Show notes
The adoption of electric vehicles continues to rise in Canada, with many automakers reporting their EV stock is completely sold out. This shift in social perception from being EV-hesitant to embracing their benefits seems like a big win for society, but are we really ready for this boom in popularity? Loren McDonald of EVAdoption has spent decades analyzing trends in EVs and charging technology, and he joins this episode of thinkenergy to share his thoughts. Related links https://evadoption.com/ https://evstatistics.com/ https://twitter.com/LorenMcDonald https://twitter.com/EVAdoptionTweet https://www.linkedin.com/in/lorenmcdonald/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/evadoption/ --- To subscribe using Apple Podcasts To subscribe using Spotify To subscribe on Libsyn --- Subscribe so you don't miss a video: Youtube Check out our cool pics on Instagram. More to learn on Facebook. Keep up with the Tweets. Transcript: Dan Seguin 00:06 This is thinkenergy, the podcast that helps you better understand the fast changing world of energy through conversations with game changers, industry leaders and influencers. So join me, Dan Seguin, and my co host Rebecca Schwartz, as we explore both traditional and unconventional facets of the energy industry. Hey everyone, welcome back. Get ready to start your engines folks. We've got the EV evangelist on the program today to talk about the current state and future prospects of electric vehicles in North America. Lauren McDonald, known to his followers, as the EV evangelist, has been in the electric vehicle advocates since 1990. Rebecca Schwartz 00:56 As our guest today, Loren will discuss why governments, businesses, the auto industry and the general public are or should be converting to this cleaner and more sustainable mode of transportation. Dan Seguin 01:09 I think we can all foresee that the mass adoption of EVs is imminent, and something that is going to transform the auto industry, but also many, many other sectors including energy. Rebecca Schwartz 01:24 Definitely. A lot has changed in the last few years when it comes to EVs. They were once viewed as an expensive novelty item and something you would buy and use only around the city as simply a secondary vehicle. But technology and attitudes have evolved. Dan Seguin 01:41 You're so right, Rebecca. A few years ago, there weren't a lot of models to choose from, and there still seem to be uncertainty about their viability. But all that is changing fast. General Motors recently announced that by 2035, their entire fleet of vehicles will be entirely electric. Rebecca Schwartz 02:05 And they're not the only ones. Nearly all major automotive companies are committing to electric vehicles, including legacy luxury brands. Jaguar is targeting 2030 to be fully electric. Bentley plans to only have electric and hybrid models by 2026, Mercedes Benz and Porsche also have 2030 in their strategic plans, and who knows, maybe by then I'll be able to afford one of them. Dan Seguin 02:31 I love that you're such an optimist, Rebecca. Even more stunning is that many automakers are reporting that they are completely sold out of their existing EV stock and are now either taking orders or due to demand not taking orders for the next few years. So here is today's big question. Are we finally seeing a social change that will drive electric vehicles into the mainstream? If so, what is behind the gearshift? And are we really prepared to accelerate from zero to 60? Rebecca Schwartz 03:15 Joining us from San Francisco Loren MacDonald of EVadoption.com is a lifelong advocate for the environment and has been analyzing EV and charging trends for decades. He's a thought leader, speaker and content marketer with a passion to help move the world to electric vehicles. Dan Seguin 03:35 Welcome to the show, Loren. Let's start with you telling us a bit about EV adoption. When did you start it? And what was this goal? Loren McDonald 03:46 Yeah, so first of all, thank you so much for having me. Excited to be on the thinkenergy podcast. So the derivation of EV adoption, so I was a lifelong marketer. I won't say how many but many, many decades as a as a marketing executive and marketing evangelist. And so I looked at sort of the EVs and where it was going with that kind of lens and context of it's really a marketing and behavioral economics question, right is of when will EVs cross the chasm into the mainstream if you're familiar with you know, the book and everything around crossing the chasm and so that's really what I saw was missing. You know, if you look at all of the the websites and everything like that, that were covering electric vehicles, it was all about the models and technical stuff. And most everybody was just pure EV advocates and sort of what I like to say sort of pejoratively fanboys right, and everything was going to be up into the right you know, on the on the chart and I'm like, actually, especially in America, you know, we have this thing called the middle of the country and pickups and you know, of late adopters and stuff. So I really wanted to solve and address that question of what are all going to be the hurdles, and the drivers of of sort of mass adoption of EVs. And so that was really sort of the point in goal of it. And it's, it's really taken off. Rebecca Schwartz 05:21 In 2018, you published your three part series on the 24 factors that will affect the rate of EV adoption. Of course, a lot has happened in four years. So how does your list of factors stack up in 2022? Has the needle moved? Or are you still seeing the same issues? 05:40 Yeah, so I would say that, you know, pretty much all of the issues are still there, it's just a matter of scale, some of them have become sort of more or less critical or unimportant. And let's take a look at one, Rebecca is that if you look at range as an example, right, so, uh, you know, in 2011, sort of the first full year that the Nissan LEAF was available in America, the first version, it's 73 miles of range, you know, we'd sort of laugh at that today, you can now get a Nissan LEAF with 225 miles of range, I think it is in the lucid air, you know, it's 520 miles of range, so and then you sort of overlay that with almost every survey of consumers done in the last, you know, half dozen years around EVs, and will, you know, take them to consider an EV or buy an EV, that, you know, that typically around half or more people say 300 miles 300 US miles, right? Because there's a global audience, I'm always be clear on that. And we're actually by the end of this year, we're going to average probably around 285-290 miles of EVs. Right? So we're not quite at that 300 miles, and there's still several below it, and several above it that's, you know, skew that average. But, you know, the first thing is fundamentally, we're switching from range anxiety, to charger anxiety, right? What's what's happening is we're getting close to that magic 300 number. And so most people now are like, yeah, I can buy an EV and and, you know, driving to Grandma's or Disneyland or whatever it is. But can I charge? And how long is it going to take me to charge? And what are the charges work and those kinds of things? So I think that's sort of the sort of the first thing. The second thing I'd say that sort of new, if you will, is I don't know that we necessarily predicted sort of the supply chain issues. Right? And not just, you know, wiring harnesses that are critical to EVs and chips that are critical to EVs. But the latest one that's really been the hottest topic recently is battery, supply chain and minerals, is there going to be enough, you know, lithium and sort of the different minerals that go into it. So that's one that we didn't see. And, you know, both of you are probably familiar with a lot of those charts that showed the price parity, right, that that the price of batteries and EVS and as would come down and and get get close in the next few years with, with ice vehicles, as we like to call them. Internal Combustion Engine, this industry loves acronyms, as you guys know. And there's been some recent studies that are showing that actually, battery costs are going up, right. And so we may not hit price parity until, like, you know, late this decade and stuff. So I know that was a lot. So I'll sort of stop there. But those are some of the I think the key key differences that I'm seeing Dan Seguin 08:49 What has been the most important or significant recent event, in your opinion, that will positively change the future for electric vehicles. 09:00 The I would say there's sort of two things that are that are kind of closely connected. One is the Ford F 150 Lightning, as you as you both probably know, you know, and pickups are pretty popular in Canada as well. But you know, the F 150, the regular F 150 internal combustion engine has been the top selling vehicle, not just pickup, but the top selling vehicle of any type in America, and actually the world for 40 straight years. And so, the fact that this sort of mainstream popular vehicle, a pickup truck, is actually and it's being delivered now, the first deliveries they're starting, like this week of the electric version, is I've called it this the game changer, the single most important EV in history, right? And you could make arguments for lots of different ones for different reasons right? But I think, to go mainstream this signals to those people in the Midwest as an example. Oh, I guess this isn't just for wealthy, you know, granola eating people in California. This is a work truck. This is, you know, this is actually acceptable. And the second part of it, obviously, which, you know, we'll we'll talk a bit about about more later, I'm sure is, you know, the bi-directional charging capability is sort of an eye opener. And then the last thing I would say is just sort of gas prices, right. And so gas prices, again, which I know we'll talk about some more, is making people more aware of alternatives to the internal combustion engine, and so EVs are kind of having their moment right now because of that. Loren McDonald 09:00 Okay, this next question is kind of fun, kind of Mad Libs style. I'm going to ask you to finish this sentence. You can't have electric vehicles without blank..? 11:03 Convenient access to reliable charging. Dan Seguin 11:06 Loren, you were recently interviewed in USA Today about range anxiety due to the lack of EV charging infrastructure. What do you think is hindering a massive North American installation of EV stations? What's the biggest hurdle? 11:24 So I actually don't agree with that assumption. There is you know, as as you probably know, there's about seven and a half billion dollars from the federal government that's going into building out infrastructure there's a lot of publicly held EV charging networks. I literally talk to companies every day that are looking to get into the EV charging industry, I have never seen, you know, one of the my quotes in the USA Today articles was that it's the wild wild west right now, it's this is literally the modern version of 1849, right of the Gold Rush. And that there is so many companies and entrepreneurs and billions of dollars going in. Because this is probably the single biggest business opportunity in the last 100 years, the combination of EVs and EV charging infrastructure, we're fundamentally changing. The, you know, the not only the power train of transportation, but how they're refueled, right with moving from, you know, gas, liquid fuel to electric fuel, right. And so there is just an inordinate amount of energy and focus and money going to it. My concern is, is that we're spending it the wrong way, we're making a lot of a lot of decisions. And we'll talk about this when we talk about Canada in a little bit, but most of the money in the US is going to building out the DC fast charging highway corridor networks, right, which are needed to get the consumers comfortable that they can go from, you know, Seattle to you know, somewhere in Montana or whatever, and stop along the way. And we need that obviously, at some level because people like to take road trips, but the bigger challenges are, you know, how do people charge every day? Right. And you know, there's these you know, your you know, your EV drivers and owners and you know, this for most people, you know, 90 to 95% of your charging is done at home overnight while while you're asleep. Except for those like in America, my estimate is about 40% of US households do not have convenient access to charging overnight, they live in an apartment, they live in a condo, maybe they live in, you know, Manhattan, or Boston or downtown San Francisco and so they don't have a garage, they they're on street parking, right. So, you know, almost half of US households do not have what most of us have, which is you know, we we come home, we pull in the garage, plug in our car, close the garage door, wake up in the morning with a with a full tank, if you will, right. And so if you think about getting over that, you know getting crossing that chasm, getting people over their hurdle of understanding, charging and, and losing sort of fear around it. We have to we have to solve those problems at the same time, right. And so if you look at the money being spent, by the by the you know, the federal government and state government, not enough is going to workplace is going to you know, the multifamily issue, off street parking on street parking, those kinds of things. So I don't think I don't I think the biggest hurdle is that we're not actually solving some of the bigger problems where we tend to be overly focused on sort of those high the highway corridor DC fast charging challenge. Dan Seguin 15:10 Pardon the pun, but who do you think should be leading the charge when it comes to charging infrastructures? Loren McDonald 15:18 You know, that's the $7.5 billion question. I guess we might might say it's a tough one. And I don't I'll answer it several ways. The first is consumers, right. So the consumers and are sort of being left out of a lot of this, this discussion, right. And no offense to a lot of our elected officials, but and I'm just going to make up a number here. 99% of them don't own and drive EVs and they show up for the photo ops, but they actually don't know what they're talking about. Right. They literally don't, there was not going to pick on one, but I think it was our Secretary of Transportation or something. I forgot the secretary of I forget what her role. Anyway, she showed up for a photo op video. And, you know, she mentioned on mic, how do you plug this thing in? Right. Right. And so that's part of the challenge is, you know, going back to my earlier point is that, you know, what, will government, federal, state, local, have to play your role in this, right, because this is this massive transportation. And so we need government involvement for investment, for driving accountability and regulations and things like that, at the same time. You know, most governments are not known for getting things right, all the time. Right. And so I think, you know, as I mentioned earlier, I think a lot of the money is being spent on sort of the easy things and not solving sort of the the hard problems. So I think, you know, it's a collective thing we need, the automakers need to step up more, I mean, one of the things that, you know, is pretty common knowledge is that, you know, and I'm on my second Tesla, and, you know, if you drive a Tesla, chargi…
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