will the new world bring?

    17:01 - The problems with Big Food

    21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?

    28:08 - A realistic solution?

    31:14 - A passion for manufacturing

    37:22 - The pendulum is swinging

    38:47 - An era of Hyper Localization

    42:05 - The power of Additive Manufacturing

    45:20 - The role of Data & the Story of Audrey Tang

    55:15 - The 100 homes project

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica Mar 27, 2023
    Show notes

    Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Learn more about Quantica Capital.

    Episode Timestamps:

    02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital

    05:04 - Their investment philosophy

    12:31 - What makes them unique?

    17:09 - Reacting to trends

    19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?

    23:33 - Looking Sharpe

    30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"

    35:12 - Dealing with shocks

    39:02 - The measurement methodologies

    43:14 - The role of correlation

    46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls

    53:09 - Important discoveries

    55:26 - Making adjustments in a larger portfolio

    59:11 - The time scale perspective

    01:05:07 - The pros and cons of CTA replication

    01:10:42 - Setting return expectations

    01:14:14 - Trend following disagreements

    01:15:45 - Expectations for 2023

    01:19:22 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan Mar 25, 2023
    Show notes

    Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes

    06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell

    09:38 - The geopolitical perspective

    12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx

    18:03 - Weekly update

    20:24 - The volatility winter

    27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space

    30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?

    36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall?

    44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks

    48:09 - What are the signs to look for?

    50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect economic policies

    54:11 - The U.S debt ceiling

    58:36 - Gamma vs Vega

    01:03:01 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody Mar 22, 2023
    Show notes

    This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody

    10:19 - The development path of East Asia

    14:41 - The path that India did not take

    19:32 - The path they did take

    23:37 - Different versions of India

    30:37 - What is Hindutva?

    34:09 - The Guljurat model of development

    39:34 - A corrupted government

    46:17 - Finding the accurate data

    51:45 - Press freedom in India

    54:37 - India - the new China?

    56:53 - Building a better India

    01:02:23 - Key takeaways from Niels

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton Mar 20, 2023
    Show notes

    Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Learn more about Winton Group.

    Episode Timestamps:

    02:18 - Introduction to Winton

    05:05 - Their investment philosophy

    09:25 - Where does opportunities arise?

    10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?

    13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

    16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha

    20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative

    22:41 - What about the non-trend?

    25:22 - Need for speed?

    27:49 - Their research process

    31:19 - Accessing big events in markets

    35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning

    38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters

    42:23 - The risks of CTA replication

    44:57 - More markets = better?

    50:09 - Staying balanced

    52:23 - The strategies in a broader perspective

    54:18 - Working with clients

    55:22 - Their approach to risk manangement

    01:00:18 - The worst possible scenario

    01:01:24 - Preparing for the worst?

    01:02:37 - Question about capping the ability to go long stocks

    01:03:59 - How many trend followers do you need?

    01:05:14 - Setting return expectations

    01:07:33 - Trend following disagreements

    01:11:05 - Expectations for 2023

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski Mar 19, 2023
    Show notes

    Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:00 - What really happened this week?

    19:19 - Industry performance update

    25:21 - A tough week for trend

    36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror

    46:25 - SVB and trend following

    52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world

    59:20 - A changing world

    01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series

    01:13:33 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston Mar 15, 2023
    Show notes

    Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Follow Rory on Twitter

    Episode TimeStamps:

    03:19 - SPR - What and why?

    06:27 - Why crude and not refined products?

    09:34 - How is the SPR used?

    13:54 - Trading oil

    19:54 - The goal of the SPR market

    23:04 - How inventory drives oil price

    28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking

    29:43 - Theory vs. practice

    33:28 - The mega energy companies

    36:00 - Distortion in oil markets

    41:20 - Can volatility be profitable?

    47:35 - No specs = steeper or flatter?

    50:11 - Advice on using the data

    52:37 - Understanding signals in the oil market

    59:17 - Dollar Wrecking Barrell

    01:01:44 - Oil vs. gold and gas

    01:09:07 - What makes money in high vol regimes?

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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    TTU138: Need for Speed in Trendfollowing ft. Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO Mar 13, 2023
    Show notes

    Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Learn more about PIMCO

    Episode Timestamps:

    02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO

    05:11 - Their investment philosophy

    11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe?

    14:53 - A different Speed of trend following

    18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns

    22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces

    25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation?

    27:06 - Using machine learning

    28:04 - The role of bonds

    31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective

    33:07 - Their research process

    36:53 - Number of markets

    39:01 - Their view on CTA replication

    42:10 - Need for speed?

    44:28 - Different models for different markets?

    45:50 - Hitting the gas?

    48:02 - Cap the equities?

    49:14 - Adding non-priced based signals

    50:31 - How many strategies do you actually need?

    51:17 - What is second best Tail Hedge?

    52:15 - Framing the expected outcomes

    54:04 - Their sense on liquidity

    55:38 - Trend following disagreements

    57:05 - Expectations for 2023

    59:49 - Running trend following in a bond shop

    01:01:29 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


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