The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

Latest Episodes:

BOM - Buy Then Build by Walker Deibel May 01, 2025

Show notes

On the first day of each month we review the book of the month (BOM). Our book this month is "Buy Then Build: How Acquisition Entrepreneurs Outsmart the Startup Game”

The traditional narrative of entrepreneurship often conjures images of two guys tinkering over a prototype in a garage that has been converted into a lab. Think of sleepless nights, ramen noodle diets, and the daunting task of building a business from the ground up. It’s a path fraught with risk, where the vast majority of startups fail within the first few years. Walker Deibel’s "Buy Then Build: How Acquisition Entrepreneurs Outsmart the Startup Game" offers a compelling and meticulously argued alternative: he argues that you should bypass the perilous early stages by acquiring an existing, profitable business and then focus on growth from there.

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National Versus Local Apr 30, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are taking another look at hyper local versus macro. Today we’re comparing Boston, Charlotte and Phoenix, three cities at almost polar opposite ends of the country.

But first, at my company Y Street Capital, we are building. A lot of investors got into trouble over the past few years because of irrational exuberance and a tendency to look only at the upside and ignore the downside. At Y Street Capital, we believe that underwriting is a skill that goes way beyond having a spreadsheet. It consists of a discipline of crafting market assumptions that result in a safe project. I see too many investors manipulating their spreadsheets in order to get numbers that work. This is a very dangerous practice and it requires a strong discipline in underwriting to avoid that temptation.

Our consulting division provides underwriting services to other investors and developers all over North America. If you find yourself tweaking numbers in your spreadsheets, you may want to consider engaging our consulting group to get an institutional quality underwriting completed for your projects. Reach out to me at victorm@ystreetcapital.com and our team of experts would be happy to help you with your underwriting.

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Will Real Estate Benefit From Canada's New Government? Apr 29, 2025

Show notes

Yesterday Canada held its Federal election. While Canada has a number of political parties, it was really a 2 party race. Mark Carney running for prime minister is head of the liberal party and Pierre Poilievre is head of the conservative party.

When Justin Trudeau stepped aside a few months ago, the liberal party elected a new leader in Mark Carney. Mark Carney served as governor of the bank of Canada, and in an unusual step as governor of the bank of England. To have the bank of England select an outsider to head their central bank was an unusual step. But it was clear that Mark Carney had earned a considerable amount of trust globally as a solid central banker. He presided over the Bank of Canada through the GFC in 2008 and frankly Canada was largely unaffected by the crisis in the US, which did by the way spill over into Europe.

The one central figure in the election was not even a candidate. Donald Trump’s statements about trade, annexation, military spending, and border security became defining issues in the election.

The Canadian people have spoken and the country has elected a liberal minority government.

My assessment is that the conservative leader continued to use campaign slogans from 6-12 months ago. He failed to pivot to the reality on the ground which was the new candidate facing him in Mark Carney, and he failed to pivot in a way that will address the negotiation with Donald Trump. Mark Carney did a much more convincing job of demonstrating leadership throughout the campaign. Pierre Poilievre did not play the part of Prime Minister and I believe that he did not convince the electorate at large that he was up to the job. This election had extremely high voter turnout compared with previous elections.

As a developer who is active in both Canada and the US, I really would have been happy with either party winning the election. Both had pretty decent initiatives aimed at stimulating housing. The strong fundamentals combined with a removal of several barriers makes investment in some markets in Canada extremely attractive.

On today's show we are going through the real estate incentives in the liberal platform.

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Is Florida Melting? Apr 28, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are looking at the residential homes for sale inventory across several markets in Florida. We have been experiencing the so-called lock in effect with many owners holding onto very favourable loans at historically low interest rates.

Even if someone needs to move, they will often rent out their primary residence and then rent a home instead of buying rather than sell and be forced to pay a much higher interest rate when buying a new home.

There are signs that the lock-in effect is now starting to wane somewhat and the number of homes for sale is rising rapidly in several markets across the US.

The reason we want to look at this is because the residential market does contribute to rental stock. In the condo market in particular, we see a large proportion of condos being offered for rent by owners of single units or small portfolios. The conventional wisdom is that somewhere between 20-25% of the condo market will contribute to rental market inventory.

Markets that used to be hotspots like in Florida have seen a near meltdown in demand. The condo townhouse market in Florida is experiencing 9.7 months of supply. We often hear about the challenges in the coastal markets. But Orlando’s inventory in April 2025 is about 30–40% higher than April 2024, reflecting a substantial increase in available homes. The market has shifted to a buyer’s market, with a 7.73-month supply in January 2025, driven by high new listings and slower sales

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Investing In Germany with Cris Zimmerman Apr 27, 2025

Show notes

Cris Zimmerman is currently based in Spain, but his family is from Frankfurt where he own hundreds of assets including apartments, hotels, and various other commercial properties.

On today's show we are talking about the unique elements of investing in Germany.

Cris also hosts events for high net worth families across Europe and North America. To connect with Cris, visit medicilegacy.com

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Using AI For Due Diligence with Layla Kunimoto Apr 26, 2025

Show notes

Layla Kunimoto is based in Seattle Washington where she invests on a full-time basis. She also is the publisher of the weekly newsletter AccreditedInsight.com. On Monday, April 28 at noon CDT, Layla will be on LinkedIn Live with Robby Butler from the Y Street Capital team talking about the use of AI for underwriting and due diligence. To attend that live event, here is the link for the live stream - https://lnkd.in/eitNBS7n

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Blazing A Trail Or Fast Follower Apr 25, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are taking a look at whether it makes sense to copying a proven formula or blaze a trail and deliver a new product type in a geographic area.

But first, if you’ve been wondering where to place your capital that will be safe in today’s turbulent environment, you may want to consider participating in a high quality project managed by industry experts. At Y Street Capital, we have several projects underway in our pipeline and we have a limited number of investment opportunities. These opportunities are only available to accredited investors residing in the US and are in compliance with US SEC regulations. If you’d like to learn more about what we have going on at Y Street Capital, visit YStreetCapital.com and register for our investor portal https://ystreetcapital.invportal.com/login.

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Quick Math Versus Detailed Math Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are talking about how to model a project. I often hear people advocating for a simple spreadsheet to perform quick calculations. There was a time when I used these simple tools to make fast decisions.

There is a trade-off in any project where speed is a component of a quality outcome.

However, as time has progressed, I’m less inclined to rely on quick math for anything. The reason is that when bank leverage is involved, which it often is, the analysis becomes increasingly sensitive to small changes. A small change can cause a project to flip from attractive to upside down.

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Is The Ship Sinking? Apr 23, 2025

Show notes

On today’s show we are talking about the movement of goods entering our country and how this might affect industrial real estate and jobs.

The mainstream media have been widely reporting that shipping imports to the US are down by 64% in the first weeks of April. This is an example of how statistics can be used to sensationalize a narrative. Compared with the last week of March, it is true, shipments are down 64% from the week earlier. It’s also true, but not widely reported that shippers were rushing to complete imports to the US ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline. When you look at the long term averages, the number of ships leaving port for the US in early April is down about 10%. This is pretty consistent across the major carriers including MSC, Ocean Alliance, Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance. Gemini had the fewest cancellations at about 2% of their sailings cancelled and Premier Alliance had 18% of their sailings cancelled. So the thing to remember is that the pull back is based on a massive inventory build in the US ahead of the tariff implementation. Even if the tariffs had not been as dramatic as the April 2 announcement, the inventory build had already been done preemptively and we would have seen a drop in sailings anyway in the second quarter.

Last week the US unveiled its new Maritime policy which is intended to remove China’s dominance of the global merchant marine fleet. The US produces less than 1% of the new ships each year and China about half of the world’s ships. China is manufacturing 50x more ships than the US. The thinking is that the US and indeed all countries will be dependent on China for delivery of essential goods into the country and therefore such dependence could be a major national security risk for the country. The US is struggling to manufacture new ships for its navy. Part of the struggle is based on the fact that you’re not going to be great at building navy ships if you’re not making any commercial ships and lack the skills to build commercial vessels.

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When Change Becomes Too Much Apr 22, 2025

Show notes

I’m sharing what I’ve learned about managing change and how it might explain what we are seeing and experiencing in our daily lives. Early on in my career as a leader in the tech industry I took a bunch of courses on leadership.

One of the course in my management training was on change management. The idea was that leaders need to become skilled at leading people through change and that change doesn’t just magically happen. There is a psychology to managing change and if you ignore it you are likely to fail at implementing change.

You can divide people into four waves when it comes to embracing change.

There are the Mavericks. These are the first to make a change, or to adopt a new technology. They represent maybe 5-10% of the population, depending on the nature of the change. Next are the early adopters. Then come the “show me” who represent the silent majority and finally the laggards who will only embrace the change kicking and screaming when there is no alternative.

Any change will require engaging each of these audiences in that order. The early adopters won’t jump until the Mavericks have proven the feasibility, and the show me types will only jump in after the early adopters are sufficient in number to create the social proof. Finally, there are people who will resist the change kicking and screaming.

The fact is, there tend to be people from all four of these groups at all levels in our society. Some are business owners. Some are factory floor workers. There are people from all four of these groups at all levels. Not surprisingly, leaders tend to be more represented in the Maverick and early adopter group, but that is not a hard and fast rule.

The second thing to know about change is that change can reach a saturation point.

I went through an experiential exercise in a class where each person in the class was asked to perform an exercise.

We were asked to change one thing about our appearance. So some people would remove their jacket or take off their glasses. Then we were asked to change one more thing about our appearance, and then one more, and one more, and one more.....

Many people reached a point where the change was emotionally too much for them to carry on changing more and more. They surmised that the changes would keep coming and they would be pushed beyond their comfort zone. Many people stopped participating long before hitting that threshold.

This exercise taught me some powerful lessons about change management.

The first few changes could be made easily with very little resistance. These first few changes are almost free and will be met with almost no opposition.
Changes become more expensive emotionally.
People will grumble before they hit the brakes.
Saturation happens suddenly and the early warning signs should be paid attention to

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