Show notes
Good morning.
Day four of Profit Activator week, and we're into number three.
Educate and motivate your prospects to meet you.
Everything up to here has been about getting the right hand in the air. Now we've got a bundle of people who raised it, and this is the most valuable part of the whole thing.
Let me set the context first, because I don't want to be misunderstood.
I am not saying take the long view. I'm not saying ignore the people who are ready today.
If somebody's ready to go right now, that's perfect. Let's go. I want to convert people as soon as we possibly can.
What I want you to see is what you're actually holding.
Because most advertisers approach this like a slot machine.
Pull the lever. Did somebody buy? No? Wasted money. Pull it again.
And if the machine pays out before the credit card bill is due, it was a good month. If it didn't, the leads were no good.
That's the whole model. Return on ad spend, measured by Friday.
Back in 1997 I was working out how to generate these leads, and I found a study that changed the way I look at all of it.
There was a company doing inquiry handling at an enterprise level. Millions of leads a year, across every industry you can think of.
And they ran what they called did you buy surveys.
They'd take a cohort of people who inquired about something eighteen months earlier, call them up, and ask exactly one question.
Josh, you came to the home show and asked about faucets. Did you buy any faucets?
Here's what they found.
At the eighteen month mark, just over half of the people who inquired about a thing had gone and bought that thing.
More than half. People eventually buy what they raise their hand about.
But only 15% of those buyers bought inside the first 90 days.
That's the number that reorganized my thinking.
85% of the value of the leads you generate today is 90 days or more away from you.
Now, 90 days feels like forever when you've just spent the money.
I saw it most with realtors. They wanted to run an ad, have somebody call this week, go and look at a house on Saturday, and put a sign in the yard on Monday.
Then I did this for enough other businesses to realize everybody's like that. Everybody wants the right now business.
I mentioned time travel the other day. Let's go back to it.
Imagine we could leave tonight at midnight and land a hundred weeks ago, and we could carry with us the list of every person who's going to sell their house over the next two years.
Everybody loves that idea.
But look at what you'd actually be holding. The person who sold last month? The moment you land, they're still 23 months away from doing anything about it.
You'd still be waiting. You'd just be waiting with certainty.
And certainty changes everything about how you behave in the meantime.
So the question you need to answer is not are these good leads.
Good lead is an emotional phrase. What people mean by it is somebody who's ready to buy right now, and anybody who isn't feels like a disappointment.
The objective question is what happens to this bundle of a hundred people over the next hundred weeks.
The studies say over half inside eighteen months. I like to be conservative, so I stretch the window to a hundred weeks and I round the number down to 50%.
Fifty people. Go and do that math on your own number. If your thing is $10,000, work out what that bundle is quietly worth to you.
Now, about the first hundred days.
I think of it as the Van Allen belt.
If you're going to space you have to get through that band of radiation and pressure first. That's the hard part, and it takes everything you've got. But once you're through it, it's effortless. You can go all the way to Mars.
Same here. Get through the first hundred days with a bundle of a hundred people and the rest of it costs you almost nothing.
Most people never get through the belt.
One of my quiet delights is looking up the people other advertisers gave up on.
They run ads for our sell your house for top dollar book. Leads come in at $5, $7, sometimes $10. Then they start calling everybody, looking for a listing today.
Around the 90 day mark they get antsy. Nobody's listed. These leads are no good. We'll spend the money somewhere else.
There's a fellow in Texas who did exactly that. Generated 130-odd leads and walked away from them.
Real estate is public record, which is the great gift of that market, so I can just look them up on Zillow.
At the eighteen month mark, 30-something percent of the people he abandoned had listed, or sold, or have their house sitting on the market right now.
He was standing on it the whole time.
And this is why I think in bundles and never in individuals.
One person is unpredictable. There's no useful way to say what one person is going to do.
A hundred of them is arithmetic. Fifty are going to do something over the next hundred weeks. Eight of them are going to do it inside the first hundred days.
Which gives you a real goal, and a much better one than chasing everybody. Find the eight.
So phase one of Profit Activator 3 isn't a tactic at all.
It's realizing what you've got. Treating a hundred people who voluntarily told you what they're thinking about as a capital asset, not an expense you have to justify by the end of the month.
Tomorrow we'll get into what you actually do with those hundred people.
Here's your nudge for today.
Take your last hundred leads, whatever they cost you, and do the arithmetic. Fifty of them buying over the next hundred weeks, at your price.
Then look at that number and ask yourself honestly whether you've been treating those people like an asset worth that... or like a lever you pulled that didn't pay out.
Show notes: https://deanjackson.com/podcasts/tol/087-100-leads-are-worth-more-than-you-think-heres-the-math/
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