Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG Nov 29, 2022

Show notes

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34.

Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions.

Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.”

In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling

1:45 We were getting lied to all the time

2:35 Law School

3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks

5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets

6:55 The Sino-Forest short

9:55 Grifting in the ESG space

13:20 The Sunrun short thesis

19:50 Impact of rising rates

21:18 DLocal short thesis

26:28 DLocal’s response

29:40 Block’s process for building a short thesis

35:05 “Investor Journalist”

38:20 Why short selling exists

42:45 How short selling is perceived

45:02 The “Tick The Box Apocalypse”

#033 Jan Van Eck On Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds Nov 22, 2022

Show notes

Jan Van Eck (@janvaneck3), CEO of Van Eck Funds, one of the world’s largest sponsors of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), joins Julia La Roche on episode 33 to discuss the next big investment opportunity in fixed income.

During the conversation, Jan explains why we’re entering a period where bonds will outperform equities. That’s why he thinks investors must be majority weighted in fixed income. He also points out that too many investors are too focused on the next equity rally since they’re accustomed to the Fed put.

The conversation also touched upon Bitcoin and digital assets amid the FTX fiasco. Jan noted that Bitcoin had demonstrated an ability to withstand a lot of tests. He also shared his thesis on the digital asset and why it’s a store of value against paper money.

Founded in 1955, VanEck was one the first U.S. asset managers to offer investors access to international markets, setting the tone for identifying asset classes and trends – including gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange-traded funds in 2006, and digital assets in 2017. VanEck manages approximately $70 billion in assets, including mutual funds, ETFs and institutional accounts.

0:00 Intro

0:33 Macro view

1:55 2022 can be summarized in one sentence

2:43 Fixed income can and should be a bigger part of a portfolio

3:02 Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio

4:50 Where in the fixed income universe?

7:22 Views on the economy

9:16 Outlook for equities

10:00 Inflation may be more persistent than people think

12:30 Is the 2% target unrealistic

13:12 Labor market

14:12 Outlook for commodities

16:35 Don’t over chase equities

19:00 Why fixed income can be an under-appreciated part of a portfolio

20:50 Using history to identify all potential outcomes

23:23 Powell will make sure he slays inflation

26:11 FTX one of the last shoes to drop in the deleveraging of crypto

27:47 Knock-on effects from FTX

29:00 The good news for investors in crypto

30:00 Journey into digital assets, Bitcoin

31:24 Bitcoin Futures ETFs

32:10 Spot EFT

35:00 Thesis on Bitcoin

38:26 Biggest risks

41:00 3 big drivers on financial markets

43:00 Psychology of investing

#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire Nov 17, 2022

Show notes

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, and best-selling author of multiple books, including Adrift: America In 100 Charts, joins Julia La Roche on episode 32.

In this episode, Julia and Scott delve into the “hunger games, winner takes most” economy that’s emerged, where it’s never been easier to become a billionaire in America and never been harder to become a millionaire. According to Scott, a millennial born in 1984, who’d be 37, only has a 50% chance of doing better economically than their parents. Scott highlights the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. and what it means for the country's social fabric.

Scott pointed out how broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort. He also detailed how the rise of dating apps — an ecosystem that would have greater inequality than Venezuela — has hindered relationship formation.

Elsewhere, Scott broke down how universities and colleges have become luxury brands. As Scott put it, this rejectionist luxury positioning at universities is the “most un-American thing.” He argued that we could easily expand freshman seats.

Scott also shared his thoughts on Twitter and its new owner Elon Musk, which he describes as a “train wreck you can’t look away from.” He also shared his take on TikTok and his issue with its ownership.

0:00 Intro

0:43 Never been easier to be a billionaire in America

1:48 More business school students will be dependent on their parents

2:40 Millennials have it worse off than their parents

4:50 Consequences of an eroding middle class

6:30 Age inequality

8:30 What Social Security should look like now

11:00 The greediest generation in the world

12:10 Creating anger and volatility among younger people

15:00 Broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort

17:30 Need a leveling up for young males

20:45 Solution is viable young men

22:08 Need to double number of freshman seats at universities

24:00 Leveling up young men is not zero-sum or misogynistic

27:23 How dating apps make it difficult to find a partner

30:00 Dating app economy would have greater inequality than Venezuela

32:28 Need to invest in third spaces

34:13 Universities have become luxury brands

38:22 Rejectionist luxury universities are un-American

40:18 Student debt forgiveness was terrible

46:02 UNC is a gift, literally like a pharmaceutical

48:39 Thoughts on Twitter/ Elon Musk

54:30 Thoughts on the power of TikTok

#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put Nov 16, 2022

Show notes

Danielle DiMartino Booth, the CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC,a research and analytics firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 31.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers, but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally.

Since inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America(Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

(Also, here are the links to Danielle's 2007 papers at the Dallas Fed, The Rise And Fall Of Subprime Mortgages: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0711.pdf, and From Complacency To Crisis: Financial Risk Taking in the early 21st Century https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0712.pdf)

0:00 Intro

0:42 At a critical juncture

1:38 We’re in a global recession right now

2:50 A much different construct in this layoff cycle

4:17 A white-collar recession

5:45 How a white-collar wave of layoffs impacts the economy

6:37 Quiet quitting is un-American

8:32 Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?

10:40 Few are accustomed to the type of Fed we have now

12:05 Maybe Jay Powell wants to kill the Fed put

15:20 Jay Powell wants to establish a better legacy

16:47 Not enough at the Fed has changed

18:12 If the Fed succeeds, Main Street will be the real winner

22:22 There will be air come out of this housing bubble

25:08 Investors exacerbating this housing cycle

27:13 Fed policies fed speculation in housing

28:18 The risk lives in the credit market

30:50 Watching continuous jobless claims

32:00 Are we set up for an even worse recession?

33:00 Biggest risk

35:19 Millennials, Gen Z will have to deal with a different reality

37:17 Time for Millennials to rise

#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise' Nov 10, 2022

Show notes

Vitaliy Katsenelson, the CEO at IMA, a value investing firm in Denver, joins Julia on episode 30 to discuss his newest book, Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life, which is his first non-investing book. Vitaliy shares his love of writing, family, work, music, and stoic philosophy in the book.

In this episode, Vitaliy details his backstory of growing up in Soviet Russia and coming to America. He also shares his impressions of capitalism and how investing was “love at first sight.” For Vitality, writing is the most important thing that’s transformed his life and career, and he spends 700 hours each year writing.

Vitaliy views Stoicism as an operating system for life. He wishes he had encountered Stoicism when his mother died of brain cancer when he was 11, and that tragedy helped bring him closer to his father.

Elsewhere, Vitaliy shares his views of the markets and why high-interest rates are making value investing great again. He dives into his thesis of a Dot-com Bubble 2.0, how tech stocks became overvalued thanks to abundant capital, and how eventually, that sector will be a “value investor’s paradise.” He also shared his economic outlook and house the housing market is worse than you think.

0:00 Intro

0:42 Born in Russia, made in America

2:36 First impressions of capitalism

4:31 First taste of Pepsi

8:01 Finance was ‘love at first sight’

12:28 Writing journey

16:30 700 hours per year writing

19:08 Navigating a painful period through writing

22:50 Losing mother to brain cancer at age 11

25:00 Stoicism as an operating system for life

27:00 Stoicism and investing

30:12 High interest rates make value investing great again

32:33 How low rates fueled tech stocks

35:36 Thoughts on tech layoffs

36:46 Quiet quitting ends with loud firing

39:00 Dot-com bubble 2.0

44:37 Tech stocks will become a value investor’s paradise

46:00 We’re likely going to have a recession

46:55 Housing market is worse than you think

51:00 Where it gets worse for homeowners

52:05 A value investor’s framework during a recession

53:37 America became more tribal

55:40 Student loan debt forgiveness is a slippery slope

1:02:00 A moral hazard

1:03:00 Final thoughts

#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest Nov 08, 2022

Show notes

Billionaire investor and tech entrepreneur Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and now the CEO and Revolution, joins Julia La Roche on episode 29 to discuss his newest book, "The Rise Of The Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream."

In 2014, Case launched Revolution's "Rise of the Rest," an initiative to accelerate the growth of startups based outside of Silicon Valley. Rise of the Rest is based on a simple idea: talent is equally distributed, but opportunity is not.

Historically, 75% of venture capital money has flown to three states — California, New York, and Massachusetts, resulting in a "brain drain," where people who grew up in Middle America move to Silicon Valley for opportunities.

Since 2014, Case and the Revolution team have traveled more than 11,000 miles to 43 cities on the Rise of the Rest bus to visit entrepreneurial ecosystems and highlight great companies and entrepreneurs. On each tour, they hit five cities in five days, meeting with startups and elected officials. Rise of the Rest hosts a pitch competition and invests $100,000 in a local startup.

As a result of our tours, Revolution launched two $150 million Rise of the Rest Seed Funds to invest in seed stage companies between the coasts. Rise of The Rest has attracted big-name backers, including John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Eric Schmidt, Tory Burch, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Howard Schultz, and many more.

0:00 Intro

0:35 Traveling the U.S. by bus

2:00 American cities on the rise

3:25 Top-tier returns outside of Silicon Valley

8:35 75% of venture capital goes to 3 states

11:46 Peak Silicon Valley?

15:10 The Third Wave of the Internet

17:30 Something is brewing out there

19:30 Dealing with the skepticism

21:28 200 investments in 100 cities

23:05 New venture firms launched outside CA, NY, MA

24:20 Evaluating entrepreneurs

26:30 Startups fuel job growth

29:15 Seeing America by road

30:22 Why is America divided?

33:50 Slowing the brain drain

36:15 The boomerang effect

39:09 America’s success is not guaranteed

41:45 Need for immigration reform

43:11 Early days of the internet

47:47 Director of New Pizza Development

49:24 Advice for the next-gen entrepreneur

#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’ Nov 03, 2022

Show notes

Dr. Nomi Prins, economist and author of the new book “Permanent Distortion: How The Financial Markets Abandoned The Real Economy Forever,” joins Julia on episode 28.

Dr. Prins is an international economist, investigative journalist, geopolitical financial expert, and outspoken advocate for economic reform. She was a member of Senator Bernie Sanders’ panel of top economic experts advising on Fed reform.

Dr. Prins’ new book exposes the ever-growing divide between the financial markets and the real economy and the unprecedented crises it has caused. This conversation explores how we got to a permanent distortion and why the Fed and its policies are at the epicenter.

0:00 Intro

0:43 Goldman Sachs MD to investigative journalist

3:05 What is the Permanent Distortion

5:00 The Fed is at the epicenter

8:55 The Fed is pretending to be an inflation hero

13:02 One big convenient lie

14:55 Relationship between the Fed and Wall Street

18:00 Will the Fed ever be reformed?

21:06 Unelected officials control the money

22:33 Credibility of the Fed

24:08 From a great distortion to a permanent distortion

27:44 Inflation likely to remain higher than Fed’s 2% target

32:02 Fed could’ve mitigated the home/rent part of inflation

35:11 What would Dr. Prins ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell?

36:40 Dr. Prins' speeches before central bankers

40:10 Why central banks globally act in lockstep

41:49 Meme stock mania a symptom of Fed policies

44:20 The evolution of Bitcoin

47:33 Solutions to address the permanent distortion

50:40 5 economic sectors emerging

52:20 What happens if nothing changes?

54:00 Final thoughts

#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable Nov 01, 2022

Show notes

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and board member of startup bank Battle Financial, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on natural resources.

Rule, who has more than 49 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He’s long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic, thanks mainly to the excesses of artificially low interest rates, artificially induced liquidity, and systematic overregulation. Rule expects there will be 3 or 4 “very hard years not too far in the future,” and it will be “severe but survivable.” He added that he’s investing aggressively.

During the conversation, Rule shared his view on energy, the diesel shortage in the U.S., and his thesis on investing in uranium. He detailed some of the fictional narratives about energy, including why the narrative that we’re going to replace fossil fuels is a joke. Elsewhere, Rule outlined why one should invest in gold, which he characterizes as an insurance policy. He also shared why he's speculating on silver.

0:00 Intro

0:31 ‘Failing’ retirement

2:46 Macro view as a credit analyst

5:00 A reckoning from rising rates

6:25 War on savers

8:58 Young people are becoming aware at a great rate

10:15 Long-term demographic trends

13:03 Idiocy of energy policies

15:27 People are waking up to the need for fossil fuels today

17:30 Diesel fuel shortages in the U.S.

21:31 It’s a joke that we’re going to replace fossil fuels

24:44 Investment thesis for uranium

28:15 Triumph of reality over narrative

32:55 Ways to invest in uranium

34:30 Biggest risks of investing in uranium

34:45 Outlook on gold

40:00 Gold as a life insurance policy

41:45 Why buy a 10-Year Treasury?

43:30 Will the Fed stop inflation?

44:45 Will long-term optimism end?

48:30 Social Security

49:45 How to invest in gold

52:30 Thoughts on silver

56:00 Where to find more from Rick Rule

#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001 Oct 27, 2022

Show notes

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week.

Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada.

During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year.

0:00 Intro

0:36 Early beginnings trading FX

2:24 Trading and writing cartoons

7:14 Writing critical to trading success

12:31 Daily trading plan

16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening

18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term

19:46 Mortgage resets

21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later

23:23 Sell rallies in stocks

24:16 Fed losing credibility

28:03 Playing the optimism trade

30:28 Good time for macro

32:00 Tactical trading approach

34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality

37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001

42:00 What breaks things?

43:43 Magazine cover indicator

#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern Oct 25, 2022

Show notes

Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020.

Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge.

Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading.

In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern.

0:00 Intro

0:31 St. Petersburg to America

1:38 Early interest in Wall Street

2:53 Poker and investing

4:39 Psychology of trading

8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book

12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp

13:33 Two words: Policy lag

17:04 Outlook for rates

20:22 Implications of deflation

24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars?

27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression