The Horse Race

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Episode 163: A Capitol Offense Jan 07, 2021

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1/7/21-- Steve, Jenn, and Stephanie are back in The Horse Race bunker, this time to rehash the unsettling events that took place Wednesday in D.C. when pro-Trump insurrectionists stormed the Capitol building during a process to ratify President-elect Joe Biden's electoral victory. This comes after months of President Trump spouting false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election in which he lost. Rioters were propelled to mob the capitol after a Trump rally that day during which he egged on his crowd. Stephanie called it “a stunning end to the Trump presidency,” but she also pointed out that a resounding sentiment circulating yesterday was that this attack wasn’t exactly surprising to anyone paying attention to what's been spoken about in partisan media and on social media. She spoke with members of the Massachusetts delegation of Congress, all of whom had strong words for the attackers on the capitol and for Trump himself. All members have since called for impeachment or the invocation of the 25th Amendment to strip Trump of his presidential power. Jenn and Steve weigh in on the health of our democracy at this point in time as well as the glaring difference between the mild police treatment of the largely white compared to that of Black Lives Matter protesters this summer that was markedly more aggressive. Later in the show, we play an interview with State House News Service Reporter Katie Lannan that was recorded Wednesday before the insurrection played out in earnest. Katie explains what got accomplished on the last night of the Massachusetts legislative session Tuesday, and what is yet to be decided.

Say Goodbye to 2020 in Massachusetts: A Horse Race Blooper Reel Dec 30, 2020

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12/30/20-- Farewell, 2020! Can't say we'll miss you, but as you can tell from this week's episode, there were some fun moments after all. Please enjoy this end-of-year blooper reel, and we'll be back with new episodes on Massachusetts politics, policy, and elections in 2021!

Episode 162: Could DeLeo be DeLeaving? Dec 23, 2020

Show notes

12/23/20-- Happy Holidays, Horse Racers! We are guilty of claiming last week was our last episode of 2020, but as soon as we hit 'publish,' there was a major development in the Massachusetts legislature, so, we're back. Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives Bob DeLeo officially filed a disclosure Friday saying he's in talks with Northeastern University about a job there, meaning he could be leaving the post he's held for a record-breaking 12 years. In looking ahead to who may fill DeLeo's position if he does in fact step down, many eyes are turning toward Quincy Rep. Ron Mariano, the house majority leader. Mariano says he has the votes to take DeLeo's seat if the moment comes. Stephanie says based on the conversations she's had with lawmakers and others on Beacon Hill, Mariano's takeover "feels like basically a done deal," and for many, it's felt like that for much longer than just the past two weeks. Stephanie says a House of Representatives under Mariano's helm probably wouldn't function all too much differently than when DeLeo was in charge, given Mariano is DeLeo's top debuty. Rep. Russell Holmes of Mattapan by contrast has long taken issue with DeLeo's style of leadership, and announced his run for the speakership Friday. -- To wrap up the year and to gear up for holiday sessions, Jenn and Stephanie take a look at the most popular holiday foods eaten across the U.S. (and judge them accordingly). The fare is all over the map (literally) - from tamales to lasagna to non-fish seafood. With that, we leave you to enjoy your holiday season. We'll be bringing you much more Horse Race content come 2021!

Episode 161: Feelin' '22 Dec 16, 2020

Show notes

12/16/20-- This week, we are both celebrating a new development that is the first COVID-19 vaccinations making their way to U.S. citizens, as well as passing a grim milestone that is 300,000 deaths in the U.S. due to COVID-19. Here in Massachusetts, rates of community spread are still worryingly high, and several municipal leaders have decided to roll back reopening in their own cities further than what Gov. Charlie Baker's administration laid out. Some mayors are also calling for a relief aid package that would soften the blow of rolling back reopening on business owners and employees. Mayor Paul Brodeur of Melrose was one of several co-authors to write an op-ed in CommonWealth Magazine last week emphasizing the importance of restrictions and state and federal aid. He stopped by The Horse Race to talk through some of those points. -- It's never too early to look ahead to 2022, and this week saw the first announcement of someone considering a run for Charlie Baker's seat. Danielle Allen, a Harvard Professor, announced she's launched an exploratory committee to run as a Democrat. Baker may even have a primary challenger if former Republican state Senator Geoff Diehl runs, which, according to Stephanie, is a possibility.

Episode 160: Vax to the Future Dec 09, 2020

Show notes

12/9/20-- In keeping with baseless election fraud lawsuits happening around the country, Massachusetts political hopefuls have decided to join in the fun. A handful of unsuccessful GOP candidates for Congress and state office in Massachusetts are asking that a federal court overturn the 2020 election results in the state. The claim is that mail-in voting is unconstitutional, but the plaintiffs are not likely to be successful. Suits like these have already been shut down elsewhere in the country, and, Jenn points out, "The biggest hurdle they’re facing right now might just be that they they filed so late. They filed in December so the judge is very very unlikely to suddenly rule that we should throw out an election that happened in November.” -- This week brings sad and exciting news for Massachusetts. Unfortunately, the rates of COVID-19 infections are peaking, with wastewater data showing more community infections than we had in April. And while this week Gov. Charlie Baker announced rollbacks to the reopening plan, bringing the state to Phase 3, Step 1, the details of that plan have public health experts in the state pushing back on Baker. Dr. Ashish Jha, once a supporter of Baker's handling of the crisis, published a series of tweets condemning the governor's lack of more drastic action. In brighter news, though, the governor did also roll out the plan for vaccine dissemination. The plan estimates the vaccine to be available to the general public in April to May. -- A new poll out from the Museum of Science and The MassINC Polling Group finds a vast majority of Massachusetts residents will take the vaccine, which is good news from a public health standpoint. There are, however, differences among demographic groups when it comes to skepticism around the vaccine and *when* they will be willing to take it. It is often wealthy, white groups who are the most likely to take the vaccine immediately after it becomes available to them. President of the Museum of Science Tim Ritchie stops by The Horse Race to talk about the implications of these breakdowns and what can be done to build up public trust in the scientific community.

Episode 159: T Cut or Not T Cut? Dec 03, 2020

Show notes

12/3/20-- Steve and Jenn are back in the bunker after an atypical (but very 2020) Thanksgiving celebration. After a quick excoriation of the cast of characters on The Bachelorette, the hosts transition to a development on the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Kimberly Budd was sworn in Monday as chief justice of the SJC, succeeding the late chief justice Ralph Gants. This makes her the first Black woman to lead the high court. Justice Dalila Wendlandt was confirmed as the first Latina justice on the Supreme Judicial Court. The composition of the state’s highest court looks to be historically diverse, with three jurists of color on the bench for the first time in its 328-year history. -- Other state developments include the movement of a police reform bill. After months of negotiation, the Massachusetts House and Senate sent a compromise bill to Governor Baker's desk for revision this week. MassLive reporter stopped by The Horse Race this week to walk through the many elements of the bill she describes as "massive." Central tenets include a ban on no-knock warrants when children and people 65 years old and older are home, a ban on facial recognition for government officials and agencies excluding the RMV, and the creation of a Police Officer Standards and Training system and database on officers, among others. -- The MassINC Polling Group released the results of a poll Wednesday that asked Massachusetts residents about proposed MBTA service cuts. In short, residents largely don't approve of the proposed cuts. About two-thirds of them oppose system-wide service cuts, and a roughly similar proportion would rather the State Legislature give the transit agency more funding to close its budget gap. President of The MassINC Polling Group and Horse Race host-turned-guest Tenacious Titan of Transportation Tracking, Steve Koczela runs through the numbers.

Episode 158: Talking Turkey Nov 25, 2020

Show notes

11/25/20-- Happy Thanksgiving Horse Race listeners! Get ready to talk turkey (and Jell-O?), but first, some #mapoli news. Former Secretary of State and Senator from Massachusetts John Kerry was tapped to serve as a special presidential envoy for climate for the Biden administration. “I’ve been kind of surprised at how little arguing there’s been about the Biden cabinet so far,” Stephanie Murray says. “His choices aren’t big leaders on the progressive side of the party, but progressives have expressed support for them.” Steve points out this is a very traditional selection of cabinet picks, contrasting from the current makeup of the Trump administration, as Jenn describes, “a totally bonkers array of picks for people to be in charge of anything.” Later, MassINC Polling Group Research Director Rich Parr stops by the virtual bunker this week to share some interesting trends he noticed in comparing statewide voting data from 2016 and 2020. While most of the state went deeper blue in 2020, and Biden received more votes than Hillary Clinton, there were a few places where this wasn't the case, and where Trump still lost, but where he got a higher percentage of the vote than in 2016. Those places are cities: Boston, Fall River, New Bedford, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lowell, Worcester, Springfield and Holyoke, cities that have a significant Latino population, Rich says. "That tracks with something that people have been seeing in the county results nationally." And to end on a festive note without excluding Steve's favorite topic (polling), the hosts talk turkey. The first comes from Dynata and looks at who plans to gather and with how many other people for Thanksgiving. Jenn points out that the Cape is expecting lots of people to gather together for the holiday, and the region is also experiencing relatively high infection rates. Broken down by political party, the people most likely to eat Thanksgiving dinner with people outside their household are members of the Libertarian party, followed by Green Party members, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. As far as what Americans eat on Thanksgiving, the meals vary region to region. While New Englanders eat a surprising amount of fruit salad, the Midwest criminally consume, among other things, chicken and Jell-O on Thanksgiving. Our Midwestern representative Steve Koczela had no comment on the matter.

Episode 157: The Kids Are Not Alright Nov 19, 2020

Show notes

11/19/20-- With just a couple months until President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration, several #MApoli members are being eyed as potential cabinet members of his administration. Stephanie has been cataloging them for the Politico Massachusetts Playbook, and she's got her eye particularly trained on Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, who is being pushed for Labor Secretary by the president of the AFL-CIO. Other potential Massachusetts-based picks include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Attorney General Maura Healey, Gov. Charlie Baker, and Congressman Stephen Lynch. -- A new survey out from The MassINC Polling Group finds parents of K-12 students in Massachusetts anticipate negative impacts on their children due to a tumultuous start of the school year. One of the first questions Steve wanted the poll to answer was simply, how are students being taught? It turns out, there's an even split between all remote and hybrid learning (46% each), while just 11% of students are attending school in person all the time. There are significant demographic breakdowns in each of those categories, Steve explains. Black, Latino, and lower-income parents are far more likely to report fully remote school. Meanwhile, Catholic, private school, and high-income parents are more likely to have children attending school in-person. Overall, around half (52%) of parents say the current school year is having a negative impact on their child in terms of academics. Similar numbers say the same of mental / emotional health as well as social / behavioral skills (both 49% negative). -- A report from the Massachusetts division of the U.S. Department of Justice alleges that conditions at the Massachusetts Department of Correction are unconstitutional. As Jenn explains, the MDOC could be in violation of the 8th Amendment, which prohibits cruel and unusual punishment, if there was "deliberate indifference” to the known risk of self harm and suicide by inmates. The DOJ argues that a combination of the housing conditions and issues with those who are supposed to be tasked with monitoring and safekeeping prisoners with serious mental health issues created an extremely unsafe situation. The report recommends the DOC improve their monitoring of prisoners on mental health watch. The DOC has less than 50 days to act. Otherwise, the DOJ can sue the state.

BONUS Episode: Young adults weather the worst of COVID-19’s mental health burden Nov 11, 2020

Show notes

11/11/20--The hosts are off this week so please enjoy a BONUS episode of The Horse Race. It is an exploration of the rise in young adults battling mental health impacts of COVID-19, with a #MAPoli angle, of course.

Episode 156: Down for the Count Nov 05, 2020

Show notes

11/4/20-- What was meant to be a post-election podcast this week is in fact not. As we release this on Wednesday evening, there are still ballots left to count and states that are too early to call. It's not yet clear who our president will be, nor which party will control the Senate. As states scramble to count ballots, The Trump administration said it has filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan to halt the counting of ballots there. As Jenn explains, “Depending on the arguments [the Trump administration is] trying to make, they might be trying to argue for ballot counting in some states and no ballot counting in other states, so judges are probably going to be confused about this." Still, she says, it might end up getting kicked all the way up to the Supreme Court anyway, where now 6 conservative justices now sit. Recall that just weeks ago, Amy Coney Barrett declined to commit to recusing herself in this very instance of disputed election results. Stephanie chimes in, noting that. “Counting votes and access to voting, a democratic issue, has become really partisan.” Steve takes it one step further. The GOP's attempts to stymie the momentum of mail-in ballots, which tend to skew democratic, like trying to slow the mail down, preventing counting until Election Day, and now straight-up not counting ballots that came in is “utterly outrageous, anti-democratic, and un-American," he says. Here in Massachusetts, the general election for the U.S. Senate seat was not a close one. Incumbent Ed Markey bested GOP challenger Kevin O’Connor with 67% of the vote compared to O'Connor's 33% with two thirds of precincts reporting, according to the AP. Jake Auchincloss defeated his Republican challenger Julie Hall to fill the District 4 U.S. House of Reps seat vacated by Joe Kennedy III. All the remaining members of the Massachusetts delegation kept their spots. And on Beacon Hill, Democrats maintain their supermajority in the legislature. Massachusetts voters decided on two ballot questions this election. Question 1, a "Right to Repair" law passed easily by a 3-to-1 margin. Unofficial results showed voters backing that measure 75 percent to 25 percent with about 83 percent of precincts reporting. With a roughly $50 million price tag, this is the most expensive ballot question campaign in MA history. A majority of Massachusetts voters chose ‘no’ on Question 2, meaning ranked-choice voting will not appear in elections in 2022. Stephanie says this loss was frustrating to progressive democrats, especially since the Yes on 2 campaign was much more active than the No on 2 campaign, who Steve describes as “basically an OCPF filing and a Twitter account.” Pollsters are getting beaten up on Twitter this election season much like 2016. Steve points out that while a lot is still unknown to determine polls' accuracy, "At some point, we pollsters have to acknowledge this is a problem. People are using things that we’re saying that aren’t correct and taking action based on that, so it’s having consequences.”

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