The DeFi Report

Latest Episodes:

The Case for a New Crypto Bull Market Aug 26, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and how Treasury intervention in long-term yields changed the macro setup. They also cover Strategy’s $1.6B Bitcoin war chest, the return of crypto animal spirits, and the key $81.8K level that could confirm the next bull market.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Regime Shift Begins

2:11 Bullish Catalyst Emerges

6:59 Reading Bitcoin Market Structure

12:20 Capitulation Metrics and Volume

17:01 Crypto Reflexivity Returns

19:58 Treasury Buybacks and Yields

28:56 The 1940s Playbook

35:02 Debasement Trade Reassessment

39:41 Key Bitcoin Levels

42:09 Portfolio Goes Risk On

45:29 Early Bull, Still Active

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle? Aug 19, 2026

Show notes

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AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. Mike and Ryan unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:13 AI Trade Setup

3:12 On-Chain Milestone

6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall

10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift

14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine

25:24 AI Bull vs Bear

30:21 Real Yields Surge

36:03 Bear Market Outlook

39:04 The Next Fat Pitch

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test Aug 12, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup

3:33 On-Chain Cohorts & Capitulation

10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling

13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold

17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher

26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence

32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead

38:20 Pump Thesis & Cycle Upside

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Is This Rally a Trap? Aug 05, 2026

Show notes

The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest BTC sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin

2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained

6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check

13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress

16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift

22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ

26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run

34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes? Jul 29, 2026

Show notes

The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead

2:36 Market Signals Tighten

6:37 Fed Independence Questioned

11:10 Economy Under Pressure

16:32 Housing Fault Lines

21:14 Dollar Strength Warning

24:17 After the Sell-Off

28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook

31:00 Portfolio Patience

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming? Jul 22, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation
8:10 Time-Based Selloff
13:07 Searching for Demand
16:13 Miners Under Pressure
18:45 Strategy and Saylor
21:25 Iran and Oil Risk
28:28 AI Speculation Peaks
34:06 Macro or On-Chain?
37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch
41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio Jul 15, 2026

Show notes

Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well

10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha

13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market

17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run

23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility

31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors

36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI

42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates

46:33 Final Grade for the Year

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Is the Bitcoin Low Really In? Jul 08, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not?

5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto

6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower

12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate

19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check

23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash

34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush? Jul 01, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate

4:57 Key Cycle Indicators

8:39 Rotation Still Missing

14:50 Macro Risks Ahead

27:02 Patience And Returns

30:24 Price Levels To Watch

35:11 Drawdown And Outlook

36:48 More Reports Coming

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle? Jun 24, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro