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    Business

    Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory

    Uncover the truth behind the headlines and memes in an unbiased pursuit of what’s real. 

    From interviews and reactions to debates on the most important topics of the day, this podcast will challenge everything you know about current events, the economy, culture, and more. Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory helps you thrive in our complex world.

    Hosted by Tom Bilyeu, a prominent entrepreneur and co-founder of the billion-dollar company Quest Nutrition, Impact Theory covers what matters today. From geopolitics and economics to AI, science, future tech, and beyond, Tom breaks down complex topics into their fundamental elements. Learn how to see the world clearly so you can navigate even the most disruptive era. 

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    Copyright: © Copyright Impact Theory

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    Latest Episodes:
    Trump’s Greenland Deal, Exploding Oil Prices, and Why America’s Losing Its Edge | The Tom Bilyeu Show Sep 21, 2026
    Show notes

    What's up, guys? Today I am joined by Ryan, our channel moderator and clips editor.

    In this episode, Ryan and I break down what's happening behind the headlines, makes sense of the tangled alliances and global power plays, and reveals how you can position yourself strategically in the chaos.

    We dig into how information warfare and energy shocks could directly impact your future, why the AI revolution is at a dangerous tipping point, and what you need to know to navigate the next wave of disruption.

    You’ll leave this episode with an unshakeable understanding of the forces shaping the next decade and how to think two steps ahead.

    I'm Tom Bilyeu, and welcome to Impact Theory.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:

    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder

    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

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    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

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    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    The Gen Z Debate, Mamdani Sued For Grocery Stores, The Jury Problem the Clancy Retrial Exposed | Weekly Recap Sep 20, 2026
    Show notes

    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:


    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder


    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

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    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

    Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod

    ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod


    Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod


    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.



    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.


    The team reacts to the National Supermarket Association reportedly suing over Mayor Mamdani's city-run grocery store plan, and the host makes a mechanism-level case for why messing with the price structure backfires. His core argument: subsidizing groceries with taxpayer dollars removes the innovation impulse that has actually made food cheaper and better over time, and it weaponizes people's own tax money against the private grocers trying to compete—driving them out of business rather than helping anyone. He points to East vs. West Berlin as the natural experiment: where government controlled prices, shelves stayed sparse and quality stagnated for decades; where the free market ran, innovation in quality and distribution kept driving prices down. He illustrates the unintended consequences of subsidies with a personal story—how decades of government corn subsidies made high-fructose corn syrup artificially cheap, built the entire food-manufacturing supply chain around it (contributing, he argues, to America's health crisis), and how Quest had to engineer its own equipment to make a bar without it. His bigger thesis: the problem isn't capitalism or too few regulations—it's money in politics and regulatory capture that has "socialized" losses for banks, corporations, and individuals alike. What he wants is a return to lightly-regulated free markets (not libertarian anarchy)—strong antitrust to stop monopolies, room for the little guy to innovate—so prices keep falling and quality keeps rising. He closes on a fiscal-discipline point aimed squarely at voters: every "cheaper groceries" or "free childcare" promise makes the K-shaped economy worse unless someone says what gets cut to pay for it—and since politics is downstream of culture, politicians will keep giving us "free stuff" as long as we keep voting for it.


    All three hosts—Tom (Gen X), Drew (millennial), and Ryan (Gen Z)—get into a genuine, generation-spanning debate about whether Gen Z is headed for greatness or for trouble. It starts with New York lowering high-school graduation standards in the name of empathy, which Tom uses to argue that comfort makes people soft ("hard times make strong men")—that decades of prosperity have removed the impetus to push young people toward excellence, and that he worries Gen Z is being raised on participation trophies, blank-slate thinking, and an oppressor/oppressed lens rather than the idea that strength is a virtue. Drew pushes back optimistically: that Gen Z is getting "the end of the stick in every direction" and will become the baddest, toughest generation precisely because of it—already grinding through the high-expectations "A-minus" pressure, being told to go to college, and doing the hard things now. Ryan makes the sharpest counter: that the claim Gen Z doesn't build is unfair because they haven't been given the chance—no assets, no money, doors that were open to prior generations now closed by private equity and monetization; he cites applying to hundreds of jobs and getting a single interview, and a generation working multiple jobs just to make rent. Tom's fear, which he's careful to flag as possibly "algorithmic capture" or a bad read: that Gen Z is mapping onto activism-as-religion—putting its energy into political change and tearing down rather than building, and that "politics is downstream of culture," so the real leverage is building businesses, telling stories, and creating things that shift the culture. He anchors his challenge in Booker T. Washington ("learn to make bricks" rather than wait to be given a system) and argues the one fatal trap is bitterness and resentment, however justified the grievances. Ryan holds his ground—that engaging the political apparatus and protesting is Gen Z refusing to sit behind a screen and taking action themselves. A candid, unresolved clash that ends with the hosts joking that in 30 years, one of them will be proven wrong, one bitter, and one dead.


    The team digs into the Lindsay Clancy retrial—but the host's focus is less the case itself than what it reveals about jury integrity. After jurors from the earlier proceedings reportedly went public (talking to outlets like CBS) and, in the host's read, admitted to bringing a political agenda into deliberations, he argues this strikes at the foundation of the system: jurors are sworn to be impartial and to decide only on the evidence and the rules of the courtroom, and a juror who enters with a predetermined outcome—whatever the cause—means justice isn't being served. He's careful to note there's a legitimate debate to be had about the one juror who said he had "reasonable doubt" (since the standard is proof beyond a reasonable doubt), but says the truly alarming thing is jurors stating on camera that they were pursuing a political aim. He connects it to a second, chilling example: a Colorado DNA analyst whose work is now under review across a huge number of cases (reporting cited on air suggests over 1,000 cases retested and roughly 1,045 tainted over a decades-long career), raising the nightmare that a single compromised person inside the system can send the wrong people to prison—or let the wrong people out. His throughline is a worry about the broader culture: that if you can't assemble a jury pool that isn't ideologically captured, the promise of a fair trial itself is in jeopardy. The segment also touches on the human reality that jury duty is a burden few people want.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    The Alarming Truth About Superintelligent AI: Roman Yampolsky on Human Survival (Replay) Sep 19, 2026
    Show notes

    Let's revisit this eye-opening episode of Impact Theory, I sat down with Dr. Roman Yampolsky, one of the world’s leading experts in AI safety, to confront the rapidly approaching reality of artificial superintelligence. As AI systems accelerate toward capabilities rivaling and soon surpassing humanity, Dr. Yampolsky doesn’t mince words about the existential risks: he argues there’s a startlingly high probability that superintelligent AI could wipe out our species once it surpasses our control.

    We dove into the current state of AI—from the limitations of today’s models to the terrifying speed at which AGI (artificial general intelligence) is approaching—and question whether humanity stands any chance of controlling what comes next.

    Can we slow down the AI arms race, or is human nature itself fatally wired to push forward at any cost? Dr. Yampolsky explains why meaning, purpose, and even the future of employment are on the line, and what—if anything—can be done to safeguard our future.

    If you want to understand AI’s world-altering dangers, unpredictable opportunities, and the urgent ethical dilemmas at the heart of humanity’s most important technological leap, this is a must listen episode.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:

    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder

    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

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    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

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    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    France Prepares for War, AI Goes Rogue, and Hasan Piker’s Wildest Claims Yet | The Tom Bilyeu Show Sep 18, 2026
    Show notes

    What's up, guys? Today we're diving deep into the world of artificial intelligence, global instability, and the future of education with none other than Drew, my insightful commentator and my co-host, who cuts through the noise on everything from rogue AI to the realities of the American job market. Drew’s sharp analysis and fearless takes are exactly what we need right now as the stories around AI, politics, and global conflicts reach a boiling point.

    In this episode, we're breaking down why AI has everyone from Andrew Yang to Wall Street in a panic, what regulatory chess moves are really playing out behind the scenes, and how you can actually leverage technology to your advantage—no matter what the headlines say. We're also getting brutally honest about the real dangers facing America, from bureaucratic overgrowth to the education system that's failing our grads, and what you can do as an individual to not just survive, but thrive.

    If you want clarity on the madness, and real tools you can use to stay ahead while the world turns upside down, don't miss this one. I guarantee you'll leave with a new sense of what’s possible, what’s at stake, and how to keep your edge. I’m Tom Bilyeu, and welcome to Impact Theory.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:

    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder

    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

    Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/

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    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

    Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod

    ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod

    Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod

    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Planned Episode 9/17/2026 Sep 17, 2026
    Show notes

    Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu. In this episode, we dive into the Federal Reserve’s most recent – and highly anticipated – decision to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter-point, its first hike since July 2023. While policymakers cite robust economic data—resilient consumer spending, strong productivity growth, and steady unemployment rates—our discussion questions whether the Fed’s view reflects the reality felt by everyday Americans, especially those struggling on the so-called “wrong side of the K.” With supply shocks, ongoing geopolitical turmoil, and an energy crisis mounting, is the Fed’s approach truly tackling inflation or simply following a playbook that doesn’t match today’s unique challenges? We’ll break down why sentiment may matter more than statistics, the potential consequences of missing growth targets, and whether this rate hike is the right call in a deeply divided and uncertain economy. Plus, we bring in insight from Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University to explore what consumer confidence and labor force participation are really telling us beneath the surface. Stick around as we unpack the risks, the data, and what this all could mean for your financial future.


    Special thanks to Jeff Snider At Eurodollar University!

    https://www.youtube.com/live/sHNNc4eu4ls?si=MEMKjqwermrhSIi9


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:


    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder


    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

    Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/

    Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en

    Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu



    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

    Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod

    ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod

    Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod

    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Regulatory Capture: How Big AI and Washington Are Rigging the Game | The Tom Bilyeu Show Sep 16, 2026
    Show notes

    Good morning, everybody. Today we're diving into a story that is unraveling right before our eyes—the truth behind the AI doomer narrative that's completely consumed the headlines. I’ve been going deep, and I mean DEEP, into who’s funding this panic, who stands to gain, and how fear is weaponized at the highest levels to push for regulatory control and consolidation of power. This episode is all about following the money and exposing the shocking coordination happening in the world of artificial intelligence.

    Listen up: if you have any interest in how technology shapes our world, who makes the rules, and how you can navigate the coming storm, you cannot miss this one. We're highlighting the players behind Anthropic, dissecting how regulatory capture works, and laying out exactly what you need to know so that you stay in control—rather than being manipulated by fear.

    My goal is for you to walk away from this episode understanding not only the stakes of the AI revolution, but how to separate hype from reality in a world driven by narratives, money, and power.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:

    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder

    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

    Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/

    Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en

    Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu

    YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu


    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

    Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod

    ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod

    Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod

    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.


    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    They Are About to RESET Your Money — Pay Attention Sep 15, 2026
    Show notes

    On this episode of Impact Theory, we dive deep into the hidden shifts reshaping the global economy with Felix Bryn. With powerful forces at play—from political pressure on the Federal Reserve to global gold reserves flowing out of the U.S., sovereign wealth funds dumping American debt, and the rise of a new digital dollar infrastructure—Felix unpacks the four quiet levers that are fundamentally resetting the money system right before our eyes. Joined by insightful commentary, we unravel why traditional notions of "safe" investments may no longer apply, the critical role of the bond market, and what ordinary people can actually do to navigate this new financial landscape. If you want to understand how your money is being impacted today and what you can do to protect your future, this episode is essential listening.


    Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept

    Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod

    ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod

    Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod

    *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.

    Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always

    Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact and

    experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup

    Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial.

    Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:


    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder


    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    FOLLOW TOM:

    Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/

    Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en

    Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu

    YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu


    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Surrogate Scandal, Diesel Crisis, and Why Trump’s Skipping AI Calls | The Tom Bilyeu Show Sep 14, 2026
    Show notes

    What's up, guys? Today we are diving headfirst into the raging battle over the future of artificial intelligence. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic—is at the very epicenter of today's AI revolution, and he's pushing the conversation that has every tech giant, world leader, and entrepreneur on edge. Dario is a cutting-edge researcher, a pioneer of safe AI development, and right now, he's making global headlines calling for a dramatic slowdown in AI progress.

    We are literally standing at the edge of decisions that could shape human civilization for generations. Today, you'll hear why some of the smartest people in AI are sounding the alarm, what “slowing down” actually means for the industry, how open source and government control could impact innovation, and why all of this matters to you if you care about your career, your business, your freedom—even the survival of humanity as we know it.

    The battle lines between capital and government, and how you can prepare for the massive changes coming your way. Lock in.


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:

    Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder

    Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass


    Follow Me:

    Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/

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    The AI "Copied My Homework" Scandal, Why the Strait of Hormuz Is Spiraling Out of Control, and Other Global News| Weekly Recap Sep 13, 2026
    Show notes

    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:


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    The team digs into a strange and revealing controversy at the frontier of AI: a potential mathematics breakthrough where humans and AI are now fighting over who deserves the credit. For about a year, NYU mathematician Tristan Buckmaster and a researcher at Anthropic had been working on an obscure approach to one of the famous Clay Institute "millennium prize" problems (with $1 million on the line)—running their drafts through private OpenAI Codex sessions hosted on OpenAI's servers. When a step forward emerged (a result related to "blow-up" in the Euler equations of fluid dynamics), accusations flew that OpenAI's model had essentially "copied their homework"—learning from their private work and then producing the result itself. The host uses it to open up what he thinks is the defining debate of the era: when you collaborate with an AI, and it helps you reach an insight you genuinely pushed it toward, who owns the result? He walks through the emerging solutions—Alex Karp of Palantir's "put something in the middle" approach, versus self-hosting an open-source model behind your own servers with your own tuned "weights" so your inputs stay proprietary even as the world uses your outputs. He's candid that he's genuinely torn: as someone building his own project (Kaizen), he admits feeling the impulse to keep some paths secret for a six-month lead, while also arguing that since AI was trained on all of humanity, there's an obligation to keep letting it aggregate humanity's breakthroughs—especially in a field like medicine, where he shares a personal story about a family member's cancer and how siloed, firewalled medical data made coordination nearly impossible. His most provocative point is psychological: that the reason people aren't celebrating even a real (if modest) step forward is a raw human fear of being made to feel irrelevant—that "I can't let it be the AI that did this." He closes on his recurring throughline: rather than running to the government to regulate AI (which he thinks would hurt the open-source models that are the real check on Big AI), the open market and open source should be allowed to solve this—letting young upstarts protect their proprietary "weights" and compete, so a handful of giant companies can't hoard the breakthroughs.


    The team breaks down a sharp escalation in the Iran conflict and maps how it connects to a much bigger global picture. The immediate news: an intensifying tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC claiming its largest attack of the war (striking multiple vessels and claiming hits on US destroyers), the US reportedly sinking eight Iranian oil tankers over four days, and Iran launching 20 ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan—of which Jordan says 18 were intercepted and two hit empty desert, with no casualties reported. The host stresses a key caveat: with the IRGC claiming major damage and the Pentagon denying it, the truth is genuinely murky, and neither side's account should be taken at face value. He reads the "2-for-1" retaliation pattern and Rubio's "shoot at our ships and you lose tankers" posture as a deliberate US strategy of disproportionate response—while flagging the real risk that Iran is trying to bait the US into depleting munitions it may need for two other potential fights: a cornered, economically flailing Germany squaring off with a declining Russia, and the looming US-China collision. From there he lays out his central framework: that the US and China are two "wounded animals," both the largest economies, both feeling a narrow window, both pressing—China racing to divorce from the dollar (he floats his own contested theory that they may back the yuan with gold), reshore chip-making, and potentially move on Taiwan by 2027, because the deeper prize underneath everything is AI, and AI runs on chips. He argues energy undergirds the entire board, which is why the Strait, the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, OPEC fracturing, and the Venezuela play all matter, and offers his read on why the US actually entered Iran (securing GCC capital for the AI bet, under the banner of non-proliferation). He's candid about which parts are his interpretation, flags his gold-backed-yuan idea as highly contested, and lands on his recurring throughline: a multipolar world is coming, and the real question is what kind of "overlord" order the world ends up choosing—one you can vote out, or one you can't.


    The team connects a series of escalating global stories that the host argues are increasingly becoming one convergent conflict. First, Iran: the Revolutionary Guard reportedly fired hypersonic ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz—a dramatic escalation from base and drone attacks—with both ships evading and no Americans hurt, after which US forces struck and reportedly sank Iranian oil tankers. The host frames a country as most dangerous when it's weakest, and notes Bessent's argument that Iran is running out of the pre-purchased Chinese oil money keeping it afloat, meaning the coming months could get more dangerous before any off-ramp. Second, Europe: reports that Germany is moving toward direct conflict with Russia (closing Russian consulates, restricting entry after a drone incident), which could trigger NATO and pull in the US—complicated by the rise of Germany's AfD party (now reportedly the second-largest, around 23% to the leading party's ~30%), which has floated exiting the EU. Third, diplomacy: Witkoff and Kushner arriving to broker talks, with a reported 72-hour agreement between Putin and Zelensky not to strike each other's capitals (though front-line fighting continues and a broader ceasefire was rejected)—the host cautiously optimistic given their Abraham Accords track record, while noting their recent results have been thinner. Fourth, the US-Venezuela deal versus China, which claims its own competing, "internationally protected" interest there—prompting the host's blunt aside that "international law" is really just a function of who holds the most power. And finally, the bigger economic picture: a Nordic country reportedly selling ~$80B in US Treasuries, central banks buying gold in historic amounts (with gold reportedly overtaking US debt as the top reserve asset), and the resurfaced Ray Dalio warning about what happens when an empire has to start buying its own debt. The host's throughline: the US has a real opportunity—if it rebuilds a genuine moral center, restores fiscal discipline, and competes with China by being genuinely better for partner nations (Venezuela being the key test)—but the window is closing, and a multipolar world can deliver either the benefits of real competition or the dangers of everyone violently choosing sides.

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    You Are Having a Biological Experience: Tom Bilyeu on God, DMT & the Matrix in Your Skull Sep 12, 2026
    Show notes

    In this episode, I dive into my reaction to a thought-provoking video clip featuring Andrew Huberman and Steven Bartlett. The conversation focused on the way we shape our experience of reality, especially when it comes to questions of spirituality, religion, and the effects of altered states like psychedelics. One concept discussed was whether experiences like DMT trips or spiritual moments actually provide access to something beyond biology, or if they’re simply the result of neurochemistry—something I feel very strongly about.

    A key theme that emerged was questioning the literal truth of religious experiences and miracles. I explored my skepticism about whether anything truly occurs outside the laws of biology and physics, emphasizing that our brains craft our perception of the world, and that even the most awe-inspiring or seemingly miraculous events can usually be traced back to processes within us. The discussion also touched on how religion and awe may be evolutionary tools for cooperation and meaning, rather than evidence of a higher power.

    Several points were raised, including the dangers of confusing emotional reactions for truth, the importance of understanding we’re always having a biological experience, and the very real improvements people find in their lives when they adopt certain mindsets or practices like prayer or faith. Ultimately, this episode is an invitation to critically examine how we interpret our experiences—reminding listeners that while different mental frames can improve our lives, they are rooted in the biology that shapes everything we know and feel.


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