Show notes
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, I'm answering the question, "How much money do you need to start trading options for a living?" This a big topic that we get all the time. People want to know, "How can I start trading options? How can I generate a living, an income from trading options?" I think it's a challenging topic for me to broach with people because frankly, there's a lot of misconceptions out there and a lot of stuff online that you see that just really isn't that true. And so, when I unfortunately have to tell people how much money they need to generate whatever income they're looking for, it's kind of shock. Unfortunately, I don't always want to be that person that gives them the shock, but I'd rather be the person that tells them honestly and upfront where they are. In most cases, that leads a lot of people away from us, meaning that they just don't think they can ever get to that point or they'll ever get to that point, so they just give up which I don't think is a good idea, but it is what it is. I'd rather be open and upfront and honest with where they should be.
I think when it comes to trading options for a living and just generating an income, I've openly said and I've said it in some of our courses before that if you want to use a withdrawal amount per year of somewhere between 3% and 5% if you want to use a range, ultimately, I think that's probably a very stable level that will allow you to keep money in your account and keep it growing and leave wiggle room for drawdowns and market events that we can't yet predict. I don't know what the sequence of returns you're going to have are, but if you're in that range, that 3% to 5% range, I think you're really, really comfortable for being able to not outlive your portfolio and the income you can generate from it. Now, I know people can poke a lot of holes in 4% rule that you hear all the time and I've done a lot of research on this myself and I know that there's a lot of reasons why 4% doesn't necessarily work and you might have to be at 3% or if you have a lot of capital, you could be at 5% and be totally fine.
There's probably a lot of things out there you can take a look at like retirement withdrawal tables. You can search that online. There's really cool research and studies out there on what is the right level based on how long you expect to live and how much money you expect to drop. But ultimately, what it boils down to are basically two things. If you really look at a lot of the research on withdrawal rates and retirement and income stability for portfolios, it boils down to really two things. It boils down to where the market is at the time that you start these withdrawals. If you start withdrawals at the top of a 2000 bubble in the market or a 2008 bubble in the market or even potentially here, 2018, if the market tops this year… If you start your retirement or your options trading for a living now, you probably have to take a lower number because we might see a downturn in stocks, we might see a downturn in the economy and so, you might want to take a lower number. Now, I'm not even talking about options trading at this point. I'm just talking about the general research that's out there around stocks. And so, if you start your retirement then at the bottom of market moves, so call it 2002, 2003, also 2009, 2010, you start your retirement there or your withdrawals there, you're much more likely to be able to sustain a higher withdrawal rate.
How do we transition this to options trading? Well, obviously, if we're trading options, we can generate a higher expected return in the market. Even just a very simple covered call generates a higher expected return with less volatility than the market. That's why I think you can probably bump that up to like the 4% or 5% range in most cases and take that as a very stable withdraw from your account. Now, that still leaves ample room for growth as I think you should. My thought process on this and the way that I think about it with my wife when we talk about this is that if we're at like 3% to 5% withdrawals from our account, we're leaving a lot of room for compound growth. What people will often do and they email in and say, "Well, Kirk. If we can generate say 15% a year, why can't I take 15% a year?" I say, "Well, you could if you want to, but that doesn't leave enough room to generate compound growth." What I would rather see is people start off with a smaller amount and let that amount grow with your portfolio. The first year, if it's 5% of some number of portfolio, then next year, your portfolio grows because you only took 5% out and now, you're taking 5% of a much larger value and the third year, you're taking 5% again, a much larger value on average. That's the way that I think it should happen.
The reality is that in most cases, you can manipulate your finances and your budget to reduce cost, reduce expenses and live well below your means. I drive a minivan. I don't drive a Ferrari or a Lamborghini. I see that all the time online, these people doing this and I'm like, "That is not longevity. That thing is not going to last forever." My minivan probably won't last forever either, but you can reduce your expenses, you can budget a little bit better. We moved from DC to Pennsylvania and cut our expenses by half when we did that and we have kids. You can do things that manipulate your expenses and your budget to be able to take a lower withdrawal rate, so that you can let money in there to grow. Hopefully that helps out. As far as how much money you need, look, it depends. You can reverse engineer this based on say 5%, maybe use it as a target and then start working towards it. It doesn't mean that you should give up or quit now if you can't get to that level. You can get to that level over time and try to attack it from both angles. Try to save more money by reducing your expenses and that helps get you to that point just that much faster. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let us know. Until next time, happy trading!