Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski Sep 13, 2025

Show notes

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:44 - Industry performance update

12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?

22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?

24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion

30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?

32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark

35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs

39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA

42:30 - Every asset is an opportunity for trend

47:41 - Do we actually have enough data to evaluate the performance of alternative markets?

52:34 - Potential papers for the future

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong Sep 10, 2025

Show notes

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Anna on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong

03:57 - The current state of Fed

06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation

16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market

22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense

28:59 - The outlook of the housing market

31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?

34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates

40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance

48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed

51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward

54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level of debt and growth

58:47 - Trump wants a weak dollar

01:00:59 - Why Wong is optimistic about AI's impact on GDP growth

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert Sep 06, 2025

Show notes

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing.

And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:26 - Industry performance update

13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition

17:18 - Insights on carbon markets

21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?

28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system

34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system

47:27 - More diversified = more risk?

49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?

57:50 - Is trend following losing the battle against hedge funds?

01:02:49 - Trend following fees are changing

01:10:14 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz Sep 03, 2025

Show notes

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Sandra on LinkedInand read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz

08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology

12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?

14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are

19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?

22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect

25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your face

32:01 - How the power of algorithms can be used in a positive way

40:17 - A framework for avoiding the negatives of collecting personal data

44:06 - Solving the complex challenges of cookies (not the ones you eat)

51:14 - The rise of data unions and cooperatives

57:01 - How Matz protects her own data

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas Aug 30, 2025

Show notes

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - Catching up

05:02 - Industry performance update

13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing

24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?

32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?

38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks

43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes

49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen Aug 27, 2025

Show notes

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen

04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?

13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries

16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?

21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?

25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?

29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits

32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?

33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management

36:56 - It's all in the EUAs

40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management

45:39 - Wrapping up

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git Aug 23, 2025

Show notes

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?

07:10 - Industry performance update

09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it

16:33 - The drivers of spread

23:26 - Breaking markets into factors

26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades

31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?

36:47 - Key insights into FX trading

44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently

47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers

50:23 - The real process of an allocator

56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy

01:01:35 - You should just go play golf

01:04:21 - The tools of trade as an allocator

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave Aug 20, 2025

Show notes

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave

03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data

09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?

11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?

16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?

20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets

25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?

26:58 - Powell - in or out?

31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar

38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution

43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots

46:55 - We started an equity bull market in China - but one is involved

55:49 - The impact of tariffs on global macro

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI361: The Four Faces of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan Aug 15, 2025

Show notes

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire

06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity

14:23 - Industry performance update

19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover

21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following

27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following

34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives

40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration

48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum

50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits

54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing

57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry

01:02:00 - 5th debate: Speed of execution

01:08:01 - Why your approach to diversification is critical

01:18:36 - Brennan's preferences in market diversification

01:22:52 - Is ChatGPT5 actually a downgrade?

01:25:27 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO05: Volatility’s Blueprint: How Markets Really Move ft. Mandy Xu & Ed Tom Aug 13, 2025

Show notes

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

59:42 - Introduction to the series

02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?

10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool

18:55 - The history of the VIX index

23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon

26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)

35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets

42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options

50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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