The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

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Will Trexit Be More Successful Than Brexit? Apr 11, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are looking at recent history. We know that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

We are going to look and see what we can learn from recent protectionist sentiments that were supposed to help.

The trade war of the 1930’s resulted in a 60% reduction in global trade. The impact was much more confined because international trade made up a small percentage of each country’s GDP compared with today.

No we have a much more meaningful comparison. Let’s look at Brexit which was the UK’s attempt to regain control over their national agenda leading up to the 2016 referendum.

These arguments collectively painted a picture of a UK potentially more independent, prosperous, and secure outside the European Union framework.

So the question for you is whether any of this sounds similar to what we are hearing from the White House? Let me be clear, I have no stake in this agenda. I’m neither supporting not opposing the current White House initiatives. I’m simply seeing parallels at two different points in history.

Brexit is a play on words, the combination of Britain and Exit. Of Course Britain was a founding member of the European Union and a strong proponent of the benefits of a single market with freedom of movement. The EU formed part of the globalization trend that

The World Trade Organization was a structure created in part by the US in which the rules of international trade were established that made it fair for countries that formed part of the WTO.

But now the US seems intent on breaking apart the WTO and negotiating individual trade deals with each nation based on criteria defined by the current White House. The US is also clearly trying to secure its borders.

These goals sounds incredibly similar to the Brexit arguments. In the years since Brexit, the UK has demonstrably suffered as a nation. The British pound lost value. The UK lost a lot of jobs and manufacturing. The UK has been isolated politically and economically.

AMA - Why Is Geothermal Not More Popular? Apr 10, 2025

Show notes

Today’s question comes from Michael who writes:

Long term listener of the podcast. It is great!

With geothermal being so efficient, why is it rarely used on new single families or retrofitted with existing homes?

Thx

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In Toby's Words Apr 09, 2025

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Toby Lutke is the CEO of Shopify. Shopify is the world leader in creating platforms and tools for e-commerce merchants. In the last few days, Toby sent a memo to the organization. This memo has been reported on widely in the mainstream media. When Toby realized that the memo had been leaked, he posted it in it entirety on his twitter feed. When news reporters report on a story, they’re adding their own narrative and interpretation. I want you to hear Toby’s words directly, without interpretation.

The memo speaks to Shopify's adoption of AI in all of their systems and work flows. It's a wake up call to all businesses.

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Investing With A Clear Head Apr 08, 2025

Show notes

People are used to walking on firm ground. If you have ever experienced an earthquake, it’s an unsettling feeling. Most people don’t know what to do. You will often see people running in all directions. Some of them are taking action which will improve their own personal safety, and others are actually running into harms way.

Global financial and stock markets are experiencing an earthquake of sorts and people seem to be running in all directions.

I’ve been saying for a while that we have nothing to worry about. At this point, I’m willing to admit that I may have been wrong about the scope of the tariff impacts. The NASDAQ stock index is down 19%. We will see disruptions and volatility. Will we see the cost of new construction increase? Maybe a little. But it’s too soon to tell.

To prevail over this chaos, you need to be thinking clearly at a time when many investors—and policymakers—are an emotional mess. It takes a level head to think clearly.

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AMA - Farming Coop Investment Apr 07, 2025

Show notes

Today's question comes from Juanita.

I follow your podcast and am a US Citizen. During the volatility being caused by tariffs, I am examining ways reduce my consumer exposure to trade war. I am think of buying into a farming co-op. I am feeling the global prices rise in my grocery bill and trying to find creative ways to get out.

1) Do you think farming co-op is a good temporary shield to current trade war?

2) How would you evaluate a real estate co-op purchase into a farming co-op to see if it economically makes sense versus riding out the trade war?

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Medical Retail with Steve Salvigsen Apr 06, 2025

Show notes

Stephen Salvigsen is based in Northern New Jersey where he specializes in medical retail and retail strip centers. On today's show we are talking about market selection and tenant selection in growth markets.

To connect with Stephen, you can find him on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephensalvigsen/ or at his company https://sagesquarecapital.com/

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Designing with Art with Jennifer Brener Seay Apr 05, 2025

Show notes

Jennifer Brener Seay is an art consultant based in Austin Texas. She works with developers nation wide in curating and selecting art for their development projects. On today's show we are talking about the role of art in designing your real estate projects.

To connect with Jennifer, visit artplusartisans.com or connect with her on LinkedIn.

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Hurray Lower Gas Prices. Oh Darn, Lower Gas Prices Apr 04, 2025

Show notes

Back in the 1970’s there was a very popular graphic of a Lincoln US one cent coin. The original coin on the back has the words engraved “In God we Trust”. The coin had been altered to say, in Oil we trust.

At the time, that meme rang true as people were lining up at gas stations around the block and oil prices spiked.

The economic turmoil of those days was the result of the OPEC oil embargo. Global trade was disrupted and a new word was coined. The economists rule book was broken and we had simultaneous price inflation and economic contraction. The term stagflation was born and remains as a textbook condition which can happen whenever there is an artificial constraint on economic activity.

On Thursday, one day after President Trump’s liberation day, OPEC Plus came out with their production targets for the next few months. The timing is coincidental. No doubt it appears that President Trump is going to get his wish for lower oil prices. Oil prices have dropped by 10% in 2 days.

So now with the spectre of reciprocal tariffs, economic slowdown, and falling prices at the gasoline pump, some people are cheering that it will cost less to fill the tank in your car. But if you are a shale oil producer, you probably have a flashback to 2014 when OPEC killed the US Shale industry by dropping the world price of oil to below the economic break-even for shale oil production.

I believe that the spike in oil production at a time of declining demand is a deliberate move to crash prices and crater the US oil industry. This was not just an action aimed at Iraq. This is one of those times when it is difficult to make sense out of what is happening in global markets. Quite frankly, some of it makes no sense.

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The Liberation Day Hangover Apr 03, 2025

Show notes

If there is one thing that has dominated conversations over the past few weeks in the world of new construction and development, it has been the impact of tariffs and global trade on new construction projects.

Yesterday the President outlined his administration’s plan for tariffs by country, along with some special provisions for the automotive industry.

We also don’t know what the international response will be from China, Germany, Japan, Korea Vietnam and many others.

There were a few countries that have been making headlines over the past two months, specifically Canada and Mexico. Yet these two countries were noticeably absent from the countries subject to the newly announced tariffs from the Rose Garden address on April 2.

That isn’t to say that Canada and Mexico are fully off the hook when it comes to tariffs. The automotive, steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place. The White House fact sheet says that tariffs affecting Canada and Mexico will not be stacked on top of existing tariffs. As you can imagine, this is a fluid situation and we might see further clarifications in the coming days and weeks. But that is what we know right now.

As I’ve been saying for some time, the biggest impact on real estate investors will be the flow of capital in the bond market which directly affects the cost of borrowing for real estate investors. Retaliation from trading partners that impacts treasury yields will have a larger impact than any tariffs. So far since the start of the week, we have seen treasury yields on the 10 year bond fall from 4.36% to 4.07%. In addition to monitor pricing due to tariffs, I'll be paying attention to the bond market.

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So Your Contractor Just Went Bust Apr 02, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are talking about a very real risk that is affecting real estate developers and property owners alike.

It’s always been a risk that a contractor might go out of business. Sometimes contractors allow themselves to get upside down financially. This can happen for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it’s the result of a client not paying them in a timely manner which causes a cash flow problem. Sometimes it’s the result of poor financial management. The contractor keeps trying to get new business to keep the lights on. By the time they realize that they’re out of cash, they start robbing from one project to pay another and the downward spiral begins.

The problems are not confined to contractors. In fact, we are currently seeing problems at subcontractors more frequently. In the past day, I’ve heard of several subcontractors who are in financial difficulty. Fortunately, none of our projects have been impacted or affected. But the risk is always there.

When a subcontractor is in the throes of going bust, they will often ask for advance payments to procure materials. You will also see unexpected delays in supply of labor and materials arriving onsite.

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