The Pollsters

Latest Episodes:

#196: Kristen's Love Language Jan 03, 2019

Show notes

Happy New Year! We're back from the holiday break, with lots of (good and bad) holiday stories...about animals eating the wrong things.

Poll of the Week

What do Democrats want in 2020? (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)

The Shutdown

Americans Give Everyone Negative Marks For The Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)

Federal Employees Overwhelmingly Oppose Shutdown (Government Business Council & GovExec.com)

47% of Americans blame Trump for government shutdown (Reuters/Ipsos)

Trump Approval(HuffPo)

Climate Change

Consensus emerges in climate change debate (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)

How American Thinking Has (And Hasn’t) Changed In 80 Years (HuffPo/YouGov)

New Years Resolutions (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)

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#195: The Middle America Project Dec 20, 2018

Show notes

Kristen speaks with Patrick Ruffini about Echelon Insights' Middle America Project, which ranks every county in the U.S. on how representative it is of the country as a whole.

They discuss how the typical American community isn’t a small town that voted for Donald Trump to counterbalance Hillary Clinton’s lopsided margin in the cities. By definition, it’s something in between. This usually means that it’s a small city with surrounding suburbs, mainly located in the Northeast and Midwest, that not only was closely contested in 2016 but closely resembles the social and demographic characteristics of the country as a whole.

Kristen and Patrick also talk about the accuracy of election polling and the "new" tech that drives every election.

You can subscribe to Patrick's newsletter at EchelonInsights.com/TheIntersection.

The Pollsters is on hiatus next week but will be back in 2019! Happy holidays!

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#194: Women Working in Politics, with Abby Livingston Dec 13, 2018

Show notes

This week The Pollsters welcome Abby Livingston, bureau chief for the Texas Tribune, to talk about her recent article in Politico Magazine, "The Hardest Glass Ceiling in Politics".

The somewhat controversial article addresses the sexism challenges faced by women who work as politics consultants. Kristen and Margie share some of their own experiences with Abby and dig in to the journalistic methods and insights she brought to the project.

This is ann important issue and we're grateful to Abby for taking it on.

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#193: Is This Poll A Christmas Movie? Dec 06, 2018

Show notes

Holiday Polls

Most Americans don't think that "Die Hard" is a Christmas movie (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

Personal Importance of Hanukkah Varies by Denomination among Jewish Americans (PRRI)

Trump, Democrats, and the USA

Trump Job Approval (HuffPo)

Trump's Political Risk Spreads to Small-Town America (Selzer & Co./Grinnell College)

Democrats Are Divided On The Ideological Future Of Their Party (HuffPo/YouGov)

Americans Not Optimistic About Trump, Democrats Cooperating (Gallup)

Democrats Lead Surge in Belief U.S. Should Be World Leader (Gallup)

Parenting and Family

Millennial Parent and Education (Echelon Insights)

My marriage? Great! Yours? Not so much. (Brookings Institution analysis of American Family Survey by Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy/Deseret News/YouGov)

The Dog Poop Blues

Is it OK to put your dog's poop in someone else's trash can? (Coloradoan)

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#192: Are You Ready For Our BTS Overlords? Nov 29, 2018

Show notes

Poll of the Week:

Results of the TIME Person of the Year Reader's Poll (BTS WINS!)

Trumplandia and Political Divisions

Trump Approval (HuffPo)

Few Expect Country to Become United (Monmouth)

Americans Want the New Congress to Provide a Check on the White House, Follow Facts in Investigations (Navigator)

Many Americans Are Giving Trump The Benefit Of The Doubt On Manufacturing Jobs (HuffPo/YouGov)

Republicans and Women

The Republican Party and Women in Politics (DemocracyFund Voice)

The Young and The Old

Teens who are constantly online are just as likely to socialize with their friends offline (Pew Research)

People want to live longer, but maybe not to 100 (Axios/SurveyMonkey)

Critical Thinking

87% say they’re open to opposing views, but only 25% seek them out (Reboot Foundation)

Unwelcome Guests

First sign a guest has overstayed his or her welcome? (CantonRep.com)

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#191: A Tale of Two Exit Polls Nov 15, 2018

Show notes

#191: A Tale of Two Exit Polls

First: Kristen has a new show on SiriusXM but The Pollsters will still be here for your data geek love!

Civility & Division

Most Democrats see Republicans as racist, sexist (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Midterm Follow-up

A Mandate for Democrats? (CNN/SSRS)

Public Wants Congress to be a Check on Trump (Monmouth)T

rump approval (HuffPo)

2020 (Already? Really?)

Trump's 2020 woman problem (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Biden, Bernie, Beto lead 2020 Dem field (Politico/Morning Consult)

Exit Polling Is Changing

Edison, the historically popular choice

AP VoteCast, the new kid on the block

Thanksgiving

FavoriteThanksgiving Pies and Activities (The Pioneer Woman)

The Pollsters is taking next week off. From all of us to all of you, have a very Happy Thanksgiving!

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#190: 2018 Midterm Outcomes Nov 07, 2018

Show notes

The 2018 Midterm elections are over (mostly) and things turned out much like the pollsters (and The Pollsters) expected, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans making gains in the Senate. While Democrats didn't win some close races, they still managed to do well in legislative chambers.

The Pollsters grade the performance of polling across the country in this election and recognize that there are several high profile races where, even though they were within the margin of error, there are likely to be questions about polling reliability.

There are a lot of data yet to sift through and there are sure to be post-election polls in the coming days, so be sure to come back next week to get our analysis of all the post-election numbers. One new poll: American Jewish Voters Strongly Oppose Trump, conducted by GBA Strategies, commissioned by J Street.

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#189: Scary Midterms and Fortnite Costumes Nov 01, 2018

Show notes

#189: Scary Midterms and Fortnite Costumes

Poll of the Week

Views of voting access linked to opinion on diversity in the U.S. (Pew Research)

Youth

Harvard IOP Youth Poll Fall 2018 (Institute of Politics, Harvard)

Millennials Turnout (NBC/GenForward)

Trump and Republicans

Job Approval (Huffington Post)

Partisan Polarization Dominates Trump Era (PRRI)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Women and the Economy

Red-Hot Economy? Women Aren’t Convinced (New York Times)

Halloween

Most Popular Halloween Costumes 2018 (Google Trends)

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#188: Midterm Outlook with Liesl Hickey and Ali Lapp Oct 25, 2018

Show notes

In this very special episode, we're joined by Republican House race expert Liesl Hickey and Democratic House race expert Ali Lapp, hosts of the House Talk with Ali and Liesl podcast. We cover how political experts view house race polls compared to the Generic Ballot and the specifics of the upcoming midterm election.

How much is President Trump helping or hurting Republican candidates? The Democrats appear likely to take back the House, but by how much? What are the implications of the massive gender gap that the GOP faces among women, and is this the start of a long-term trend or just a temporary situation?

Margie, Kristen, Ali, and Liesl answer all these questions and more in this week on The Pollsters!

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#187: Strong Feelings on Immigration and TV Reboots Oct 17, 2018

Show notes

#187: Strong Feelings on Immigration and TV Reboots

Midterms & Trump Approval

Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall (CNBC)

Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections (Washington Post/ABC News)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Trump Job Approval (Huffington Post)

2020 Democratic Primary

More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field (CNN/SSRS)