Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne Aug 05, 2023

Show notes

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?

03:54 - The big macro picture

12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming

17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?

21:13 - A fear of Japanification

26:28 - Industry performance update

28:39 - A period of dispersion

33:36 - Calculating the return expectations

41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following

47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments

55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook

01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification

01:08:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober Aug 02, 2023

Show notes

Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow David onTwitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober

07:13 - Constructing a new reality

11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism

17:55 - Understanding consciousness

23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind

27:14 - The shared death experiences

28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?

31:50 - The role of psychic abilities

38:42 - The road to studying UFOs

44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new

49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case

52:33 - Where is this all going?

56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?

01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital Jul 31, 2023

Show notes

Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.

Episode Timestamps:

02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital

07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings

12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy

17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering

22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program

26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters

32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?

39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process

44:41 - The challenges of working with clients

48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?

54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?

57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"?

01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements

01:06:42 - Excitements for the future

01:08:23 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas Jul 29, 2023

Show notes

Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

06:28 - Industry performance update

07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning

17:54 - Is one better than the other?

22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning

29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?

43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend

50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?

01:00:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook Jul 26, 2023

Show notes

Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook

05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy

09:06 - The outlook for real estate

12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI

16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?

18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term

21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment

25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power

28:14 - Opportunities in markets

30:50 - Investing in sports teams

38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry

45:40 - Bad actors in the industry

49:44 - 50 shades of risk

54:25 - Finding the right people to work with

57:40 - Lessons learned

59:17 - Finding the next big thing

01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins

01:04:30 - Advice for new investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker Jul 22, 2023

Show notes

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?

04:38 - Industry performance update

05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing

10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?

13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?

16:35 - The best approach to trading markets

23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks

27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading

30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?

33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?

40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?

44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?

46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees

52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees

54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?

01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs

01:12:24 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan Jul 19, 2023

Show notes

When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Paul on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan

13:58 - The current state of Syria

18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts

24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?

27:13 - The challenges that China is facing

29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?

32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?

35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference

44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics

50:57 - The risk of complex technology

56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders?

01:03:07 - Expanding our intuition

01:07:58 - Hopes for the future and book recommendations

01:16:32 - Thanks for listening

01:17:01 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver Jul 15, 2023

Show notes

Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Update of the week

07:50 - Industry performance update

10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?

18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?

28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?

34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems

40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!

45:12 - Trading safely

52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space

57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew

01:05:04 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King Jul 12, 2023

Show notes

HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book

09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money

13:21 - Can it be deflationary?

17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect

30:29 - The unfairness of inflation

37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?

46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias

51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?

52:49 - A collapse in money supply?

55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?

58:31 - The current state of supply conditions

01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation

01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan Jul 08, 2023

Show notes

Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - An update on the Australian economy

02:50 - A global macro perspective

05:38 - Industry performance update

08:39 - A bias towards long term models?

20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect

25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole

26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets

39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems

54:05 - The stability of markets

57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets

01:00:32 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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