Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#043 Jon Hilsenrath On Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen And Navigating An Era Of Upheaval Dec 29, 2022

Show notes

Jon Hilsenrath of The Wall Street Journal joins Julia La Roche on episode 43 to discuss his new book, "Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval."

In this episode, Hilsenrath discusses his decision to write a book about Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her husband, Nobel laureate economist George Akerlof, in the form of a love story. He highlights the couple's central role in economic debates over the years. He aims to humanize top figures in economics while also incorporating historical lessons and personal lessons about work, family, and more. He also touches on the imperfect nature of capitalism and democracy, the importance of rebuilding trust in institutions, the state of journalism, and his own experiences as the son of a war refugee. He also shares how he got a C in Economics 101 at Duke (Full disclosure: Julia also got a C in Econ 101 at UNC).

Hilsenrath is a senior writer for The Wall Street Journal, where he has written about economics and finance since 1997. He has worked as a writer and editor in Hong Kong, New York and Washington, D.C. Many of his stories have focused on causes and consequences of economic and financial crises. He was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2014 for his coverage of the Federal Reserve; part of a WSJ team that was a Pulitzer finalist in 2009 for coverage of the financial crisis; and contributed on-the-ground reporting to the WSJ’s 9/11 coverage which won a Pulitzer in 2002. He graduated from Duke University in 1989 and was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow and M.B.A. graduate from Columbia Business School in 1996.

0:00 Intro

0:45 A shower idea

2:00 A love story

3:17 4 lessons for breaking glass ceilings

7:35 What did Yellen get right? What did Yellen get wrong?

10:00 Recency bias in economics profession

12:28 Larry Summers

15:00 Late to the Biden Administration

17:00 She’ll be the Treasury Secretary for a little longer

17:55 Yellen, Summers’ approach to an airport

20:30 Human behavior in economics, markets

22:40 Human screw up on both sides of the equation

24:30 Hilsenrath’s takeaways

27:33 Trust is a mess

30:26 Examining issues through Yellen’s story

31:00 Rebuilding, restoring trust

34:58 Hilsenrath’s family story

38:10 Are you proud to be a journalist?

41:59 Jon and Julia both got a C in Econ 101

45:21 Explaining economics through the book, “Yellen”

46:17 Thoughts on “Fed Whisperer” nickname

52:22 Parting thoughts

#042 MEGATHREATS: 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini's Scariest Prediction Dec 27, 2022

Show notes

Dr. Nouriel Roubini (@nouriel), Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 42 to discuss his newest book, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them.

Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, warned of the housing crisis and impending recession, but it was too late. Roubini is now making another prediction that is even more alarming and should not be overlooked.

The world is facing a multitude of interconnected threats, referred to as Megathreats, that have the potential to cause widespread disaster. According to Roubini, these Megathreats are all connected and threaten not only our jobs, income, savings, and wealth but also our health, the planet's health, and even our species' survival.

These Megathreats include the worst debt crisis ever seen, excessive money printing by governments, blocked borders for workers and goods, the growing competition between China and the US, and the effects of climate change on heavily populated cities.

Roubini says we're "sleepwalking into disaster," and this book is a "wake-up call." Time is of the essence in addressing these issues and attempting to prevent their adverse outcomes.

Roubini is also the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

0:00 Roubini's new book

2:58 Connecting the dots of 10 Megathreats

4:00 World faces the biggest test since WWII

5:50 Mother of all debt crises

11:00 A perfect storm

18:00 Can we go back to 2% inflation without a hard landing?

19:30 Debate is no longer a soft or hard landing

20:42 Not going to be a short and shallow recession

23:42 Factors that could lead to a hard landing

24:00 Central banks are going to blink

24:45 Demographic time bomb

28:50 Intergenerational conflict between young and old

31:40 AI as a megathreat

35:14 AI will usher in a massive increase in income and wealth inequality

36:00 The trouble with UBI

39:00 Threat to our species

41:00 ChatGPT

41:50 Roubini's advice to young people

46:27 Public enemy No. 1 of crypto since 2017

49:40 Crypto is 'the biggest financial fraud in human history'

51:58 Megathreat of financial instability

54:40 US dollar status as the global reserve currency

56:00 Divided world

58:00 De-dollarization, rise in gold

1:00:31 Do you want to own gold right now?

1:03:00 What to own in this scenario?

1:06:38 Global pandemics

1:11:13 Things Roubini never used to worry about

1:13:05 World looks more like the period between 1914 in 194

1:15:20 Sleepwalking into disaster

1:19:00 How do we survive the Megathreats?

1:21:20 Technology is the solution

1:23:00 Parting thoughts

#041 Jim Bianco: Recession Has Become The New Bull Story On Wall Street Dec 22, 2022

Show notes

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch), founder and president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 41.

In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we’ve entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11. He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise.

Bianco also outlines how we’ve entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won’t return to 2%.

Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker’s market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he’s watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he’s still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what’s needed for the space.

0:00 Macro view

0:31 2023 starts off with a divergence

1:10 A different era of persistent inflation

2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie

3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession

5:01 A recession is the bull story

5:35 Bianco’s view on a recession

7:05 What the Fed is hoping for

10:35 Inflation

12:41 Why we won’t get back to 2%

13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service

14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude

15:42 China is a disaster right now

18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over

20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy

23:00 Energy

27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story

33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds

35:58 Japan has an inflation problem

37:00 There’s a developed world inflation problem

38:22 More implications from the BOJ’s surprise move

40:29 It’s now a stock picker’s market

42:26 George Noble

43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting

45:35 Equities

47:00 More on fixed income

50:45 Thoughts on gold

52:20 GLD

58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF

1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino

1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable

1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry

1:11:40 Book recommendation

#040 Tom Thornton On Why We Might See True Capitulation In The Markets In 2023 Dec 20, 2022

Show notes

Tom Thornton (@TommyThornton), founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, has had an incredible year amid market turbulence. The former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst has delivered returns of 52% so far in 2022.

In this episode, Tom, who focuses on sentiment indicators, explains why markets are nervous and that we haven’t seen a true market capitulation yet. He predicts that in 2023 we might see capitulation as the retail investor starts to give up.

Elsewhere, Tom weighs in on his investment process and approach. He also shares his thoughts on the Fed’s rate hikes and why he doesn’t expect any rate cuts next year. He also details his short on Tesla.

Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry, which features market sentiment, macro daily insights utilizing DeMark Indicators, sector rotations, and long and short trade ideas with professional commentary and more.

0:00 Approach to markets

4:47 Sizing positions

11:13 Time horizons

13:12 The market is nervous

16:50 Capitulation

18:26 No safe place to hide

22:50 The Fed

27:27 Market’s Fed dependency

38:48 Elon Musk and Tesla

48:08 Hedge Fund Telemetry

#039 Stephanie Link On The Fed, Markets, And Working With Jim Cramer Dec 15, 2022

Show notes

Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors and CNBC contributor, Joins Julia La Roche on episode 39 to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate hike, her economic and market outlook for 2023, her investment process, what makes a great CEO, working with Jim Cramer, and more.

Stephanie Link joined Hightower in June 2020 as Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower. Before joining Hightower, Ms. Link was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. She also served as Chief Investment Officer at TheStreet, Co-Portfolio Manager of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, and Managing Director of Institutional Sales and Director of Research at Prudential Equity Group. With over 27 years of experience managing money, Ms. Link’s insights are frequently sought after for industry events and by the media, and is a CNBC contributor for several shows, including The Halftime Report, Closing Bell, and Squawk Box.

0:00 Intro

0:00 Reaction to the Fed rate hike

2:33 Should be ratcheting down the hawkishness

3:33 Outlook on rate hikes

4:30 Theory on market reaction to Fed

5:30 Pivot off the table in Q1

7:08 Inflation

9:06 Fed’s 2% inflation target

10:06 Big picture view of the economy

14:45 Investment approach

19:12 Opportunities

23:12 Picking the No. 1 and 2 players

25:00 Betting against consumer is not a great thing

27:12 Evaluating management teams, CEOs

30:22 What makes a great leader?

34:39 Jim Cramer

39:57 Buying when a stock is down

42:00 Pursuing a career in finance/investing

45:00 CNBC

47:40 Sports team

49:20 Routine

51:20 Parting thoughts

#038 ‘Art & Equity’ With Blythe Masters, Brett Redfearn, Elizabeth Von Habsburg, and Carlos Domingo Dec 13, 2022

Show notes

Blythe Masters, founding partner at Motive Partners; Brett Redfearn, founder of Panorama Financial Markets Advisory; Liz Von Habsburg, managing director at Winston Art Group; and Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, join Julia La Roche on episode 38.

This episode is a recording of a panel from Art Basel hosted by Securitize called “Art & Equity: Expanding Access to High-Quality Assets from Fine Art to Private Equity.”

0:00 Intros

6:27 Defining tokenization, the blockchain

8:51 Use cases for tokenization

10:14 How blockchain, crypto has disappointed many

13:00 Looking at crypto/blockchain through First Principles

15:00 Real-world use cases

16:20 Opportunity to democratize capital markets with blockchain

19:00 Expanding access to art and PE

22:08 Thoughts on FTX fiasco

25:40 Crypto industry’s reaction

28:08 Evolution in art investing through technology

29:20 Short-term pain, long-term gain

30:15 Ownership is an ‘enormous prize’ for blockchain technology

34:00 You can’t break everything

35:28 Basic fundamental problems that could benefit from digitization

37:15 Don’t underestimate what can be done with the existing regulatory framework

#037 Axel Merk On The Fed's Sledgehammer Approach To The Economy Dec 08, 2022

Show notes

Macro expert Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, joins Julia La Roche on episode 37 to discuss monetary policy, the economy, gold, and more.

In this episode, Merk details the Federal Reserve's sledgehammer approach to monetary policy and why the central bank will likely push the economy into recession. He also shared his thesis on stagflation.

Merk outlined why next year's market might be "more nuanced." He also shared his outlook on gold, the U.S. dollar, and more.

Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Macro view

1:45 Sledgehammer approach

2:06 A more nuanced market in 2023

2:49 Central banks trying to fix their mistakes

5:14 Extremely counterproductive policies

6:18 Rates should be coming down

7:27 Fed is basically a debating club

8:11 The Fed needs a new framework

10:38 Why The Fed might pause hikes at the May meeting

13:00 Inflation outlook

16:40 Social implications of policy

19:24 Stagflation thesis

23:00 Investing in gold

25:30 3 types of gold investors

26:56 Gold is the purest indicator of monetary policy

30:24 U.S. Dollar outlook

32:48 What does a more nuanced market look like?

35:40 Merk’s framework

40:20 Why invest in gold miners

45:00 Merk’s journey in the financial markets

49:40 Building and growing a business

51:40 Pilot

53:13 Parting thoughts

#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession Dec 06, 2022

Show notes

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.

In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations.

Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times.

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out"

0:54 View of the global macroeconomy

1:37 The supply chain is the economy

3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains?

6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences

12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare

13:24 The future supply chain will look very different

14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were

20:00 Supply Chain 1.0

23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans

30:24 National security and geopolitics

33:48 A college of nations

39:00 Peak China

42:00 Inflation

47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation

49:49 Disinflation and deflation

51:12 Severe recession

54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates?

1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare

1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?

#035 Envestnet Co-CIO Dana D’Auria On Personalizing Portfolios Dec 01, 2022

Show notes

Dana D’Auria, co-CIO of Envestnet, joins Julia La Roche on episode 35.

D’Auria, an English major, started her career as a journalist on the business beat and transitioned into finance after earning an MBA. A background in writing has been instrumental in the investment world, especially in explaining complex topics.

She spent 14 years at Symmetry Partners, serving as director of research and managing director and portfolio manager before joining Envestnet. The fin-tech b2b company provides technology and tools for financial advisors to offer hyper-personalized experiences for clients’ portfolios.

Elsewhere, D’Auria shared her macroeconomic outlook, what’s top of mind amongst investors and clients, and why value investing is attractive in a rising rate environment.

0:00 Dana’s journey from business journalism to working in finance

2:41 Gaps in the education system as it relates to finance

5:06 Envestnet, explained

8:20 Leveraging insights for client’s portfolios

10:37 How the advent of tech and access to data changes the money management

13:00 Humans + machines

16:28 Rough ride in markets

19:08 Future of the traditional 60/40 portfolio

21:53 Types of bear markets

24:11 What kinds of conversations with clients?

29:27 Value investing

31:42 Market outlook

36:39 Personalizing a portfolio

#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG Nov 29, 2022

Show notes

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34.

Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions.

Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.”

In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling

1:45 We were getting lied to all the time

2:35 Law School

3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks

5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets

6:55 The Sino-Forest short

9:55 Grifting in the ESG space

13:20 The Sunrun short thesis

19:50 Impact of rising rates

21:18 DLocal short thesis

26:28 DLocal’s response