Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas Oct 14, 2023

Show notes

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?

04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies

09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?

17:28 - Adding carry to trend

22:52 - How to use utility functions

25:08 - Defining the variables

28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy

36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies

40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks

47:48 - Skewness in commodities

54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski Oct 11, 2023

Show notes

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Troy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski

11:36 - A top-down macro perspective

19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio

26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?

30:47 - Analyzing the alt space

35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate

40:00 - An overweight of privates?

44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?

46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space

52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio

55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?

57:15 - Troy's perspective on AI tools

01:00:25 - Advice for other investors

01:02:54 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne Oct 07, 2023

Show notes

Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?

06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?

10:45 - Who is to blame?

15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures

20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?

21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy

25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time

30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry

37:01 - A case of market segmentation?

40:00 - Are ETFs the future?

46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe

52:24 - A discussion on fees

54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?

58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann Oct 04, 2023

Show notes

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann

04:05 - The global macro perspective

08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds

12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues

21:35 - Is this inflation different?

28:15 - The lag of structural effects

32:04 - The age of abundance

36:45 - Time to shift back to active management

43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy

52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us

01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?

01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear

01:03:21 - Final thoughts

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski Sep 30, 2023

Show notes

Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?

07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees

19:13 - Industry performance update

22:28 - How is the industry holding up?

25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space

28:55 - Performance numbers

30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same

41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable

46:42 - How psychology impacts markets

53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower

59:49 - A chronological snobbery?

01:04:03 - Important announcement

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson Sep 27, 2023

Show notes

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Helen on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson

06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?

10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency

17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?

21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy

25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?

29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?

34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?

37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?

42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?

44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?

48:35 - A challenged dollar?

53:16 - Is this time different?

57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne Sep 23, 2023

Show notes

Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?

04:55 - Industry performance update

08:16 - Living with high public debt

20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt

24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved

32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?

37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?

40:36 - Where returns may go from here?

48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?

51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event

59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes

01:00:29 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu Sep 20, 2023

Show notes

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Zongyuan onTwitterand Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation

37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis

58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds

01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams

01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’

01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas Sep 16, 2023

Show notes

Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes

10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following

19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)

23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation

27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers

35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space

38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?

41:40 - Paper from Transtrend

47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio

52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper)

57:08 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater Sep 13, 2023

Show notes

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?

04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability

06:19 - Being in the present

07:57 - Understanding the confidence map

12:08 - How to become confident

13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience

17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant

17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience

21:23 - Map it out

22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?

28:05 - The generational shift

30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?

36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?

42:57 - When does panic occur?

44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well?

48:34 - Thoughts on the current political situation

56:51 - Addressing major societal problems

02:03:56 - The challenges of fake news and media

02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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