The Economic Club of Florida podcast

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Episode 16: Blackstone’s Byron Wien Jan 23, 2021

Show notes

“The 10 Surprises of 2021” Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of the Blackstone Private Wealth Solutions group discusses events and surprises that he sees happening in the financial markets and the U.S. economy in the New Year, before a January 19, 2021 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

For the past 36 years, Byron Wien has been taking a look into the future of the financial markets and the social and political trends that impact them, to help guide his clients’ investments. He is recognized as one of the very top investment strategists in the U.S. and in 2006 was named as one of the sixteen most influential people on Wall Street by New York Magazine.

Wien told the Club that his “10 Surprises” are not predictions, rather events that have a better than 50% chance of taking place in his estimation. “I do this to stretch my own thinking and hopefully yours,” he told Club members. He noted that he missed the biggest surprise of all in 2020 – the coronavirus pandemic – but that it still turned out not to be as bad a year as he feared, referencing a good number of events he got right.

Byron Wien’s “Top 10 Surprises for 2021” Iist, as he explained them:

Donald Trump will create a television program titled “The Chief” to interview CEOs and heads of state with similar management styles as his own. (Wien noted that his list came out on January 4, 2021 and this predication “is not appropriate now” given the January 6 siege of the U.S. Capitol.)

The top diplomatic priority for President Biden will be to try to establish a harmonious relationship with China, given it will one day surpass the U.S. as the largest economy in the world.

The U.S. will be back to some form of normal activity by Memorial Day, including concerts and the Olympics, so long as COVID-19 vaccine distribution and acceptance reaches one-million shots per day.

The Justice Department will ease-up on Google and Facebook, concluding the companies’ acquisition efforts are not reducing the number of social media start-ups.

The U.S. economy will develop momentum of its own, with unemployment falling from 6% to 5%.

The Federal Reserve Bank and the administration will openly embrace modern monetary theory, including printing more money to stimulate economic activity, so long as inflation is modest.

The price of world oil will rise to $65 per barrel.

The S&P 500 will reach 4,500 points this year, following a correction in the first-half of the year.

There will be greater inflation, but it won’t be serious, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing to 2%.

The value of the U.S. dollar will rise as financial markets and the economy recover, driven by investment in U.S. companies.

Wien revealed some “also ran” surprises that weren’t quite certain enough to make his list. He also discussed his concern on the imbalance of attention paid to fiscal policy vs. monetary policy, and his long-term concern about increased U.S. government debt and its impact on interest rates and inflation.

Questions from Club members led to discussion on increased minimum wage recently passed in Florida and a number of other states and the income inequality gap between the “haves and have-nots.” “This is one of the most serious problems we’re facing in the United States,” Wien said, noting the gap increased further during the coronavirus pandemic. He offered various solutions needed to fix income inequality in the U.S.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Byron Wien Biography

Blackstone

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 1/19/2020. © Copyright 2021 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 15: Miami Dade College President Madeline Pumariega Jan 08, 2021

Show notes

“The Role of Higher Education in Economic Recovery” Miami Dade College President Madeline Pumariega discusses the importance of higher education in Florida, the role that it plays in economic development, and how it has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, before a December 16, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

Madeline Pumariega is the new President of Miami Dade College, the largest in the U.S. She previously served as chancellor of the Florida College System, comprised of 28 colleges with nearly 800,000 students. She told the Club that Florida’s goal of becoming number one in workforce by 2030 is a key to the state’s future success. Reaching that top spot is about educational attainment. “Employers ask, ‘Can I move to Florida and get the workers I need and be able to grow?’” Pumariega said. While acknowledging that a four-year degree may not be for everyone, she said that everyone needs some post-high school credential to compete, “especially if Florida is to compete for regional business headquarters and job growth.”

Pumariega’s address was full of performance metrics used to measure the state’s growing educational success. To have a talented and balanced workforce, she told the Club, requires closing the equity gap. At Tallahassee Community College, where she is finishing her service this month as executive vice president and provost, she noted the white student graduation rate is 51%, well above the 35% national average. But those students in poverty have a 19% graduation rate.

She also discussed private educational companies - the “Uber of education” - that are partnering with public colleges in that task and will be the “wave of the future with personalized instruction.” “Institutions today, not only business but higher education, have to be informed by data and strategy. Being a life-long learner means you are continually focused on your trade because everything that we know today, changes tomorrow,” she told Club members.

Pumariega also addressed the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on instructional practices and learning. She noted that colleges have always helped in economic recoveries and this recovery from COVID-19 will require being more targeted and strategic. “Those governments and communities who get it right will recover more quickly. Working with community colleges will help employers and employees get their jobs back and keep their jobs,” she said.

Pumariega is a product of the college system herself, having begun her academic career as a student at Miami Dade College and later returning as an administrator and one of its campus presidents. Today, she’s still learning, pursuing a doctoral degree in higher education.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Madeline Pumariega Biography

Madeline Pumariega PowerPoint

Miami Dade College

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 12/16/2020. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 14: CAPTRUST Co-Founder & CEO Fielding Miller Jan 07, 2021

Show notes

“The Emerging Financial Industry Giant – Independent Financial Advisory Firms” CAPTRUST Co-Founder & CEO Fielding Miller explains how independent firms are changing the financial advice industry and their impact to the economy, before a December 2, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

CAPTRUST is an independent Financial Advisory Firm, meaning it largely offers fee-based advice only, as compared to traditional investment management firms, including brokers, who do the actual investing through products that they have a stake in. Miller explained why that difference is important – and why the concept has caught on so successfully. “If you’re a brokerage firm or an asset manager, all you really have to offer are the proprietary products that your company provides, so that cannot be the best solution for anyone and everyone,” he said.

When Miller started the firm 23 years ago in Raleigh, North Carolina he said the fee-based fiduciary model didn’t really exist and represented maybe half a percent of the revenue generated in the financial advisory industry. Today, Registered Investment Advisors (RIA) such as himself have collectively surpassed the assets under management of the major traditional brokerage firms. CAPTRUST now has $425 billion in client assets with 750 employees in 50 offices across the country and is one of the nation’s largest independent advisory firms. In fact, it’s been ranked the number one independent advisory firm in the U.S. by Financial Advisor Magazine. “The best lesson I’ve learned is failure,” he told Club members.

Miller has a great entrepreneurial story to tell that started in 1986. He decided to get into the investment advisory business after a series of unexpected events left him with five mortgages and a pregnant wife whose company had just closed, leaving him the sole family provider on a $16,000 salaried banking job. He started with a traditional firm and shared with the Club some of the inherent conflicts of interest he says exist within brokerage firms. “RIAs are different from traditional investment firms because we serve as fiduciaries. We have to put our client’s interest first,” he said.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Miller explained that the financial advice industry today is growing rapidly but the supply of advisors is shrinking, with those over age 65 outnumbering those under 35 by nearly two-to-one. “With the growing number of baby boomers retiring, many with underfunded retirement plans and little investment education, there is a big need for help,” he said. Likewise, the transfer of wealth from baby boomers passing along their assets to millennial offspring, 77% of whom have no financial advisors themselves, “is creating a gold rush of firms trying to fill those needs,” he said. “That’s an estimated $26 trillion in assets in play over the next 10-20 years.”

Although the bulk of his business is providing investment advice to retirement and pension funds, CAPTRUST has a burgeoning endowment and foundation side of the business. Notable Florida client organizations include the Barbara Bush Foundation, Associated Industries of Florida, and the Florida Sheriffs Youth Ranches. The firm also manages retirement investments for the University of South Florida and other major universities.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Fielding Miller Biography

CAPTRUST

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 12/2/2020. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 13: Former U.S. Ambassador to Italy Ron Spogli Jan 07, 2021

Show notes

“75 Years After Victory in Europe: The EU, Brexit, and the U.S.” Former U.S. Ambassador to Italy and the Republic of San Marino, Ron Spogli, shares his views on the impact to the U.S. of Britain’s exit from the European Union, before a November 17, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

In 2016, Britons voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union (EU). That exit, known as “Brexit” will finally happen in 2021. Ron Spogli served as the U.S. Ambassador to Italy from 2005-2009. He shared with the Club the history of how the United Kingdom came to the Brexit decision to leave the EU, why it was inevitable, and why it’s of great significance to both the U.K., the E.U., and the United States.

“This is a big deal and something we should all care about,” said Ambassador Spogli. “Some exit from the EU was inevitable and in my opinion, long overdue.” He pointed to Britain’s refusal over the years as an EU member to adopt a common currency and the free borders that characterized the EU. And over recent years, the focus has become more of attaining a political union of countries, rather than just an economic union for trade purposes. “So Brexit is more of an evolutionary development, not a revolutionary event,” said Ambassador Spogli. “It’s an enormous blow to the EU to lose its second-largest member and the EU need this to be painful for the UK because they need to show others how painful it is.”

Ambassador Spogli also discussed how Brexit is supposed to work and its expected economic and non-economic impacts, as well as the future of the E.U. beyond Brexit. Unresolved issues at this time include future trade with Britain and the border crossing between Ireland and the UK. “For the U.K. it’s charting a new course, one that will be less Euro-centric and arguably more transatlantic-centric in terms of its relationship with the United States of America,” he said.

Spogli is Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of Freeman Spogli & Company, one of the leading middle market private equity investors in the country. He has served on the board of directors of over twenty companies and organizations that do business around the globe. As for what Europe is going to do going forward? “I believe a united Europe is in the best interest of Europe and the U.S., especially as Russia is more of a significant risk to Europe today that it was at the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Ron Spogli Biography

Freeman Spogli & Co.

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 11/17/2020. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 12: LogMeIn President & CEO Bill Wagner Jan 07, 2021

Show notes

“The Future of Work: How LogMeIn is Navigating the Changing Landscape” LogMeIn President & CEO Bill Wagner explains his company’s remote meeting technology that’s behind popular videoconferencing apps, and how remote work is changing our lives and business practices in many ways, before a November 4, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

Chances are that you worked from home in 2020. That’s likely to continue, or at least the option to do so, regardless of how fast the coronavirus pandemic passes in 2021. Bill Wagner should know. He’s the President and CEO of LogMeIn, providers of the remote meeting technology behind many of the popular videoconferencing apps we now use routinely.

Remote work is changing our lives and business practices in many ways. Wagner shared with the Club how the very remote work environment that his Boston-based software company enables its users to enjoy, has led his own company’s employees to become “remote-centric.”

Wagner said only 7% of his employees were full-time remote workers before the pandemic. By the third week of March 2020, 100% of them were remote, something that will remain that way at least through the end of April 2021. An employee survey revealed that post-pandemic, only 5% want to be in the office five days a week, 30% want the option of remote-only, and 37% want the option of mixing both.

What’s even more interesting is the general survey of its customers that LogMeIn conducted. Wagner said that 77% of worldwide businesses are using flexible work schedules, with increased employee well-being and productivity from remote work. The survey found that remote workers are 13% more productive, work longer hours but are happier doing so, take fewer sick days, and employee retention is 50% higher. It also calculated remote work will eliminate 360 hours of commuting in a year on average, too.

As of today’s address, going on nine months into the pandemic, some companies have employees working from home and some others have a hybrid matrix of remote and in-office work. But there are others who are realizing they just don’t need the office space and overhead. What Bill Wagner is talking about is really the potential “workplace of tomorrow” that in essence he says, has already arrived.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Bill Wagner Biography

LogMeIn Inc.

Bill Wagner Presentation

LogMeIn’s Move to a Remote-Centric Company

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 11/4/2020. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 11: Florida A&M University President Dr. Larry Robinson Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

“The Importance and Impact of Florida A&M University and HBCU’s” Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University President Dr. Larry Robinson explains how the school set a record in research funding and new patents last year, and the link between research innovation and economic development in Florida, before an October 27, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

U.S. News and World Report in September 2020 ranked Florida A&M number one for the second year in a row among public HBCU’s (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) in the country. The magazine also ranked the school 20th in social mobility of students.

“To me, this is a true measure of the institution’s impact on otherwise bright students who come to us with significant economic challenges but leave us with the prospects of gainful employment and/or being well-prepared to pursue post-baccalaureate graduate and professional educational opportunities,” said Dr. Robinson. About one in three students are the first generation in their family to attend college.

Over the past decade, Florida A&M University or FAMU, as it’s also known, has been making an accelerated impact on Florida’s economy, too. In 2019, the school set a record of $60 million in extra research funding and a record number of new patents as well. As part of FAMU’s new strategic plan, Dr. Robinson said FAMU is increasing its partnerships with the private sector, impacting economic development. These include:

$1.5 million from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to develop its own COVID-19 virus testing laboratory to coordinate with other Florida HBCUs;

Another $1.5 million donation of COVID-19 diagnostic equipment, test kits, and supplies from Thermo Fisher Scientific Company;

A 25-year land lease at an average $1 million a year to Duke Energy for a future 74.9 megawatt solar electricity farm in Brooksville;

The Hemp Project, a partnership with two private companies to help plant and cultivate six varieties of hemp plant for commercial applications;

$100,000 in scholarships and debt payments as part of a $1 million Bank of America jobs initiative partnership;

Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits’ Social Injustice and Racial Inequality Endowed Scholarship Fund that will fund four scholarships a year for five years;

In his address, Dr. Robinson noted additional significant public funding to date as well. Florida A&M has received $1.5 million from the U.S. Department of Energy to the Engineering College to increase the diversity of students enrolled in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) programs. The school has also been making capital improvements on campus, including the recently opened 700-bed FAMU Towers residence hall, provided by HBCU-designated federal funds. The local Intergovernmental Blueprint agency recently awarded $10 million for Bragg Stadium renovations. The school’s Medical Marijuana Education Research Initiative is funded through the state’s medical marijuana program.

In all, Dr. Robinson said FAMU has generated 135,000 jobs and had a nearly $15 billion economic impact locally in Tallahassee, Florida and regionally.

“Despite the historical challenges that we’ve had and current challenges of being under-resourced, the impacts of HBCUs and FAMU in every area of our society is really incredible…and your support and leadership in providing advocacy on behalf of HBCUs and FAMU will allow us to continue to do this great work,” Dr. Robinson told The Economic Club of Florida members.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Dr. Larry Robinson Biography

Florida A&M University

United Negro College Fund HBCU Impact Report

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 10/27/20. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 10: President Donald J. Trump Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

“Economic Issues in the Upcoming 2020 Election” President Donald J. Trump, in his re-election bid against Joe Biden, discusses his economic agenda before an October 14, 2020 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

President Trump addressed the Club in a virtual livestreaming discussion of economic issues that featured a gathering of Club members participating in-person via a projection screen system at The Governors Club in Tallahassee and other members remotely from their homes and offices. The nonpartisan club is one of six economic clubs in the country that participated in this live event, in which both presidential candidates were invited to appear separately to address economic issues of concern in the upcoming November 3 election. Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign had not yet confirmed his future appearance.

The President said the choice in this election was between historic economic growth and prosperity versus a depression with steep poverty. He warned that if he’s not re-elected, that China will own the United States. “Americans should be trusted with the date, facts, and truth on the virus,” he said.

The President said he would build on his existing economic policies that he noted have resulted in 6.6 million people being taken out of poverty, seven million jobs created, and in the first three years, an increase in real income of $6,000 for the typical family. He referenced Florida’s policy under Governor DeSantis to import medicines from Canada as a way to lower prescription drug costs for those on Medicaid. “As far as purchasing drugs from other countries until everything else kicks in, Canada pays 50% what we pay. I’ve given governors permission to go to Canada and buy drugs directly from Canada, saving as an example, Ron DeSantis and the state of Florida, approximately 50% and more on the purchase of drugs.”

During his 45-minute virtual visit, the President took questions, among them, from Club Chair Cindy O’Connell, who asked about the importance of infrastructure spending. The President said improving the country’s infrastructure is a big part of his economic plan. “We’re improving our plan and it will be out soon,” said the President, noting it includes finishing the U.S. border wall with Mexico as part of needed national security measures. He also told O’Connell that taxpayers in Florida and around the country will be better off with him remaining as President. “Well, the big thing is the taxes are much lower…we’ll continue to be low taxes and low regulation. I’m in favor of regulation but ones that take a year or maybe two for approval, not 21 years.”

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Donald Trump Biography

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 10/14/20. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 9: U.S. Export-Import Bank Chief Kimberly Reed Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

“The Export-Import Bank & How Florida Benefits” Kimberly Reed, President and Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States explains the bank’s role in promoting commerce and leveling the playing field with China on trade, before an October 7, 2020 luncheon meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), is a little known part of the Executive Branch of our federal government to most citizens, but one that plays an important role in commerce and our economy. The Bank promotes and supports American jobs by providing competitive and necessary export credit to support sales of U.S. goods and services to international buyers. President and Chairman Kimberly Reed told the Club that EXIM can level the global playing field for U.S. exporters when they compete against foreign companies that receive support from their governments.

“And so if it’s China that’s trying to crowd-out the United States, we now have a new law that President Trump signed in December 2019 that basically allows EXIM to help a company match the offer that China is offering a foreign purchaser, and we want the world to pick us.”

EXIM also contributes to U.S. economic growth by helping to create and sustain hundreds of thousands of jobs in exporting businesses and their supply chains across the United States. In recent years, approximately 90% of the total number of the agency’s authorizations has directly supported small businesses. “Last year, we supported the largest deal in EXIM’s history, a $5 billion credit to help with exports to Mozambique, Africa,” said Reed.

EXIM’s new mandate includes helping key industries important to Florida, including bio-medical sciences, wireless communications, and renewable energy. During her address, Reed awarded the “Exporter of the Year” award to a representative from Greenfield World Trade, a Fort Lauderdale commercial foodservice equipment company, for its outstanding contributions to fulfilling EXIM’s mission of supporting American jobs by facilitating U.S. exports.

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Kimberly Reed Biography

Export-Import Bank of the United States

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 10/7/20. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 8: Cybersecurity expert Jonathan Kilpatrick Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

“Cybersecurity: Hacks, Defenses and Foreign Interference” Military and corporate cybersecurity risk expert Jonathan Kilpatrick explains why the threat is growing and the practical ways we can prevent, detect, and defend against the projected $6 trillion cybercrime industry, before a September 30, 2020 luncheon meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

(Coming Soon)

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Jonathan Kilpatrick Biography

Trulight Consulting

Cyber Security is like full contact Chess

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 9/30/20. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

Episode 7: Tyndall Air Force Base Engineer Brian Stahl Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

“Rebuilding Tyndall Air Force Base after Hurricane Michael Devastation” Brian Stahl, Deputy Base Civil Engineer at Tyndall Air Force Base, discusses the massive multi-billion dollar rebuilding underway after living through the direct hit of a Category 5 Hurricane Michael, before an August 26, 2020 luncheon meeting of The Economic Club of Florida.

Show Notes

(Coming Soon)

Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode

Brian Stahl Biography

Brian Stahl PowerPoint Presentation

Faces of Tyndall: 325th Civil Engineer Squadron

Tyndall Air Force Base

The Economic Club of Florida podcast, provides an extended platform for discussion to educate, engage, and empower citizens on important economic, political, and social issues. Based in Tallahassee, Florida, the Club has featured distinguished speakers on engaging topics of national importance since 1977. To learn more, including how to become a member, visit www.Economic-Club.com or call 850-906-9226 or email mail@economic-club.com. Date of recording 8/26/20. © Copyright 2020 The Economic Club of Florida, All Rights Reserved

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