The Dividend Cafe

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Monday - February 23, 2026 Feb 23, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X

Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.

AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.

Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.

Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.

Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.

00:00 Snowed In Intro

01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot

03:24 AI Capex Reality Check

04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

06:33 Section 122 Workaround

08:06 Other Tariff Pathways

09:40 Economic Impact Estimates

10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout

12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts

15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Lower Inflation Hurts Feb 20, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tNvJGE

David Bahnsen opens Dividend Cafe after a volatile week marked by a weaker-than-expected GDP report and a Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump’s tariff rationale under the Economic Emergency Act (with a deeper tariff discussion coming Monday). His core thesis: disinflation is likely in 2026—and it may not feel positive.

He clarifies the difference between inflation (rising prices), disinflation (slower price increases), and deflation (falling prices). Bond markets are signaling softer expectations, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.07% and five-year inflation breakevens around 2.4%, suggesting modest real growth ahead.

Recent GDP registered about 1.4% annualized, distorted in part by a government shutdown, while core PCE inflation is roughly 3% year-over-year versus 2.9% a year ago. Bahnsen expects services-driven disinflation, particularly as rent measures catch up to real-time data. However, that may not improve affordability given tight housing inventory and a frozen resale market.

He also warns that business investment is overly concentrated in AI and data centers—echoing the fracking-era CapEx surge—while broader investment remains subdued. Risks to growth include a weak labor market with low hiring, a personal saving rate near 3.4% (raising the chance tax refunds rebuild savings instead of fuel spending), and muted bank lending despite lower rates.

00:00 A wild news week

01:48 Cutting through economic spin

03:23 Why 2026 disinflation may disappoint

04:36 Bond market signals

07:16 GDP and data distortions

10:49 Services-led disinflation

14:05 Concentrated CapEx risk

16:38 Labor, savings, and lending

20:09 Tariffs and demand drag

22:24 What to watch next

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - February 19, 2026 Feb 19, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group recaps a modest down day in markets—Dow down 267 points, S&P 500 down 0.25%, and Nasdaq down 0.33%—while noting the market remains up on the week. The 10-year yield edged down to about 4.07% amid expectations that a new Fed chair in May could eventually bring short-term rate cuts. He discusses rising Middle East tensions and increased U.S. presence tied to Iran, which has helped push crude higher (about 6% over two days; up ~15% YTD), but argues energy’s strong performance is primarily driven by supply/demand fundamentals and well-run businesses, with the sector up ~23% YTD and 95% of names above their 200-day moving average. He highlights leadership from defensives like energy, industrials, staples, and materials—often a late-cycle signal—while technology and communication services lag, with only ~40% of names above their 200-day averages; he notes some software valuations have compressed from mid-30s multiples to low-20s. Economic updates include better-than-expected initial jobless claims (206k vs 220k), a wider December trade deficit (over $70B vs ~56B expected), a stronger Philly Fed manufacturing reading, and weaker pending home sales. He closes by answering a question on non-GAAP vs GAAP P/E ratios, explaining non-GAAP adjusts for one-time items to estimate normalized earnings, while cautioning that recurring “anomalies” can make non-GAAP misleading and require careful analysis.

00:00 Market Close Recap: Indexes Dip, Rates Steady

00:52 Energy Sector Strength: Oil Headlines vs Real Fundamentals

02:08 Sector Rotation & Valuations: Defensives Lead, Tech Lags

03:30 Economic Data Roundup: Jobs, Trade, Manufacturing, Housing

04:07 Viewer Q&A: Non-GAAP vs GAAP P/E Ratios Explained

05:28 Wrap-Up & Weekend Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - February 18, 2026 Feb 18, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe provides a broad market update with all three major stock indices higher (Nasdaq up about 0.75%, S&P 500 up about 0.5%, and Dow up about 0.25%) while interest rates rose slightly, with the 10-year yield up three basis points. He reviews several economic releases, including January FOMC minutes that conveyed a more hawkish tone as inflation was described as slower to return to the 2% target, January industrial production that beat expectations (0.7% vs. 0.4%), and December durable goods orders that fell 1.4% but were better than consensus, with underlying measures stronger (excluding transportation up 0.9%, and core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft up about 0.67%, roughly double expectations). He notes housing starts and building permits were slightly better than expected but characterizes housing as still stuck due to interest rates, tax law changes, and reduced post-COVID mobility.

00:00 Market Snapshot: Stocks Up, Yields Higher

00:35 Key Economic Releases: Fed Minutes, Production & Durable Goods

01:41 Why Durable Goods Matter: Business Confidence & Capex Signals

02:40 Housing Starts & Permits: Still Stuck in a Range

03:10 Tariffs and GDP Explained: Net Exports, Double-Counting, and Reality

04:47 What’s Next This Week: PCE, GDP, PMIs & Consumer Sentiment

05:12 Wrap-Up: Broadly Positive Day + Q&A Invitation

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

AI Productivity and Bounced Checks Feb 13, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cpsVcz

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and economic productivity. Speaking from Orlando, Florida, David examines the potential and vulnerabilities of AI as an investment theme. He highlights the need for a deeper understanding of AI's impact on productivity and critiques the current optimism surrounding AI investments. David reflects on past tech investment bubbles, specifically the dot-com era, to draw parallels with the present AI investment climate. Emphasizing the importance of prudent judgment and strategic planning, he cautions against overestimating the immediate economic benefits of AI while advocating for a long-term, judicious approach to AI-driven technology.

00:00 Introduction and Conference Update

00:44 AI Investment Themes and Vulnerabilities

05:00 Economic Productivity and AI

08:32 Studies and Reports on AI Productivity

11:35 Historical Parallels: AI and the Dotcom Bubble

14:58 Investment Strategies and Risks

19:07 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - February 12, 2026 Feb 12, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the day's market reversal, with significant drops in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq. He highlights the ongoing rotation and decline in tech stocks, and notes falling long-term yields. Key economic updates include initial jobless claims and a notable drop in existing home sales. Szytel explores themes such as positive economic growth, new Federal Reserve leadership, and AI productivity growth. He delves into S&P earnings expectations, margin analysis, and the impact of lower inflation on real sales growth. Finally, he addresses a question about political influences on Fed leadership, emphasizing the qualifications and impartiality of the candidate in question.

00:00 Market Reversal and Daily Performance

01:08 Economic Indicators and Market Reactions

01:36 Sector Analysis and Earnings Expectations

02:38 Volatility and Market Dynamics

02:58 Earnings Margins and Sector Disparities

03:58 Inflation Impact and CPI Anticipation

04:24 Political Influence on Fed Decisions

05:26 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - February 11, 2026 Feb 11, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on a mixed market day with little movement in the indices. The DOW dropped by 66 points, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq saw a slight decrease. Bond yields rose following a strong non-farm payroll report, which showed 130,000 new jobs against an expected 55,000, led by the healthcare sector. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.3%, while hourly wages grew by 0.4% for January, totaling a 3.7% year-over-year increase. Labor force participation ticked up to 62.5%. Szytel addresses questions about inflation perceptions versus reported CPI, explaining the difference between disinflation and deflation. He concludes with a reminder that good news should be seen positively and notes market reactions to Federal Reserve rate expectations.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:27 Employment Report Insights

01:25 Labor Force Participation Trends

04:00 Inflation and Personal Experience

05:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - February 10, 2026 Feb 10, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel covers the market performance on February 10th, highlighting mixed results with slight gains in the DOW and declines in the S&P and NASDAQ. He discusses significant moves in the bond market, including a drop in 10-year Treasury rates, and comments on the anticipated impacts of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. Szytel also reviews economic data, noting a lower-than-expected Small Businesses Optimism Survey and flat retail sales for December. He touches on the potential effects of upcoming CPI data and AI-related market volatility, projecting that AI will be a transformative technology despite the current volatility in its investment landscape.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:34 Bond Market Movements

01:29 Economic Data Insights

02:37 Upcoming CPI Report

04:00 AI Volatility Discussion

05:06 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - February 9, 2026 Feb 09, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/460ffB0

In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, we provide a recap of a relatively quiet market day following a highly eventful week. We discuss the significance of the DOW closing above 50,000 points for the second time, the major movements within defensive and software sectors, and the strong performance of the Japanese Nikkei index. Key insights include an analysis of market trends, software sector valuation changes, and economic impacts on smaller businesses. Additionally, we touch on the implications of quantitative easing and mortgage rate trends. The episode closes with a nod to recent sports headlines, including the Seattle Seahawks' Super Bowl victory and Pacifica Christian's basketball success. Tune in for a detailed breakdown of these topics and more.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

00:16 Market Recap: A Boring Day After a Wild Week

01:01 Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh: A Deeper Dive

01:23 Monday Market Movements and Milestones

02:35 Historical Market Reflections

04:13 Sector Performance and Economic Indicators

05:23 Global Market Highlights: Japan's Surge

06:56 Super Bowl and Economic Insights

09:32 Quantitative Easing: A Critical Analysis

10:55 Oil Market Update and Fed Policy Speculations

13:03 Closing Remarks and Announcements

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

All About the Next Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Feb 06, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rzbhrg

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Donald Trump. Bahnsen explores the implications of this decision on monetary policy, sharing his optimistic view of Warsh’s potential impact. He delves into Warsh's background, his stance on key economic issues, and the anticipated effects of his policies on markets and investment strategies. Bahnsen underlines the significance of Warsh's experience, his reformist mindset, and how his pragmatic approach could lead to a reduction in the Federal Reserve's footprint in the economy.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

00:19 Kevin Warsh's Appointment as Fed Chair

03:42 Why Kevin Warsh is a Good Pick

05:06 Kevin Warsh's Monetary Policy Views

08:01 Implications for Interest Rates and QE

12:51 Market Signals and Fed Policy

18:19 Privatization of the Fed's Balance Sheet

24:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com