The Dividend Cafe

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Monday - March 9, 2026 Mar 09, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s

The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday.

00:00 Volatility Backdrop

00:54 Wild Market Reversal

01:47 Oil Spike Explained

04:10 Ignore The Noise

04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth

06:18 Backwardation Signals

07:42 War Timeline Shipping

09:57 Policy Risks Oil

10:42 Jobs Report Shock

12:33 Energy CPI Outlook

13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Iran, Oil, and Markets Mar 06, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH

From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding.

00:00 Welcome From Nashville

01:01 War And Investor Lens

02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility

06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty

09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation

11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas

15:09 Political Ripple Effects

18:16 What Investors Should Do

20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - March 5, 2026 Mar 05, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day with a broad selloff: the Dow fell 784 points after being down over 1,100 intraday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined modestly, with tech relatively stronger on AI-related earnings. Despite headlines tied to Iran, he notes markets are only slightly down overall and still focused on positive economic fundamentals. He highlights supportive data: initial jobless claims met expectations at 213, import prices rose less than expected, and productivity surged to 2.8% versus 1.8% expected (with prior quarter revised higher), though labor costs also rose 2.8%. He discusses whether AI may be contributing to productivity gains but wants more quarters of evidence. Addressing questions about Iran and U.S. debt, he contrasts it with Afghanistan’s 20-year, $2T ground war, emphasizes oil risk via the Strait of Hormuz, and says dollar impact depends on unknowns.

00:00 Market Volatility Recap

01:05 Staying Invested Amid Geopolitics

01:21 Economic Data Three Signals

01:54 AI And Productivity Debate

03:16 Client Question War And Debt

03:37 Afghanistan Comparison Costs

04:19 Oil Shock And Dollar Impact

05:17 Closing Thoughts And Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - March 4, 2026 Mar 04, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a rebound day in markets with broad gains (Dow +238, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%) amid headline-driven volatility tied to Iran and renewed tariff discussion. He notes Secretary Bessent’s comments on Section 122 potentially moving tariffs from 10% to 15%, which would still mean $65–$70B less in taxes than under IEPA, helping especially smaller and mid-sized businesses. Key market watchpoints are oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bond yields, which rose with higher energy and inflation expectations rather than signaling a flight to safety; the 10-year is around 4.07%. He reiterates a midterm outlook of Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. Economic data were strong, led by ISM services at 56.1, alongside services PMI at 51.7 and ADP private payrolls at 63K. He also addresses software stocks, viewing AI-driven selloffs as selective opportunity with potential margin benefits.

00:00 Market Rebound Recap

00:42 Tariffs Back in Focus

01:45 Iran Risks and Oil

02:41 Volatility and Bond Yields

03:49 Midterm Politics Update

04:27 Economic Data Rundown

05:33 AI and Software Stocks

06:47 Wrap Up and Tomorrow

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - March 3, 2026 Mar 03, 2026

Show notes

On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike

02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions

02:27 War Headlines and Market Context

03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS

03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility

04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data

04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy

05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook

06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - March 2, 2026 Mar 02, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm

In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility.

00:00 Monday Market Setup

00:51 What This Show Covers

02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover

03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle

04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios

06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm

08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals

10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty

11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is There a Private Markets Crash Stewing? Feb 27, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4u0yp3O

David argues there is growing, often uninformed media hysteria about private asset markets that affects everyone and conflates many separate issues into one negative narrative. David says the Dividend Cafe aims to deliver truth in a discernible, actionable way by parsing distinct “stories,” including AI’s potential impact on software firms and related loans, liquidity dynamics and loan quality in private direct lending, limited partners versus investors in private asset management companies, the implications of offering private-market investments to retail investors, and capital-markets “indigestion” from many sponsors trying to sell companies amid limited buyers. Bahnsen criticizes financial media for blending these topics to drive clicks and ratings, creating hype while obscuring important distinctions and actionable understanding.

00:00 Media Hysteria Setup

01:41 Why Nuance Matters

02:15 Ten Stories Not One

04:28 Media Incentives And Clicks

05:46 The Catchall Narrative

07:24 Closing Take On The Hype

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - February 26 Feb 26, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reviews a mixed Thursday market session with the Dow slightly up, the S&P 500 down about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.2%, highlighting value’s outperformance versus tech. He discusses Nvidia’s heavily anticipated earnings beat (including guidance) but notes the stock still fell, arguing expectations were priced in and that AI-related capex at big tech is already starting and will inevitably continue to slow from a record pace that has pushed Mag Seven free cash flow slightly negative; as free cash flow rebounds, he expects more shareholder returns via buybacks, acquisitions, and potential dividend growth. He then explains the Depository Trust Company (DTC) system created in 1973 to simplify securities ownership and transfers, addresses concerns about government seizure as unlikely, and cites MF Global’s 2011 misuse of client assets as an example of illegal but possible misconduct.

00:00 Market Wrap and Style Shift

00:33 Nvidia Earnings and AI Valuation

01:10 Mag Seven CapEx and Shareholder Returns

02:45 What Is the DTC

03:59 Can Assets Be Seized

04:58 MF Global Cautionary Tale

05:51 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

State of the Union: What It Means for Markets and Investors Feb 25, 2026

Show notes

David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with a Daily Recap recorded shortly before the close as markets trade higher (Dow up ~300, S&P up nearly 1%, Nasdaq up over 1%) and notes upcoming Nvidia earnings. He focuses on economic takeaways from the State of the Union rather than politics, highlighting the lack of new affordability proposals as potentially market-friendly. He says Medicaid drug price controls were reiterated but have little market impact due to low passage odds, and that pharma has largely navigated tariff threats already. He reviews proposals for government-matched quasi-401(k) plans for lower-income Americans, requiring hyperscalers to fund their own power needs, and an unrealistic idea of tariffs replacing income taxes. He supports banning congressional stock trading and notes omissions on credit-card rate caps and 2026 tax-cut reconciliation, while flagging a call to ban institutional ownership of residential real estate.

00:00 Market Snapshot Setup

00:36 State of the Union Focus

01:12 Affordability and Policy Restraint

02:15 Prescription Drugs and Pharma

03:25 New Savings Plan Proposal

03:42 AI Data Centers and Power

04:17 Tariffs and Tax Reality Check

04:45 Congress Stock Trading Ban

05:04 What Wasn't Said and Housing

05:48 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - February 24, 2026 Feb 24, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach office recaps Tuesday’s market rebound: Dow +370, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +1%+, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.03%. He discusses reports of possible tax relief in the State of the Union as potentially positive for productivity and growth, while noting broader political concerns around tariffs and government involvement in private companies. He reviews the finalized broad-based tariff rate of 10% (down from a floated 15%), calling it a meaningful reduction—about $140B less in tariff revenue—supportive of economic growth. Szytel addresses media attention on private credit, saying delinquencies are only modestly higher, spreads remain tight, and lending continues; gated redemptions in some funds reflect illiquid underlying assets, not distress, and cited loan sales were near par (99.70). Economic data was broadly positive: Case-Shiller 20-city home prices +1.4% YoY (0.5% seasonally adjusted), consumer confidence rose to 91.2 vs 88.6 expected, and wholesale inventories were in line at +0.2% for December.

00:00 Market Rebound Recap

00:30 Tax Relief Headlines

01:17 Tariff Rate Update

01:57 Private Credit Reality Check

03:38 Today’s Economic Data

04:35 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com