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    News & Politics

    The Horse Race

    Your weekly update on Massachusetts politics, policy and elections. Hosted by Steve Koczela and Jennifer Smith.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Episode 145: Run DMC Aug 20, 2020
    Show notes

    8/20/20--It's the final day of the all-virtual Democratic National Convention. Joe Biden is officially the Democratic nominee for President, and guests this week join us to discuss the highs and lows. First though, co-host and Politico Massachusetts Playbook author Stephanie Murray gives us the rundown on the U.S. congressional races heating up here in Massachusetts. In the Massachusetts 1st Congressional District where Congressman Richard Neal and Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse debated publicly for the first time this week. Stephanie provides an overview of the accusations swirling around Morse and the College Democrats of Massachusetts. Challenger Robbie Goldstein faces off against incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th, and Congressman Seth Moulton is looking to defend his seat in the 6th district against Jamie Zahlaway Belsito and Angus McQuilken. Wilnelia Rivera, President of Rivera Consulting, Katherine Adam, Vice President of Denterlein, and Alex Goldstein, CEO of Ninety West stopped by The Horse Race to offer their takes on the DNC as well as Democrats' response to the coronavirus crisis and its fallout on individuals' health and finances. Rivera, who co-authored a chapter of the new book "TURNOUT! Mobilizing Voters in an Emergency" with Adam, said Democrats' strategy of targeting centrist voters is a flawed one. "If you actually look at what’s been happening since 2016 is that the partisan divide in this country has expanded and what that has done is actually shrunk that middle of independent voters." Goldstein, who is behind the Faces of COVID Twitter account, sharing the stories of those who lost their lives to COVID-19, says it's important candidates show empathy and an understanding of the moment we're living in. "Putting all the specific policy issues aside, 175,000 people are dead in this country because of a mismanaged public policy response to a pandemic."


    Episode 144: We're Not Ready For Some Football Aug 13, 2020
    Show notes

    8/13/20-- After much anticipation, Democratic candidate for president Joe Biden has officially announced his 2020 running mate: California Senator Kamala Harris. This is a historic selection in a number of ways. Harris is the first Black woman to be on a major party’s presidential ticket. And because Biden has said if he is elected in 2020 he would not run for a second term, Harris would be well-placed for a 2024 presidential run if events run that course. And, because there’s ALWAYS a Massachusetts connection, the announcement puts an end to speculation over who might fill Elizabeth Warren’s Senate seat if she were to become the Vice President. (Still much speculation to come if she’s selected for a cabinet position, though.) Across the commonwealth, schools are deciding how to start the academic year. Different districts are choosing different plans. Some are beginning with all-remote learning, some with all in-person, and others with a hybrid approach. Steve mentions one thing to keep an eye on is the economic impact of school reopenings. One sentiment he's been hearing is, "I will not be able to keep my job if I’m also expected to be home and if I’m expected to be supervising [my kids'] learning.” As the primary election approaches and anxieties remain around voting in-person, a new survey from The MassINC Polling Group finds about 4 in 10 Massachusetts voters plan to vote by mail. Among those voters choosing the mail-in option, a stunning 85% of them plan to vote for Biden, with just 9% of them planning to vote for Trump. Election night this year is going to look different from every other election night in recent history, with tallies coming in later than we've come to expect. In Massachusetts, given this data split, we could see Biden's votes racking up much more slowly than Trump's come election night. Sports teams are facing a hurdle as Major League Baseball is postponing scheduled games in response to the latest COVID-19 outbreak among its players. Meanwhile, basketball and hockey are happening, but in bubbles. MassINC Polling Group Research Director and Vice Admiral of Horse Race sports correspondents Maeve Duggan stops by to give her take on the future of sports in the age of coronavirus. Maeve points to polling done by Seton Hall earlier this spring that found, for the most part, sports fans are not comfortable attending games in person until a vaccine is available. Plus, a series of Harris polls released this summer found a majority of Americans (58%) don't even think the MLB should be playing right now. Maeve directs us to Washington Nationals pitcher Sean Doolittle, who said, “Sports are like the reward of a functioning society." To that, Maeve says, "Do we have a functioning society right now? I think many would argue no."


    Episode 142: The Endorse Race Jul 30, 2020
    Show notes

    7/30/20--As election season bears down upon us all, applications for mail-in ballots should now have officially arrived at the residences of all registered Massachusetts voters. Biden said he will make his VP selection next week. Elizabeth Warren’s name has been bandied about as a potential pick, and if that ends up being the case, look out for what could be a very interesting special election. A coalition of Black state legislative staffers are calling out the racist behavior they’ve witnessed in their workplaces and demanding reform. The staffers with the Beacon BLOC group on Wednesday wrote a letter to Speaker DeLeo, Senate President Spilka, and Secretary of State Bill Galvin outlining their demands. As special guest co-host and State House News Service Reporter Katie Lannan describes, the group would like to see leadership "take steps that they say would make the State House a place that values and supports Black staffers.” As policy proposals aimed at systemic racism circulate through the chambers, the group addresses the idea that, as Katie puts it, “if you’re going to be talking about this stuff from a policy angle, you want to get there from a human resources angle as well.” Strange happenings abound this week, beginning with an unusually early endorsement coming from The Boston Globe. The Globe endorsed incumbent Senator Ed Markey for re-election Tuesday. Markey’s up against U.S. Congressman Joe Kennedy III, whose team said the endorsement served as an effort to uphold the status quo for the paper’s “disproportionately white, well-off, well-educated readers.” Politico Massachusetts Playbook author Stephanie Murray covered the development, and switches from her usual post as co-host to guest to weigh in. She says the campaign’s method of response backfired. “By choosing to respond to it in this way, it actually stretched coverage and conversation about the endorsement into another day.” Speaking of endorsements, neither Kennedy nor Markey during this week’s debate were willing to endorse or disavow Governor Baker for re-election in 2022. Stephanie says, “To knock the popular governor right before the voters of Massachusetts are going to decide on you is kind of a tough spot to be in.” And popular he certainly is. The MassINC Polling Group finds 77% of Massachusetts voters hold a favorable view of Baker. All is topsy turvy on Beacon Hill as the House votes to extend the legislative session beyond its July 31st deadline through the end of the year. Good thing The Horse Race is joined by state legislature expert and veteran State House News Reporter Katie Lannan to explain what this means for the high-priority policy proposals that have yet to be passed. The purpose of the deadline itself, Katie explains, "is pretty much to insulate lawmaking from the campaign season, so you’re not campaigning by policy.” “It serves as kind of the stopping point in election years in the second year of the session for major bills, things still get done after that point, but the controversial things are wrapped up before that point often at midnight on July 31st.” The deadline has not been moved yet. So far, Senate has not voted on the measure. As to what the next five months will look like if the extension does go into effect, that’s unclear. “This is really uncharted territory here,” Katie says. There have been suspensions allowing for more time for formal session in the past, but only in November in the first year of the term. To be doing it in July during a “weird and hectic campaign season” is new. Major legislation that has yet to be decided, spanning topics from police accountability and racial justice to economic development to climate change to transportation. New MassINC Polling Group data finds voters are keen to see changes in transportation, and largely support new funds for that. Though political will for major transportation changes appears strong, exactly when legislation will pass remains a mystery.


    Episode 141: From Boom Time to Zoom Time Jul 23, 2020
    Show notes

    7/23/20--While co-host Stephanie Murray is off for a much-deserved vacation this week, Steve Koczela and Jennifer Smith have plenty to talk about both in national and statewide politics and policy. President Trump signed a memo on Wednesday instructing the Commerce Department to leave out unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. from the census report that determines distribution of Congressional seats. As Jenn points out, this is not the first time the Trump administration has attempted to tangle in the census process of counting all persons. Back in pre-COVID times, the Trump administration tried to put a question on the census asking about citizenship status. We at The Horse Race have spent a lot of time covering COVID-era housing issues, because it's a basic human need that, as evidenced by data from The MassINC Polling Group, has become incredibly difficult for some Massachusetts residents to hold onto during this crisis. The statewide eviction and foreclosure moratorium was set to expire mid-August, and polling conducted in June found many renters and homeowners did not feel confident they could catch up on housing payments by that point. Governor Baker announced Tuesday that moratorium will be extended until October 17, protecting renters and homeowners from foreclosure and eviction at least until then. Businesses across the state are hurting, regardless of their size. But new polling from The MassINC Polling finds that some factors make businesses much more vulnerable to hardship brought on by the pandemic, whether that's revenue loss or accessibility to aid. Very small businesses, for example, have not applied for PPP as often or received the full amount they applied for as larger businesses. The industry in which the business resides also has a lot to do with if and to what capacity they're operating. Those that deal in a lot of in-person interactions like education and beauty businesses as well as bars and restaurants are more likely to be closed and less likely to be open completely. Many small businesses are also women- and/or minority-owned. More than half of businesses owned by women and women of color reported revenue drops of half or more in the first half of 2020. While Congress turns its attention to a second stimulus package, Boston Indicators is proposing a more permanent form of financial security in the shape of a guaranteed minimum income for lower-income Massachusetts families. This would be executed via reforms to the pre-existing Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). In the research report, Boston Indicators Director Luc Schuster, points to the systemic income inequities in Massachusetts, and says that given Massachusetts wealth as a state, it has the resources at its disposal to ultimately eliminate poverty. With the EITC as a foundation, Luc says, “It would be pretty easy to just build on top of that to make more categories of households eligible and increase the benefit.”


    Episode 140: The Midnight Ride of Poll Revere Jul 16, 2020
    Show notes

    7/16/20-- This week in #mapoli coverage begins with a national news item with a Massachusetts connection. The Trump administration on Tuesday rescinded a proposal to bar current international students from studying in the US if all their classes are taught online. They would have been asked to either transfer to institutions with at least one in person class or self-deport. This happened during a federal hearing of a lawsuit initiated by Harvard and MIT. And speaking of lawsuits, the Secretary of the Commonwealth's office told news outlets that applications for mail-in ballots for registered primary voters in Massachusetts are being sent out. This comes after voting rights organizations sued Secretary Bill Galvin, saying he needed to mail the applications by July 15 regardless of the funding issues he had pointed to as reason for delay. The Massachusetts Senate passed a police reform bill Tuesday that would ban chokeholds, limit the use of tear gas, and train law enforcement officers in the history of racism. The bill, if passed, would limit qualified immunity that protects officers from civil lawsuits. This aspect was the only notable point of contention in the Senate and has also upset police union leaders in Massachusetts. Stephanie Murray provides an update on the news landscape here in Massachusetts that, like everywhere, was already suffering disinvestment before COVID hit, but the pandemic has only exacerbated conditions. News outlets across the state are suffering, and reporters are enduring furloughs and layoffs, leaving a smaller and smaller group of people to cover the fallout from a global crisis. Steve Koczela presents snapshots of public opinion on one aspect of such fallout--how families are thinking about higher education int he midst of the pandemic. It turns out that while most (roughly three-quarters) of Massachusetts parents of 10th, 11th, and 12th graders say that their children's college plans have not changed, that leaves one-quarter of parents whose kids' plans have changed. Those who say their child will delay entry tend to be those who have been the most disadvantaged throughout the shutdown--families who lack sufficient devices and Internet connection, families who speak languages other than English at home, and families with lower incomes. On a lighter note, Steve, Jennifer, and Stephanie, upon hearing of the city of Chicago's recently established Census Cowboy, decided Massachusetts could use a similar vigilante. They asked the good people of Twitter who would make a good Census Cowboy for the Bay State and were flooded with dozens of ingenious responses. The winner: a photoshopped Bill Weld, eating a turkey leg atop a horse, wearing a cowboy hat. We at The Horse Race believe we need that now more than ever.


    Episode 139: A Rivera Runs Through It Jul 09, 2020
    Show notes

    7/8/20-- This week brings more news out of the Supreme Court where two decisions were made in favor of religious interests. Our in-house legal analyst Jennifer Smith breaks them both down. Also this week, Governor Charlie Baker announced free, on-demand COVID-19 testing would become available to residents of 8 communities that have been hit especially hard by the disease. Jon Hillman and Wilnelia Rivera of the Democratic consulting firm Rivera Consulting dropped by The Horse Race virtual bunker to talk vote by mail an dispel their predictions for the changing 2020 political landscape. On the recently passed early voting and vote by mail legislation to be implemented here in Massachusetts, both Hillman and Rivera are bracing for impact, both doubtful that our state is adequately equipped for the change. Hillman, a Senior Consultant and Researcher at the firm says of vote by mail, "There’s a lot of states that have been doing this for decades that it’s part of their political infrastructure, and to an extent they’re ready for this influx. In a state like Massachusetts, we don’t have a culture like that." Rivera and Hillman stressed that vote by mail is overdue. "We need to redistribute power on Beacon Hill, and vote by mail is a way to do that," Rivera says. On the national front, Rivera sees Joe Biden's vice presidential pick as an important step in igniting an enthusiastic voting base. "We have to give the American electorate-- particularly the Black electorate-- the candidate that they're asking for. And that's a black woman." The right vice presidential pick will be essential in building a movement, she says. Meanwhile, Biden "represents a tradition and stability of what the Democratic party has been, but [he] doesn't represent its future."


    Episode 138: School's Out For...Ever? Jul 02, 2020
    Show notes

    7/2/20--It’s almost the 4th of July, though if we’re going by the amount of fireworks set off, it’s been 4th of July for several weeks now. There’s also reason for celebration because it’s Poll Release Day. Steve Koczela & co. at The MassINC Polling Group have new data on Massachusetts parents of K-12 students and their experiences with remote learning. But first up, we bring you the latest headlines. Voting reform legislation is on the move after the Massachusetts House and Senate struck a deal this week. After the bill is expected to be voted through by both houses, it will go to the governor’s desk, where, if signed, the Secretary of State’s office would send all Massachusetts voters applications to request mail-in ballots. Voters would receive applications by July 15 for primary ballots and in September for general ballots. As Stephanie Murray reported yesterday, Senators Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders filed a bill to end qualified immunity. Qualified immunity is a judicial doctrine that bars police officers from being sued in their personal capacity when they violate someone’s constitutional rights. A version of the bill has been filed in the house by Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Congressman Justin Amash. Stephanie also notes Ed Markey and Bernie Sanders have been teaming up a lot lately, and she wonders if Sanders might endorse Markey some time during his re-election campaign. In the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District, the field of candidates vying for Joe Kennedy’s vacant seat is busy. We spoke with yet another candidate in the race yesterday afternoon. Dave Cavell served in Governor Deval Patrick’s administration as well as President Obama’s, and he told the Horse Race hosts he’s running because….. “I thought we needed to bring real leadership and experience and integrity and professionalism to this work and to the federal government at a moment of real crisis for the country.” “This is the time for somebody who can not just vote the right way, but lead the right way.” The District 4 race is still wide open. Polling shows 60% voters in the district are undecided. Cavell says winning is not determined by who raises the most money. He points to lessons he’s learned from his previous “bosses,” (Maura Healey, Deval Patrick, the Obamas). “Go everywhere and you meet everyone,” Cavell said. “And that’s the way that you win these races.” Thanks to last week’s special guest, MassINC Polling Group Research Director, Maeve Duggan, we got a glimpse into data on Massachusetts parents of K-12 students, who were largely divided over school reopening plans. This week, Steve Koczela brings us more findings on that polling, namely, parents’ experiences in terms of how their kids interacted with school was not at all homogeneous. Whether parents were asked how frequently their child participated in an online class, received personalized feedback, or had a one-on-one check in with a teacher, responses were all over the map. Check out the full slides at https://www.massincpolling.com/the-topline/2020/7/1/new-poll-of-k-12-parents-finds-remote-learning-has-taken-academic-emotional-toll


    Episode 137: Schoolhouse Rocked Jun 25, 2020
    Show notes

    6/24/20--A state report was released today on the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home that was the site of a deadly coronavirus outbreak. 76 people, more than a third of the veterans residing at the home, died of COVID-19-related causes. The report found that leadership at the state-run home made “substantial errors” that “likely contributed” to the death toll. Investigations from the Massachusetts Department of Justice and Attorney General Maura Healey will follow, and Governor Charlie Baker obtained an outside firm to do an independent review. The report’s release prompted a resignation from the Massachusetts Secretary of Veterans Services, Francisco Urena. This is one of several high-profile resignations from state organizations in recent years, following scandals at the state police, the Registry of Motor Vehicles and the Department of Conservation and Recreation. As Stephanie Murray puts it, “this does seem to be some sort of trend where administration officials end up resigning amid really serious issues, but Charlie Baker’s popularity stays really high.” A web-based initiative to model coronavirus data in the U.S., Covid Act Now, found that only 4 states are on track to contain the coronavirus: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Governors of three of those states — all but Charlie Baker — announced a travel advisory starting Thursday that “all individuals traveling from states with significant community spread” of the coronavirus into one of these states must quarantine for 14 days. anyone who doesn’t follow the advisory could be punished by way of a fine. Baker said MA would not be installing such a requirement, calling such an action “unconstitutional.” Co-host and resident legal analyst Jennifer Smith calls this a weird and kind of thorny issue of constitutional law regarding the essential right to travel between states.” We want to hear from you listeners, should we delve into this further with a constitutional law segment next week? Kentucky voters both hit the polls and mailed in ballots yesterday in a Democratic primary contest for Senate that’s garnered national attention. Amy McGrath leads Charles Booker in in-person vote totals, but mailed ballots are still being counted. Officials estimate a winner might not be announced until next week, when all votes are officially tallied. This trend might continue as vote by mail gains popularity, and we might not know who wins future primary and general elections, even the presidential election, on designated election days. In #Veepstakes news, Sen. Amy Klobuchar this week withdraws her name from consideration as a potential VP pick, urging BIden to pick a woman of color. Variety floated Massachusetts Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley as an option. New data from The MassINC Polling Group shows parents of school-age children are divided over plans for school reopenings. MPG Research Director Maeve Duggan shares the data with The Horse Race hosts. The biggest takeaway? “There’s no clear mandate from parents over what they would prefer, and a sizable portion of them are not confident that schools can reopen safely.” Within that, there are divides by race, income, and geography “that we have come to expect when it comes to anything to do with impacts of the coronavirus.” Maeve says the findings in this data support the narrative found in previous work done by MPG and other outlets, that "those who are less confident [about schools reopening], are the same groups that have borne both the health and the economic brunt of the coronavirus crisis."


    Episode 136: Miranda Rights Jun 19, 2020
    Show notes

    6/19/20--As we near the official start of summer, Massachusetts continues with Phase 2 of its reopening plan, with malls and hotels open for business, as well as restaurants for outdoor dining and drinking. No sign yet that Massachusetts will need to backtrack on the reopening, as state officials confirm downward trends continue on each of the four key coronavirus metrics they're tracking. In Supreme Court news, three significant developments were made this week. LGBTQ workers were granted a historic victory when the Supreme Court ruled Monday that the federal law that bars sex discrimination in employment does apply to LGBTQ employees. In a decision that impacts Massachusetts gun laws in particular, justices turned down petitions from 10 challenges to state laws established to limit the availability and accessibility of some firearms and when they can be carried in public. Lastly, on Thursday, the Supreme Court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to end DACA, finding this move unlawful. This decision keeps 640,000 people safe from deportation. State Representative Liz Miranda stops by The Horse Race to discuss legislation she filed alongside Senator Cynthia Creem, An Act to Save Black Lives. The bill, Miranda says, is designed "to really look at use of force guidelines, creating a duty to intervene." It also bans dangerous police tactics such as chokeholds and the use of rubber bullets and tear gas. Independent oversight is called for in the bill, with Miranda naming the attorney general's office as a potential arbiter, saying that while some people turn to civilian review boards when police misconduct is committed, "I looked at the duty of the attorney general and said that there's a real opportunity here to have oversight come from that."


    Episode 135: RENT Jun 11, 2020
    Show notes

    6/10/20-- New data from The MassINC Polling Group show that many Massachusetts renters and homeowners are struggling to make housing payments due to the financial burdens of the coronavirus crisis. MPG President Steve Koczela points to the key finding that people under the most economic strain during the pandemic are also much more likely to be in a household with COVID-19 themselves. Huge disparities exist between demographic groups in likelihood of missing a housing payment, and there is broad support among Massachusetts residents for housing policy proposals. Juana Matias, COO of MassINC and former state Representative for the 16th Essex District of Massachusetts, shares data on race parity in our elected leadership as well as her experience running for the state House of Reps as well as U.S. Congress as a woman of color.


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