The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Understanding the Turbulence of Financial Markets with Gary Shilling Sep 10, 2023

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Join us on a captivating journey as we dissect economic predictions and investment strategies with the acclaimed Gary Shilling. In this episode, we go beyond the ordinary and unearth overlooked opportunities that can reshape your investment decisions. We delve into Gary's unique principles for assessing the economy and financial markets, and unveil his predictions that shaped the bond rally in the '80s. A fascinating discourse awaits you as we unravel the intricate interplay of technology, labor, and product pricing.
As we continue our exploration, we venture into the potential repercussions of the Industrial Revolution on the workforce and the anticipated implications of artificial intelligence on job security. Are we on the brink of another recession? We analyze the current yield curve and leading indicators to answer this question and investigate the apparent disconnect between the stock market narrative and the reality on the ground. We open a window into consumer behavior, highlighting the hesitation to spend in the current economic climate.
Lastly, we rewind to the 1974 recession, breaking down the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy rate and extrapolate the potential effects of a similar downturn on the current economy. Will real estate take a hit? Are layoffs imminent? How will consumer and capital spending be affected? We delve into these pressing questions. Wrapping up, we examine the impact of external crises on the Federal Reserve's policy rate, the potential of a 30% decline in the S&P 500 index, and the susceptibility of stocks in relation to inflation-adjusted yields. This episode is a deep-dive into the dynamics of the economy that you won't want to miss!
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Deciphering the Future Global Landscape: A Conversation with Velina Tchakarova Sep 09, 2023

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What if the future of the dollar was at risk? What if the geopolitical landscape as we know it was on the verge of dramatic change? Hold onto your seats as we welcome Velina Tchakarova, a seasoned geopolitical consultant with over two decades of expertise in international relations, international security, and political science. This exploration through time and across continents will leave you with a newfound understanding of the world and its intricacies.
Our journey commences with an exploration of the power dynamics between the United States and China, the two major players competing for global dominance. We'll shed light on the unique strategies employed by both nations and their implications on the standing of the US dollar. Then, we'll navigate the emerging significance of the BRICS countries and their potential to mold the future through technological advancements. You'll be amazed at the potential power shifts on the horizon.
Finally, we'll consider the how the rise of the BRICS countries could pose a threat to the US economy. From the looming shadow of a 'food crisis 2.0' to the consequences of the US's position as an energy superpower, we'll cover it all. We'll also ponder the future scenarios surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine and the related geopolitical risks. Wrapping things up, we'll consider the implications of the US elections on Europe and the potential effects of a Republican president taking office. You won't want to miss this riveting discussion on geopolitical trends, future scenarios, and the future of global competition - all topped off with how you can follow up on our guest's work.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Tom Basso's Insightful Journey: From Engineering to Trading Mastery Sep 09, 2023

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Ever wonder how an engineer would approach the unpredictable world of trading? We sit down with seasoned trader, Tom Basso, whose unique approach stems from his engineering background, treating trading as a continuous data processing endeavor. Join us as Tom shares his journey from managing other people's money to navigating his own funds, while also penning a book to help his clients become better investors.
Tom's perspectives on the stock market are as diverse as the range of assets he trades. From commodities to crypto futures, gold, silver, and platinum, Tom's strategies are as varied as they are insightful. We explore his experiences with drawdowns, his ingenious strategies to counter them during sideways markets, and the importance he places on understanding both profits and losses. Tom's advice for achieving speed and experience in trading different asset classes, along with his views on the current market, and the fine line between predicting and trading, are not to be missed.
But what about the risks that come with trading? Tom's got you covered. We delve into his risk management strategies in volatile markets, the role his engineering background plays in his approach to trading, and how position sizing can significantly impact returns and risk more than buy and sell indicators. Tune in as we also discuss his play on earnings gaps and his time-saving trader's resource website. Perfect for anyone keen on trading, investing, or managing risk, this episode is packed with insights and invaluable advice. Join us and take a peek into the exciting trading world through Tom's seasoned lens.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Navigating the Intricate Maze of China's Defense Strategies with Taylor Fravel Sep 08, 2023

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Introducing Taylor Fravel, an esteemed political science professor from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Brace yourselves for a deep dive into the intricate maze of China's foreign policies and military strategies. Our intriguing conversations navigate through China's territorial disputes, nuclear policies, and the captivating realm of information warfare. Taylor, with his vast expertise, unveils the façade of China's multifaceted interactions with the world and the role technology plays in shaping its defense strategies.
As we peel back the layers, we stumble upon China's crafty efforts to shape global narratives and undermine their adversaries. The potency of China's messaging strategies and propaganda machinery is a testament to its vigor in seizing control of international diplomacy. The dialogue takes an exciting turn when we juxtapose China's military footprint against the US. Is China's pursuit of nuclear expansion and modernization a signal of an impending global power shift? Tune in to find out.
The economic tussle between the US and China is no secret. We dissect this dynamic relationship, revealing how the US is balancing the scales between competition and cooperation. The shift from decoupling to de-risking, the role of US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and the economic reality of America's trading relationship with China, all come under the microscope. As our conversations reach their zenith, we scrutinize the negotiation landscape and inspect the progress made in creating a new channel dedicated to addressing US-China issues. Taylor's insights provide a clarified understanding of the global power play at hand. Join us for this riveting discussion that peels back the layers of international politics and unveils the intricacies of global power dynamics.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

Exploring the Intersection of Bitcoin, Entrepreneurship, and Artificial Intelligence with Aleks Svetski Sep 08, 2023

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Ready to explore the riveting world of Bitcoin, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence? We're thrilled to have Aleks Svetski on the show, a dynamic entrepreneur who transitioned from civil engineering to Bitcoin writing. He shares his fascinating entrepreneurial journey and his evolving perception of Bitcoin - from a simple payment solution to a grander societal remedy. We also spotlight the early adopters of Bitcoin and the progression of its narrative.
We're not stopping at Bitcoin. This episode uncovers the misunderstood world of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a concept too often blown out of proportion on the internet. We dissect the layers of human intelligence, compare it to AI, and examine the implications of language models emulating human-like language. As AI marches on, should we start considering regulation? We leave no stone unturned.
In the final segment, we dig into the concept of 'perpetual chulok' - the ratio of valuing the present against the future. Reflect on how internet and crypto projects create a consistent frenzy, and how the pandemic has emphasized life's fragility. Bitcoin's unique positioning in the market cycle could potentially shift our collective psychology towards a sound money system. This episode is a treasure trove of insights, so sit back, tune in, and let's explore the fascinating intersection of Bitcoin, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

Dissecting the Shifts in the US Real Estate Market with Mike Simonsen Sep 07, 2023

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On today's episode, we've invited Mike Simonsen, the brainchild behind Altos Research, to dissect the intricate trends of the US real estate market. Mike's company is the industry's pulse monitor, scrutinizing every home for sale in the United States every single week. Fascinated by how the dynamics of the housing market can shift like sand through your fingers? Mike and our team dig into the factors influencing these changes, such as fluctuations in mortgage rates and inventory levels. We've got your curiosity piqued, haven't we?
Our discourse takes a riveting turn as we tackle the intriguing comparison between homeownership and investment properties. How do laws, policies, and even platforms like Airbnb feed into this dialogue? Mike possesses a goldmine of insights, delving into how rising mortgage rates may put a damper on the market's pace and making sense of the year-over-year comparisons for home prices. We have a feeling you're not going to want to miss out on this enlightening exchange.
But wait, there's more! We've got you covered on the role of home builders in the housing market, investigating their post-pandemic performance and their cunning strategies to edge out resale homes. Ever wondered how the interplay of inventory and mortgage rates shapes housing demand and affordability? We've got the answers. With a plethora of data-driven observations and forward-thinking projections, this episode promises to be a rollercoaster ride through the dynamic world of real estate. Tune in for an episode chock-full of wisdom nuggets that you won't find anywhere else.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

Unraveling the World of Bitcoin Investing with Tuur Demeester Sep 07, 2023

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Get ready to unravel the world of Bitcoin with our insightful guest, Tuur Demeester, an investment analyst and a Bitcoin enthusiast. Tuur is here to share his transformational journey from an initial skeptic to someone who believes in Bitcoin's potential. He'll be diving deep into his understanding and investment strategies, offering you an exclusive peek into the world of cryptocurrency.
We'll be scrutinizing the speculative nature of Bitcoin's market, the role of the 21 million limit in preserving scarcity, and the impact of government stimulus and spending on this digital currency. Listen in as Tuur talks about his approach to risk management, the significance of analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain for asset valuation, and the importance of collaborative custody for preserving cryptocurrency. This episode is a treasure trove of knowledge for both new and seasoned Bitcoin investors.
The conversation takes an interesting turn as we discuss the potential political implications of Bitcoin adoption. Tuur sheds light on Bitcoin's soft forks versus Ethereum's hard forks, and what the bursting of the Ethereum bubble could mean for the crypto space. We'll also be exploring the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a central issue in the upcoming elections and how countries friendly to Bitcoin could see an influx of money. This is a must-listen episode for anyone interested in understanding the ever-evolving landscape of digital currency.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

Unraveling the Web of Investment Fraud: Insightful Conversations with Dan Davies Sep 06, 2023

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Strap yourselves in for a riveting journey into the shadowy realms of financial fraud with our esteemed guest, Dan Davies. Prepare to be captivated as we peel back the layers of the audacious Great Salad Oil Scam, examining how this intricate deception cleverly outmaneuvered control mechanisms. It's a story that hammers home the importance of meticulous research and constant alertness when considering any investment.
Ever wondered what goes on inside the minds of white-collar criminals? As we delve into the psychology of fraud, we reveal how fraudsters rationalize their actions and delve into the power dynamics of high-status individuals. The conversation also emphasizes the need for constant vigilance against fraud, and the surprising status it can hold. With insights from Dan, we'll help you better understand the complexities and challenges of detecting and preventing fraud.
As we approach the conclusion, we turn our attention to the controversial correlation between easy monetary policy and fraudulent activities. We discuss how easy access to credit can be exploited by unscrupulous individuals, allowing fraud to persist longer. Plus, we explore the 'Lindy Effect' and how it can be utilized in detecting fraudulent activities. Ponder over the thought-provoking insights shared by Dan on how governments should tackle fraud, and why simply restricting individuals from trading stocks isn't enough. From the Great Salad Oil Scam to the Lindy Effect, this episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the murky world of investment fraud.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

The Financial Ripple Effect of China's Economic Decisions with Jeff Snider Aug 31, 2023

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Welcome to an enthralling journey through the complex arteries of the global economy. Harnessing the insights of our esteemed guest, Jeff Snider from Eurodollar University, we tackle the intricacies of the monetary system, and demystify the current state of the bond market. Tune in as we dissect the impact of the Fitch downgrade on US Treasury bonds and the impressive stability of yields and credit spreads in these turbulent times. We raise the alarm on the concerning lack of information in the commercial real estate credit market and the potential risks it harbors.
Turning our lenses towards the banking sector, we discuss the implications of rising yields and the stance of central banks towards this phenomenon. We promise a fierce debate on real versus reported inflation, considering goods, services, and producer prices. Get ready to learn whether current inflationary pressures are significant enough to navigate us towards a soft economic landing.
Finally, we cast our gaze on the broader global economy, with China as a potential epicenter of risk. We analyze various financial signals that could indicate a potential Chinese economic implosion and the far-reaching global fallout. We ponder the economic challenges China faces, the threat of a financial spillover to other nations, and the rippling effects of China's decisions on the Russian and Indian economies. Witness as we untangle these intricate financial narratives and illuminate the workings of the world economy.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at http://www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

Navigating the Complex World of Cannabis Legalization and Banking Laws with Jeff Schultz Aug 30, 2023

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Ready to walk the intricate maze of cannabis legalization and banking laws? Our latest episode promises a captivating journey with guest Jeff Schultz. Jeff unravels the hurdles and hopes in the realm of cannabis legalization, exploring the perplexities of the Safe Banking Act and its surprising lack of legislative success despite its public popularity.
The conversation takes a fascinating detour towards the potential implications of rescheduling cannabis on a federal level. Simultaneously, Jeff tackles the issue of unlicensed smoke shops in New York and illuminates the distinctive dynamics of cannabis legalization in states like Minnesota and New York. Brace yourself for stimulating revelations on the macroeconomic impacts of the cannabis industry on businesses operating in it, as Jeff dives into the rising cost of capital and inflation of input costs.
Plus, we tackle the challenging terrain of advertising cannabis podcasts. From legal intricacies, financial challenges, political landscapes to musical endeavors, this episode promises an enlightening exploration into the world of cannabis. Tune in and let Jeff lead you through this compelling journey.
ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at http://www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.
Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

Support the show

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