The Pollsters

NATO (Gallup) Toplines Pew (Spring 2017)Economist/YouGov Americans become more anti-Russian under Trump (NBC)Gallup Polling The Economist/YouGovTrump approval!RCP 538Generic ballot!RCP 538SCOTUS The Hill GallupIce Cream!Rasmussen: Chocolate (19%), Butter Pecan (16%)YouGov: Chocolate (14%), Vanilla (13%)

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#172: SCOTUS, You're a Firecracker, Baby Jul 12, 2018

Show notes

Poll of the Week: Axios/ SurveyMonkey Poll “Democrats’ Senate dreams slip away”

Survey Monkey write-up: “Senate battleground polls show Democrats in a tight spot”

Criticism: Nate Silver (Twitter): The Axios treatment of this poll is basically "How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart". But wait until we focus on likely voters.

Changing view of SCOTUS

Pew Research Interpreting Constitution in current times vs Originalists. Are these questions answered by what view will produce the political outcome respondents want? In a vacuum? Growing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means today 5 facts about the Supreme Court

American Voters Support Roe V. Wade 2-1, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;

Dem Candidates Up 9 Points In U.S. House Races

Roe v Wade and abortion

So many ways to ask the question. Pretty clear majorities say don’t overturn. Pollsters can frame questions to take advantage of affirmation bias.

What the polls say about Americans, abortion, and the Supreme Court There are so many other issues beyond Roe.

How will this influence people’s midterm votes?Democrats hope Kennedy’s retirement will make the courts a galvanizing issue for their voters Polling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme Court A quarter of Republicans voted for Trump to get Supreme Court picks — and it paid off 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Trump Job Approval

Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. They Told Us Why.

It’s not that they’re selfish, they just can’t afford it. Where is infertility on this list?

POLL: Did you make it out to see fireworks this Fourth of July holiday? We want our fireworks in our backyard or in the supreme court debate.

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#171: Sing Us The Song You're The Polling Man Jun 29, 2018

Show notes

A surprise takedown in NY-14, where there was no polling in the Ocasio-Cortez/Crowley race. Is the shockwave also a bellwether? We cheer women, young and old, rocking the Democratic primaries (70% of open seats going to women over men) and wonder why that’s not happening on the GOP side (30%). We’ve got Westworld, Scandinavia, anger, exhaustion, and days and days of the Red Frickin’ Hen.

Primary Day

As blue as Maryland is, is it a good place to be Larry Hogan?RealClearPolitics Maryland Governor Race Post-U. Md. poll: Jealous, Baker lead in Democratic race overshadowed by Hogan Washington Post-University of Maryland poll - 2018 Maryland governor's election - May 29-June 3

New YorkRealClearPolitics: New York 11th District - Republican Primary Grimm vs. Donovan NY 11th Republican Primary

Trumplandia

Trump approval rating Majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time: CNBC survey By the numbers: Trump’s economic approval ratings hit a new high

2018 Generic Congressional Vote

Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races

Virginia: GOP Trailing in CD10

West Virginia: Dems Doing Well in Senate, CD03

Midterm Issues

Immigration Gains Steam As A Midterm Issue

Voters More Focused on Control of Congress – and the President – Than in Past Midterms

Images and Ideas to Engage and Persuade

Freedom Rings in Places You Might Not Expect

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#170: Tom Hanks Is Not Here For Your Partisan Nonsense Jun 21, 2018

Show notes

Tom Hanks is Not Here for Your Partisan Nonsense

Distinguishing Between Factual and Opinion Statements in the NewsNo one party has a monopoly on ability to distinguish between fact and opinion, but people tend to believe that statements that favor their own opinions are factual.

Family separation pollingLess Than One-Third Of The Public Supports Family Separations Majority oppose policy that causes family separation, but Republicans approveAll four outlets show majority oppose the policy, with large party differences. What does support of this unpopular policy mean for Republicans? A quarter of America is ride or die with Donald Trump.

TrumplandiaAmericans are satisfied with Trump's North Korea summit http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6b.-.north.korea.pdf Trump Job Approval Generic Ballot Melania’s approval rating also decreasesNumbers show that people responded well to the summit. It’s a Thing. A major or minor achievement. Generic ballot shows the spread between Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. Donald and Melania’s approval ratings both drop, but her numbers are much better than her husband’s.

Who doesn’t Approve of Tom Hanks?American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the AnswerThis one is a head-scratcher. In so many ways.

World CupPoll: World Cup Rivals NBA Finals, World Series in Capturing Young Adults’ AttentionOnly 20% of US adults plan to watch. US men are not in it, but so many pretty men are. And some of them are biters.

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#169: Let's Talk About The Midterms (& Patrick Breaks The Glass Ceiling) Jun 14, 2018

Show notes

Let’s Talk about the Midterms

Kristen is joined by special guest co-host, Echelon Insights co-founder Patrick Ruffini, to determine who is the goat in this scary movie, who is excited about the midterms, what just happened with North Korea, and what people thought about it before it happened, or didn’t.

Generic ballot / Trump’s approval ratingThe generic ballot is widening back out again in favor of Democrats, but Trump’s approval rating has not taken a hit. Are Dems in the clear? Not so fast.Real Clear Politics: 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Trump Job Approval

NBC/Wall Street Journal PollHow do you talk about the expectation poll when the results of the summit wasn’t a choice? And what were those results anyway? What is the net outcome of alienating allies and befriending dictators in the same week?Voters unsure what to expect from North Korea talks(Morning Consult poll: U.S. Public Skeptical That North Korea Will Get Rid of Nukes After Trump-Kim Summit)What are midterm voters looking for? A check on Trump? Health care is a problem for Republicans. And the gun issue is surprising. More Dems say they are enthusiastic about primaries, and Republicans look like Independents.Trump's support has gotten deeper — but not broader Economic satisfaction under Trump isn't helping his party's 2018 chancesDemocratic Women have won 49% of open seat primaries, Republican Women only 16%

California PrimariesCalifornia Results Are Consistent With a Competitive House Race What to Make of the California Primary Results Ohio Primaries VIrginia Primaries Florida Primaries

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#168: Booze, Weed & Porn All Get A Bump Jun 08, 2018

Show notes

Booze, Weed, and Porn All Up in the Polls!

Margie is lonely on the road, but she’s got polls to keep her company! Especially polls about Michael Avenatti! Trump’s approval ratings hold steady and the Democrats rebound a little in the Generic Ballot. Tariffs have the nation calling flatly, “Anyone?...Anyone?” Women did well in the most recent primaries but do people think they’ll change anything when in office? And, finally, the annual Gallup numbers on what Americans find morally (un)acceptable.

Polls of the Week: What Does The Public Think Of Michael Avenatti?

Quinnipiac University Poll

Echelon Insights Poll

Trumplandia and Generic Ballot

Trump’s approval drops a bit to 44% but data shows a large number of voters want to check him.

Trump Job Approval

NBC/WSJ Poll

Examining Public Support for Checks on Presidential Power

News Fatigue

Pew Research: Almost seven-in-ten Americans have news fatigue

What’s in a Tariff?

Politico Poll: Poll: Few voters think tariffs will help U.S. economyGender in PoliticsRepublicans are less convinced than Democrats that electing more women would make Congress more productive

Morality in AmericaOverwhelming majorities find drinking alcohol and smoking marijuana morally acceptable More Americans Say Pornography Is Morally Acceptable

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#167: Not That Kind Of Biscuit May 31, 2018

Show notes

Not That Kind Of Biscuit

We’ve made it past Memorial Day! What the heck is GDPR and why do I keep getting emails about it? Will Kristen trade her personal data for Swedish translations? What about ads for pretty shoes?Who doesn’t love biscuits? Monsters, that’s who. Find us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.

Poll of the Week: How Adults of Different Ages Feel About Data Privacy?

Kristen isn’t giving up personal data for Swedish translations.

Most U.S. Adults in Poll Unwilling to Share Personal Data for Ads to Keep a Service Free

Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook says they won’t be giving users an option to pay to skip the ads.

Trumplandia

Effectively 45% approval! But what does that mean?

Trump Job Approval

Echelon Insights has some new data on how people feel about Russia and the Trump Campaign, his handling of North Korea and Iran, and his tweeting—but you have to listen to find out what it is!

More new Echelon Insight data you have to listen to get...How do people get their news?How often do people use various social media platforms?Is tech good or bad for society?

Teens and the Internet

Pew Research has new data on Teens, Social Media & Technology 2018

Generic Ballot Update

FiveThirtyEight on who’s winning the race for Congress

Josh Barro & Charles Franklin (separately) wrote about how the reuters/ipsos poll is volatile, making it seem like gen ballot was closing.

Were the 2016 polls accurate?

FiveThirtyEight has the answer!And which pollsters should you trust?

American Communities

Pew: what divides and unites urban, suburban, and rural communities?

That’s a Cookie, Dammit!

YouGov gets the skinny on Brits’ favorite “biscuits”

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