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    The “Daily Call” From Option Alpha

    Join Kirk Du Plessis on The “Daily Call”, created and dedicated to you, the options trader, stock market investors or trading wannabe. This is your daily dose of actionable advice, tips, and strategies to help you learn how to generate and earn income investing with options.

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    Latest Episodes:
    #211 - The "Herd Mentality" Continues To Prove Itself Apr 21, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be talking about why the herd mentality continues to prove itself as a valuable indicator of potentially market tops and market bottoms. Herd mentality is basically a very simple concept that describes why investors in general, move in herds or clusters around generally bad ideas. Once it's often said, "Once the herd gets involved, it's basically the end of the road for bull and bear markets." What you see often is you see a market that is starting to rise and starting to move up and then it starts to reach critical mass where everybody starts to succumb to the market and starts to buy in, whether they believe in it or not because everyone is doing it. It's this idea or fear of missing out that eventually gets everyone sucked into the concept or the purchase of shares or the selling of securities because that's basically what everyone else is doing and they don't want to be left behind, they don't want to miss a potential opportunity and it's also culminating with potentially, market tops and market bottoms. Once everyone is in, that's probably the best time to get out or once everyone is selling, that's probably the best time to start buying.

    Now, we recently saw this not only in the US equity markets in February of 2018, but we also saw this in the cryptocurrency market. It's probably a shining example of this in the cryptocurrency markets back in 2017 as well. And in both cases, what we saw are huge run-ups in the price of the underlying securities, both in the US equity markets, also in cryptocurrency across the board and everybody was piling into it. And I, myself, even one of the reasons why I continue to run Option Alpha is because I get a lot of the emails and I can see naturally where people are by just the sheer number and volume of emails that I get on different topics. I can tell you in both cases that a lot of people basically just threw in the towel and started buying at or near these tops. In fact, in the cryptocurrency market, you almost heard literally every single day, somebody talk about it on news, podcast, radio, Tweet, Facebook, etcetera. It was everywhere and if you weren't involved in it at the time, you are missing out and you're missing out on this herd mentality, so a lot of people got involved.

    I often use unfortunately, a lot of my family members as my indicators or my old-school shoeshine boy type indicators which many of you have probably heard the story. But when the shoeshine boy says that he's going to start buying stocks, then you know it's probably a bad time to buy stocks. But a lot of my family started asking me about cryptocurrency very close to the top and I started telling myself, "Hey. This is probably going to be the top because my family members are not the type that always follows the markets and are always invested in the markets." And so, when they started asking me about cryptocurrency, now I know it's reached critical mass, like it's gotten to this point that it's reached my wife's family and my extended family. Now, it's at the point now where it could be at the top.

    I think that the herd mentality continues to prove itself actually in a lot of different ways and it takes time. It's really got to be this over-enthusiasm for a market or an industry or sector or in the reverse, it's got to be just completely throwing in the towel. Whenever we do have a market move down, I think we're going to see herd mentality come into place when basically, every article out there, every new story, everything you see is sell your stocks, dump your stocks, dump your everything, there's no value, it's never coming back. Those almost exaggerated or overly-pessimistic type comments, when we see those, that's probably the time that the market is going to start reversing or start bottoming out in the future. I think it's going to happen in the future. It happens in both sides, so let's not be so naïve that we think that this only happens at market tops. It happens in market bottoms as well. And so, I think we could see that happening many, many times over the course of my lifetime in the future going forward.

    Hopefully this helps out. As always, be wary of herd mentality, make sure that you're always taking one extra step back and asking yourself critical questions about where we are in trends and cycles and continuing to sell options all around this because at the end of the day, even if we're selling options, none of this stuff really matters because we have such a short duration and market direction is meaningless with more frequency. As always, hopefully this helps out. If you guys have any questions you want to get added to the daily call or to some of the answers that we're doing on Facebook and YouTube Live, please head on over to optionalpha.com/ask and leave me a private voicemail there and we'll make sure we get you added to the queue. Until next time, happy trading!


    #210 - Systematic Vs. Unsystematic Risk Apr 20, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again and welcome back to the daily call. On today's call, we are going to be talking about the differences between systematic versus unsystematic risk in the market. I think this is an interesting discussion and it gets me back to my roots, I guess of old finance class in college. But it's a concept that I think all investors have to understand. It's a very easy concept that can be a little bit overwhelming just by the terms and the names, but it's actually very, very simple to understand if you take just two minutes here today in our call and podcast to understand the differences between them.

    There's two types of risk broadly speaking in the market. The first type of risk is risk that is specific to whatever underlying security or industry you are investing in. To use the furthest end of the extreme spectrum, let's say that you're going to invest in Apple computers and Apple technology. Well, you have risk in just at investing in Apple. Apple has its own risk profile, basically. It's a tech company. It's in the technology space. It has software, it has subscription services. It's definitely not an industrial manufacturing company. It is not a real estate investment trust. It is not a biotech company. All those other companies have their own risk profiles and Apple has its own risk profile. When you invest in Apple, you have risk that Apple is going to go under or be overshadowed by some other emerging technology that we don't even know about or there could be a shift in consumer pricing and sentiment and people don't buy their products anymore. There's all of this risk associated to that particular security which you're investing in. That type of risk is called specific or unsystematic risk. Now, the way that I always think about it is with these two terms, I think system, meaning the entire system… That's probably the easiest way I always think about it, is that systematic risk is risk to everything and everyone. Unsystematic risk is risk that is particular to one particular company. It's not risk that is present to the entire ecosystem or the entire investing universe, the entire global market.

    When you have unsystematic or specific risk, that is risk for every single security that you're trading. Each individual security that you're trading has its own little unique risk profile. Now, the interesting thing about this is that when you look at modern portfolio theory and diversification theory, you realize that that unsystematic risk can be diversified. You can not only just invest in Apple, but you can spread your risk or your investment across many different securities and different industries. Even simply investing in say a real estate investment trust or a REIT which buys or sells property, just having those two positions now in your portfolio versus just one position in Apple can now reduce the amount of unsystematic risk because now, your risk is spread across two different industries, two different sectors. They also commonly refer to unsystematic risk as diversifiable risk. You can diversify out of it. You can actively do something to manipulate the amount of risk in your portfolio by not investing all of your eggs in one basket. You can invest in this company and that company, in this sector, in this industry. It's often thought that the S&P 500 and it's probably true that the S&P 500 is consistently the best combination of 500 securities that creates the least amount of risk per unit of potential return. It's the market efficient portfolio. That's why it's the S&P 500. That's what it was built around. It's 500 securities in that basket that create the best combination of risk return profile.

    Now, even still, the S&P and every other stock portfolio out there has what's called systematic risk. As we described earlier, systematic risk is applicable or applied to the entire ecosystem or the entire investing global market and its risk that you cannot diversify out of. Now, risk that you cannot diversify out of are things that affect the entire macro economics of global markets, so things like interest rates, inflation, market recessions, sovereign debt crisis these we don't see, wars that we don't see happening. There are so many things that could be lumped into this systematic risk category. The reality is that investors are always taking on some level of systematic risk. We don't know what's going to happen in the future. That's why black swans are present. That's actually why a lot of options traders make money selling options because of this unknown in the future that they have to hedge against. Systematic risk is again, risk that you can't necessarily diversify yourself out of even if you had a bunch of different securities and a bunch of different industries. At some point, there's going to be some market correction or market drawdown that happens that affects a lot of different securities or a lot of different industries, maybe a ton of different companies globally or countries globally. And so, that is the type of risk that you are just naturally going to assume.

    Now, we try to minimize when you build out a portfolio, the unsystematic risk versus the systematic risk. That's even what we do in options trading. Like in my account, what I try to do is I try to every single month, build out a portfolio of many different ETFs and tickers in different industries and sectors, so that I try to minimize the amount of risk or exposure that I have to one particular area. I won't invest in just let's say FXE and FXY which are two currency ETFs. That would be stupid of me to invest just in currency ETFs. I would want to also invest in other things like the S&P or XRT which is a retail ETF. We could do gold or silver or a commodity like oil. We could do semiconductors or biotech or healthcare. There are so many different things that you can invest in. You try to get a pretty good mix in your portfolio, so that you reduce this amount of unsystematic risk that's tied to one individual security. Again, I think this concept on the outside is sometimes really hard for people to understand, but if you followed today's podcast and hopefully you did, it's a very easy concept to finally grasp once you just take a couple of minutes to just slowdown and understand what we're trying to do. It's not that all systematic risk can be avoided because it can't. That's unavoidable, un-diversifiable risk. But what you can do is you can reduce the position size of all these individual position, so that you still leave money on the table, you still have cash in reserve, so that if a huge systematic event does occur, especially in stocks and you're 100% long in stocks, you have money left over to trade.

    Now, as a side note, what none of this includes in my opinion and has really been covered deeply in the market and the media is that when you introduce a level of options trading to all of this, it creates the ability to profit from down moves. When you hedge with options or use an options trading strategy where you're market neutral, even if the market goes down and there's this huge systematic event risk, it still won't necessarily affect an options trader's portfolio. You might have a sting from the initial move lower, but it won't necessarily cripple you and that's I think something that options trading can give that traditional stock investing on the long side, the long equity side doesn't really have the ability to do. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know. Until next time, happy trading!


    #209 - Are Breakaway Gaps Reliable Indicators Of Trend Changes? Apr 19, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be answering the question, "Are breakaway gaps reliable indicators of trend changes?" Now, I always think it's interesting to talk a little bit about chart patterns and market patterns because a lot of it is pretty subjective. I mean, there's a lot of things that can be left up to interpretation. Was that a shooting star or was that a pennant pattern? There's a lot of interpretation to it. But I do think there's some meaning behind it. I won't totally discredit it. I don't think it's something that you absolutely need to have and understand to be successful. We've clearly proven in our back-testing research and our own trading that you don't need to understand chart patterns or market dynamics to be successful. But having a decent understanding of them I don't think hurts either because if you see something on a chart and particularly on candlestick charting, it can be a good indication of when you might want to shift or rethink your portfolio structure at least on the outside. I won't say that it's absolutely necessary, but it is something that I do find interesting.

    Today's question came from a member and the question was, "Are these breakaway gaps reliable indicators of trend change?" First of all, there's three types of gaps basically. You have breakaway gaps which particularly might start at the beginning of a trend where the stock has this huge gap up. A gap just basically refers to the new opening price is significantly above yesterday's closing price or basically, yesterday's entire market trading range. What this does on a chart, on a candlestick chart is it creates a fully functional gap. There is no overlap at all between yesterday's pricing of any kind, high, lows, close, open and today's new pricing. Breakaway gaps are traditionally found at the beginning of a trend, so a stock might be high and then have some really good news and then start this whole new dimension of potentially moving higher as far as the trend and it also could happen at the bottom of a move. A stock is continuing to move lower and then has really terrible news, it just continues to get pounded down and it has this huge gap lower, almost like a new dimension and new trend that continues to move lower. There's also continuation gaps which generally happen just in the middle of a trend, don't really seem like any huge breakaway by any stretch and then exhaustion gaps which are just kind of this final blow off top, if you will.

    We recently saw this, not to use cryptocurrency too much, but we did see this a lot in cryptocurrency where like bitcoin and litecoin and all these other cryptocurrencies back in 2017 were topping and you would see these gaps in prices that just their price was going up thousands of dollars a day with seemingly no end, but it was all exhaustion. How do you recognize one, maybe a breakaway gap? The first is it's got to happen at maybe some consolidation. A consolidation has to be a part of it. It can't happen just in the middle of a very stable, nice uptrend. There's got to be some consolidation and then a clear new paradigm or a directional trend change and it's usually accompanied by significant volume. If you look at the average daily volume for a stock, you would see on the day where there's potentially a breakaway gap that there's significant volume, maybe 2X or 3X the regular volume. It's got to be some really, really groundbreaking news that's major, major shift to the stock and its pricing and its future expectation. This happens in either the uptrend or downtrend.

    Now, the only place that I can find that really has at least some decent stats on charting these gaps and their reliability is if you go to Thomas Bulkowski's site which he is the author of encyclopedia of chart patterns. Good book, good read. Definitely for sure, I read it many years ago. I haven't read it since then. But he's got some good stats on stuff that he's tracked as far as breakaway gaps and chart patterns, so that's probably the best place to find any numbers on reliability. Now, there hasn't been too much other research on this. Again, a lot of it is very subjective, it's open to interpretation, but as far as Bulkowski's website and his research on this, he says that basically, breakaway gaps both in upward and downward moving markets have the potential to reverse the gap just 1% to 2% of the time. Now, I think it's interesting and it's basically saying that 98% to 99% of the time, if you do find a true breakaway gap that it has a very low likelihood of reversing. Now, again, you have to find these when the market has significant volume and there's been some consolidation and there's major news that's shifting the underlying security.

    Now, I don't know if I would technically agree with this, but I understand the premise behind it and maybe the data was skewed and maybe the analysis was skewed. Again, it's very subjective. You can't basically code this into his trading strategy and chart system to trade these. But I think it's interesting to find that if you do see the market consolidating and then have this huge move higher, significantly move higher with a huge gap in the chart that it could be a new shift in the trend or continuation of uptrend that had stalled for a couple of months. I think there's something to it. I just don't know if I would say there's a 99% or 98% chance of it never reversing or closing that window. But at least that's the research that he said. If anybody else has found other research out there, I'd love to know. Hit me up on Facebook or Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, wherever you want to connect with me. I want to know what other research people are doing out there. I thought this was an interesting question today, something we don't often talk about, but it's something that I wanted to get answered for you guys and remember. Again, if you guys have questions, let us know at optionalpha.com/ask and we'll get you queued up for the next daily call. Until next time, happy trading!


    #208 - Covered Calls - Now You Can Automate The Entire Strategy Apr 18, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone, Kirk here again from optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be talking about covered calls and how you can automate this entire strategy now using our upcoming auto-trading software. I believe that covered calls are a great bridge between stock traders and options traders. It is in fact, probably one of the easiest bridges to cross as you start transitioning from just trading stock to potentially trading more options or eventually, just options and no stock. Covered calls are a very simple strategy whereby if you are long 100 shares of stock, you are able to then sell a call option at or above where the stock is trading right now, collect a little bit of income and reduce your cost basis on the way. We've done a lot of podcast, a lot of training on this, so you can just search our website at Option Alpha. Just search for covered calls. There's lots of examples and trainings and case studies and research that you can check out.

    But the idea behind doing this does require that every single month, you come back in and you sell that covered call against your position. You may have a stock position for a couple of months and you consistently have to come back in and sell a covered call against that position every single month. Or if the stock goes above your call strike, you put the stock and basically, the strategy disappears. You have to repurchase the shares and then resell the covered call all over again. Well, what we're going to be doing with our automated options trading software that we're going to be releasing here is giving you the ability with very simple templates to setup your own covered call and to have this entire process automated for you. All you have to do is be able to pick the underlying security that you want, you adjust how much of the security you want to purchase, how much stock and then from there, you set the covered call level and let the bots, let the auto-trading bots basically take it from there. It will manage the position when it needs to manage it. If you have a profit target setup or if you want to roll the contracts at a certain price point or a certain time in the future, it will all happen automatically.

    The key for me on doing this is that if anybody is still trading covered calls out there and we know it's a viable strategy, we know… In fact, we've done research on this and so many other people have done this, so it's not just us that's confirming this. But doing a simple covered call even on the broad markets beats the S&P 500 time and time again. It beats it multiple years, less variance, less volatility in your account, so why not do it, right? And so, for us, it's a way to build out basically an indexed covered call. That's the way that I think about it, is that if you want to be super, super passive in the markets and just invest in the indexes which many people want to do and that's okay, if you want to do that, why not use our auto-trading software to actually do that with covered calls. Be super passive. You don't have to monitor it unless you want to. You don't have to interact with it unless you want to. This way, you can basically trade an indexed covered call with little to no interaction from you. I think that's one of the coolest features that we have and again, it's going to be a very simple template that you can go into once the auto-trading software comes out and be able to just simply one-click clone the strategy template, enter your ticker symbol, enter your parameters or use the ones that are defaulted there for you and let the strategy work for you in your account.

    As always, hopefully you guys are excited about this. If you have any questions let us know and until next time, happy trading!


    #207 - Short Covering & Dead Cat Bounces Apr 17, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone, Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be talking about short covering and dead cat bounces. And no, we do not harm animals on this podcast, nor in trading. But the dead cat bounce is a concept that's very, very often used in describing markets that selloff quickly and then rebound quickly.

    Let's cover short covering first. Short covering just basically is the general concept of closing out a position where you're short. You're covering your short by buying back the stock. And so, this would generally happen if you're trading stock and you sell stock to begin with. You can do that, by the way. Most people actually don't know that that can be an entry position. You can sell something you don't own. But you have the obligation obviously to cover that position by buying back the stock later hopefully at a lower price. If you think that a stock is going to go lower, you might sell stock at $100 hoping to cover or buy the stock back at say $90 and make the difference between the spread. This is different than actually a short squeeze. Short covering is commonly referred to for just covering the position that you're short. It doesn't have anything to do with maybe necessarily a major market bounce or a major reversal in a stock. It's just simply the process by which short options and short stock traders cover their position.

    Short squeezes on the other hand are a concept where in the market, if there's a lot of people who are short, open interest or short interest in the security and the security goes down, you might see a little bit of a rally because you get some sort of short squeeze where all of this rush of buying activity comes back in for people to cover positions. Now, it doesn't always have to be at the bottom of a move. It often happened actually at the top of a move. People are really short a particular stock and that stock ends up having really good news, then you might see a lot of people start closing out their short positions and to do that, they have to buy the stock back in the open market and that causes a huge rally in the stock and the stock really never went down the first place. People are just covering their positions. That's what typically happens in a short squeeze.

    Dead cat bounces on the other hand are probably one of my favorite things at least to talk about because I think it's a crazy name and I don't even know how this name came about, but it did. But it's this concept that when you throw potentially a dead cat out the window that even a dead cat would bounce off the ground as you throw it out the window. Again, full disclosure, we don't harm animals on this podcast. But this concept I think actually rings really true and although you can't really prove this, it's not really been back-tested. Just in my own trading experience over the last 10 plus years, I've seen this a lot where the markets have very, very sharp selloffs and it's usually at this capitulation point, even intraday or on a weekly chart or on a daily chart, you see this where this market has these capitulations, huge moves down, seems like everything is going to break and fall apart and then it has a nice bounce back up.

    Now, sometimes these dead cat bounces don't last forever. It's just this concept that at least after a huge down move in the market, we're going to see some sort of relief rally. People are going to start taking positions off or start bottom feeding and start buying up stocks or buying up the underlying security. It doesn't have to be that this becomes the bottom, but at least it becomes a temporary bottom where the selling subsides or the move down subsides and starts to move back up at least temporarily for people to start, again, bottom feeding or start covering their short positions. I have seen this a lot. I think it's actually true. I don't know… Again, there's no research on the magnitude of dead cat bounces or how often they happen or what move it has to happen, but just generally, you'll get a better feel for it if you start watching some charts for a couple of years which unfortunately means for some of you, they have to do this for a little bit longer. But it's something that we do see, so don't be scared if you see the markets starting to have a little bit of a capitulation move down. There's probably a little bit of a relief and not that it's going to totally end the down move, but the markets don't go straight down and straight up is really the point. Hopefully this helps out. Until next time, happy trading!


    #206 - Broker Approval Levels Are Causing More Traders To Lose Money Apr 16, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be talking about why I think broker approval levels are causing more traders to actually lose money. I'll go a little bit against the grain here on this because I understand in theory why brokers have trading approval levels and I get the concept behind why they have it. They have it in place, so that they basically don't give you access to something that you can't handle. But I think that it's been something that hasn't been changed in so long that they don't even have a good understanding of what access is. Most broker approval levels will go through a very simple process where your first or second level of approval will allow you to trade options, but only single options and then usually covered calls. I think this is where the problem lies. The problem lies with just that first or second level, depending on what broker you're at, in allowing you to trade covered calls and then allowing you just to do single long option contracts.

    I'm okay with covered calls. I'm okay with covered puts. I think it's an option selling risk reduction strategy, but the problem starts to entertain itself when we get into single leg long options, either long puts or long calls. This is why I think people are actually losing money because what brokers want to see you do before you get into a higher approval level is they want to see that you have some trading experience, some trading knowledge, maybe even done some of this trading before. The problem is that they give you the ability to do it just with single options. They think they're doing you a service by saying, "Here, just go ahead and trade these single option contracts." But that's completely backwards from what we should be doing. We should be trading spreads to begin with or should be at least giving people the ability to trade spreads to begin with, so they don't blow up their account buying all these option contracts and basically getting in the wrong frame of mind of what options trading is and how to generate income from it.

    I think it's a little bit backwards. It's something that obviously rubs me the wrong way, but it's something that we have to work through. I would suggest if you're trading, try not to get approval for just the next or first level at your brokerage. You want to try to get approval for the highest possible tier. Now, it doesn't mean that you always have to use every strategy available to you, but at least you have the opportunity to use spreads to begin with. Especially if you're a new trader or a beginning trader, you want the ability to use spreads. It controls risk, it manages your money a lot better and you have a much higher probability of success than if you would just go out and buy single leg long calls or long put options. We do have a really great podcast on how you can manage all these different broker approval levels and how you can quickly work your way up. In most cases, the four main broker approval levels on our regular podcast. It's over at optionalpha.com/show48, so you can just go over to your browser and check out optionalpha.com/show48. Hopefully this helps out and until next time, happy trading!


    #205 - People Are Attracted To The Stock Market For The Wrong Reasons Apr 15, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone, Kirk here again and welcome back to the daily call. On today's daily call, we're going to talk about probably the three reasons why I think people are attracted to the stock market for the wrong reasons. I've scripted out here three particular, I guess paradigms or things that we want to compare and contrast. When I boil this down, I was thinking about this before I started recording the show. I think there's a difference between what people actually are going after and what is potentially required of them to be successful and therein lies the difference between why people are invested or attracted to the stock market for the wrong reasons.

    The first one here is I think people are naturally attracted. There's no overstating this or overshadowing the reason why people get into the market and that's because they're on a get-rich-quick. And while I don't condone on any level, get-rich-quick, what I do think people are attracted to is the allure of potentially making a lot of money in a very short time period. Look. We're all pretty much greedy animals when it comes to our money and wealth building and there's no doubt that that's why most people are actually poor because they do the wrong things for potentially the right reasons or the right setup, but they just have no patience and they're trying to get rich quick and they end up making really bad decisions. But I think people are attracted to any market. It doesn't necessarily have to be the stock market. If you look at the cryptocurrency market over the last couple of months, they have this huge euphoria in cryptocurrency, everyone was attracted to it, people were taking out loans on their houses to buy cryptocurrency. It was crazy because people were attracted to the get-rich-quick. Now, contrast this to what actually happens and it's a true wealth building vehicle and for a wealth building vehicle like the stock market or the options market, it takes time to work out. It takes compound interest and patience and many, many years for systems and investment strategies to work out and that creates a little bit of a disconnect.

    The second thing is I think people are attracted to the market for the lifestyle that they think trading in the market or investing in the market is going to give them. And while that can be definitely true that trading can give you a decent lifestyle… I'm not saying that it can't. It gives you a lot of freedom. There is a lot of work that's involved. And I think what people see on the outside is they see people driving Lamborghinis and trading from the beach and that's not really how it happens. In fact, that's probably the antithesis of how it happens. There is a lot of work that's involved. There's probably a lot of frontend work on your part to find a strategy, find a system that works for you, that fits well within your lifestyle and then to consistently monitor that and monitor your portfolio. And so, I think there is a disconnect between what people are actually looking for and maybe what actually has to happen. Now, again, I don't think that it's totally your head down in the computer, in the sand all day every day. I think you can build a great lifestyle around trading and investing, but it's not independent of having to put in some work. You have to put in some work to get there.

    The third thing that I want to talk about is the idea of emotions versus systems. Many people get started in the stock market because they like a company or they think they have an edge up by buying some hot tech company or hot biotech company that they know or understand. And I'm all using air finger quotes for all of these. You just can't see me doing it. But the reality is that investing in the market is not an emotion game. In fact, it's far from it. The best investors out there and the best traders use systems and strategies and work the numbers. And so, although people are attracted to the market because they like Coca-Cola or they like Apple stock initially, that's not what is going to get them eventually to being able to build a sustainable income producing system or wealth producing system investing in the markets. You have to have those systems, those concrete strategies in place and realize that it's probably more of a systems game than it is an emotional game. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading!


    #204 - What Are LEAP Options? Apr 14, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be answering the question, "What are LEAP options?" Yes, L-E-A-P options. Very quickly, leap options are commonly referred to as long-term equity anticipation securities. I know that's a mouthful, I know that's a lot, but that's basically what they are. They are option contract with expiration dates that are usually longer than one year. And so, their allure for many investors and the reason why a lot of people start trading LEAPs is probably a couple of things. One is the ability to get long-term exposure into an underlying with very minimal capital actually outlaid from your account. For example, if you wanted to buy the S&P 500 or the ticker symbol SPY which is the ETF that basically trades that, you could buy the SPY. But right now, it's trading about 260 ish based on the time I'm recording this podcast, so you have to outlay that much capital times 100 contracts and so, it cost a lot of money to buy the S&P and then hold it for two years or hold it for a year. What you could do instead is you could use an option contract to facilitate the same basic exposure to long S&P by using a LEAP option. And so, you could use a contract that's dated a year or two years out from today's date and get exposure to the S&P 500 and the broad market with only a fraction of the actual investment that would be required to purchase 100 shares of SPY.

    It's probably one of the biggest reasons why people like LEAP options and undoubtedly, if you are going to take a long-term position in an underlying, I think a LEAP option is a great way to go about it. I think it's a very efficient way to use capital and not tie up a lot of your money. In fact, using LEAP options and then selling closer in covered calls against that and doing basically a synthetic covered call I think is a great alternative to just outright buying stock. Another reason why people like to use LEAP options is because the longer maturity and the longer timeframe leads to generally a little bit less fluctuation in the price. Now, you're going to pay a little bit more for this. You can't get any free lunch in the market. You pay a little bit more for these LEAP option contracts because they're so far out in time and have the potential to make a lot of money, but the fluctuation in price is very, very minimal. You're not going to get basically any time decay on those contracts until you get much closer into expiration. You're going to have some impact on volatility obviously on those contracts and the movement of the underlying will impact the LEAP contracts as well, but as far as the volatility decay factor, it's going to be very, very, very small on these LEAP options because they're so far out in time.

    Now, the key thing to remember is of course, they do expire. There is a point at which you start to have to make decisions about holding those contracts or getting rid of those contracts and taking profits or realizing losses, however the underlying security moved because as you get closer and closer to expiration, those contracts are going to start to decay and lose some of their extrinsic value that have been really kind of baked into the meat of the contract from day one. You do have to really pick and choose your entry points and your timelines with LEAP options a little bit more than you would with more of a traditional closer in contract. Something that we often say is maybe a good starting point at least for analysis when you do LEAP options if you're going to buy a long call option, long call leap is maybe start looking around a Delta of say 80. Now, in this case, a Delta of 80 means that if the stock rises by $1, you're going to participate in about 80% of that rise or $.80 of that rise. It replicates about 80 shares of stock. That's the ideal number. Now, that Delta can move and change as the stock goes further in the money or out of the money, but at least it's a good starting point where you're buying options in the money, you're trying to replicate as much as possible a synthetic stock position without again, all the underlying cost that's associated with it.

    As far as LEAP options contracts go, it's actually pretty interesting if you look at some ticker symbols, index funds, ETFs, also underlying regular securities like Microsoft or Apple or Adobe, any of these things. Most of the big products have LEAP options that just go out further in time. Now, they're not actually designated on many broker platforms as LEAPs. They just are LEAPs by the sheer fact that they go out more than traditionally about a year in time. You won't see on your broker platform these are LEAP options. The expiration date will just be out in the future a year or two years out. When I look at the S&P right now, the LEAP options actually go all the way out to December 2020, so almost 1000 days out from where we are right now which is actually kind of crazy. If you want basically 1000 days of exposure to the S&P 500, there is a market for that. There are contracts that go out that far. Now, as we go out further in time and as you trade less liquid products, then the liquidity of these contracts becomes obviously questionable. In the S&P 500, the liquidity is pretty good on LEAP options that are two and even three years out in some cases because there's a big market for hedging, there's a big institutional market for trading the S&P 500. If you look at for example like Microsoft, (and I'm just typing this and looking at it in the background as well) you can go all the way out to January of 2020, so 650 days out in Microsoft, but the liquidity is less than the liquidity in the S&P.

    Now, there's not totally no liquidity in Microsoft. There's definitely liquidity and you can trade it, but the bid ask spreads are pretty wide. The further you go out and the more people don't want to trade that far out, you're going to effectively pay in having much wider spreads and a little bit less liquidity. But again, it's all relative to your goals and your underlying assumptions about where things are going and I think there's a need for it in the market. I think they serve a good purpose and they're definitely something that I don't see changing. In fact, I think they're going to continue to get longer and longer durations. I foresee eventually that people are going to start trading five and 10-year LEAP options in some cases in the future. Once that happens, we'll see how the volatility plays out on those and maybe there'll be a point at which we start selling leaps as underlyings and start taking in some implied volatility edge on those. I'm not sure what the research would suggest at that point, but it would probably require a longer time period for us to be able to analyze those than we have available right now. In either case, hopefully this helped out. If you guys have any questions on LEAPs or any questions you'd like to hear on the podcast, as always, let us know. Shoot us an email, send us a Tweet, post on Facebook or head on over to optionalpha.com/ask and leave me a private voicemail there. Again, until next time, happy trading!


    #203 - Is 5% Per Month Trading Options Even Possible? Apr 13, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be answering the question, "Is 5% per month trading options even possible?" Once and for all, I think that the answer to this question is unequivocally, "No. It is not possible to do that on a consistent basis." I'm actually floored that there are still sites out there… I won't even name the names, but it's probably some part of the title of this podcast that promote and suggest that 5% returns per month on a whole portfolio basis is consistently possible. If you really think about this rationally, you would be looking at 60% annualized returns every single year and that would put you in not only the top category for every single hedge fund, every single mutual fund, but very quickly, you would own the entire world. You would have at that point, compounded growth at 60% per year which you would own the entire world of investable assets. Therefore, it is not possible to do 5% per month trading options.

    Now, is it possible to have a 5% month? Of course! Could you have one single month or maybe even two months in some cases where you have just insane returns and really good returns for those two months? Of course it's possible. It's statistically possible. It's probably happened to people before. But on an ongoing basis, it is completely ridiculous to think that you can generate 5% per month trading options without taking on massive, massive risk and leverage. And of course, the more leverage, the more risk you take on, the higher chance you increase and probability of completely blowing up your account is. Hopefully this ends that entire conversation. There is no way you can get to that level. Now, we've talked about what you could get to and we've got training and guides on expected returns, portfolio returns that you can target. It's got to be reasonable and I think a lot of people are being unreasonable in this space. 5% a month, no way, no how, nobody's ever done it. Show me somebody who's ever done consistently 5% per month or anywhere close to that 60% annualized returns. It's not possible and it's not out there. Hopefully this helps out. Until next time, happy trading!


    #202 - Options Trading Advice For Teenagers Apr 12, 2018
    Show notes

    Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, I wanted to offer maybe some options trading advice for teenagers. Now, where this came from is actually from my nephew who came to me and started asking questions about what I did and why I always looked at these funky charts and all this stuff. And so, it was kind of an interesting conversation, nothing that I actually thought would actually happen, but it did. He came to me and said, "What do you do? What are all these charts?" I tried to explain it to him a little bit, but I thought to myself, "Okay. There's probably a need for a little bit of advice maybe from the parenting side to teenagers or to their kids or friends or mentors (whatever you do) that would help out." And so, I wanted to offer some of that now.

    In all fairness, my nephew is a self-described preteen, he says because he is not yet 13, he is 12, so he describes himself as a preteen. But this advice is more for people who are kids, who are teenagers who are starting to get interested in the markets. Now, I actually had a little bit of an interest in the markets initially during like the later part of my high school experience. Thankfully, my mom and I… I think I've said this before, but my mom actually took me to a seminar on stock trading and options trading like way back. I mean, this is old-school back in the day and that's where I got one of my first introduction to this entire thing and I just very much gravitated towards it very naturally. I think there's a lot of value to be set in getting kids involved in options trading and just managing their finances and basically, financial literacy as early as possible.

    One of the things that I want to do in a later stage of life is start doing more with financial literacy for teenagers and kids. I think that we've done a good job and we're going to continue to focus on adults and people who have investable assets. But one of the things I want to do in the future is start to really focus on again, kids and teenagers and financial literacy. I think there's a huge gap in financial literacy in this country and I'm just baffled by it, like I don't understand why in most cases, school systems and universities teach everyone all this information to get a great job and make all this money, but nothing about how to manage their money or how to navigate the markets. It's like – Okay. You made this money and then just give it away blindly to somebody else. Who knows better? I don't believe in that. I think everyone can make better decisions by themselves and can manage their portfolio just as well or if not, better than somebody else without the fees.

    In all of this, some of the advice I would give to teenagers… If you are a teenager and you're thinking about trading or started trading or if you're a parent and you're starting to coach your teenager or coach your son or daughter on trading and finances, I think there's a couple of key things to learn. One is you have to learn expected outcome. I think that's probably one of the biggest things that I would say is relevant for this day and age and even going forward in the future, is looking at the expected outcome of a system, a strategy, a financial model because there's going to be gyrations and what I think people fail to understand now is that when they look at a financial model, everyone's always looking at the initial ups and downs. "How much did I make this month?" versus "How much did I lose last month?" Those numbers could be the same or drastically different. But what's more important than the initial gyrations up or down or even during the entire period is the expected outcome at the end. If I know that my expected outcome is a 10% return, then really, I shouldn't care about the in between.

    That's why I think I relate this a lot when I think about kids who are starting and people who are starting early as that whole old concept that we all know about starting to save earlier and basically valuing compound interest. If we start saving earlier, then we have all this money at the end because we started earlier. It's the same thing with expected outcome. If the expected outcome is X, then the earlier you start, the quicker you're going to get to that level because you're going to have more time to increase trade frequency to hit your probabilities, more time for market gyrations to basically trade through. All of that stuff is way more important than starting later on. That's the first thing, expected outcome.

    Two is risk management or position size. I still am baffled by why people trade too big, too large. I think the earlier we are able to teach people the importance of trading small positions in whatever they do… I'm not even saying just trading. I'm saying whatever they do as far as investing should be in small positions in multiple different areas or different sectors, investments, so that no one single investment blows up in their face and cripples them. A lot of people still throw all of their money into the stock market and while that's not a bad thing, I think they should have more than just their money in the stock market. Many of you guys know that I'm a real estate investor. I obviously run Option Alpha, so that's another investment that I consider to be an investment. You should have your money in different places. I still am baffled by the fact that a lot of people don't understand this concept. The earlier we can describe it to teenagers and present that information to them, the better off they're going to be. That's one of the other things.

    The third thing I would say is consistency and persistence. I think those two things are some of the most important mental concepts that we can teach young people and teenagers in this space, is having the mental fortitude to consistently work at a system, to be persistent in trading or investing or saving, whatever you want to use as your guinea pig for your conversation, but to have the persistence to keep doing that when it feels like you don't want to do it. One of the things that I would definitely say me and my wife did and I'm super proud that we did this is when we got married and even still to this day, I've never had a car payment. I've never bought a new car. I've never even bought a used car and had a car payment. I know that's not possible for people, but for us, we made it possible. A lot of people, a lot of our friends at the time when we got married and we're living in a small condo, everyone bought new cars. They bought new houses, they bought new cars. We knew that that's not what we wanted to do. We knew that we wanted to save, we wanted to invest and that was our focus. We had the persistence and the mental fortitude to not do the things that everyone else was doing because we had the long-term endgame in mind.

    That's something I think is lacking in this day and age, is that everyone sees… And in most cases, it is done by the parents and by family members. Everyone's trying to keep up with the Joneses. If somebody else gets a new thing, widget, then everyone else has to get the new thing, widget. We need to teach our young people and our teenagers that you don't have to do that to be successful, that you can have the persistence to keep saving your money and forego those shiny objects that you don't really need right now and will serve you no purpose in the future for something else greater in the future, some higher expected value in the future. One of the things that I learned early on and I think about it now is that if you take anything that you buy right now, it's basically worth five times more in the future, meaning if I buy something for $100 now, what I'm effectively doing by buying something for $100 is giving up $500 of potential value at some point in the future, 10, 20 years from now.

    I would relate that back for teenagers. I would say that $20 thing right there could be worth $200 in a couple of years if you just saved your money and invested it or did whatever. So, tying those two things together and making it more of a value proposition to save money or to invest money, do whatever they need to do I think is a better way to go about it. Hopefully this helps out. I don't know. I thought about this today and I was like, "You know what? This is probably something that we could start a whole discussion and thread on." If you have comments on this or if you've started to go through this with your own teenager… My daughters are not teenagers yet, so we are not at that point yet where we have to start having these finance conversations, but eventually they will. Let me know if you have any comments or ideas, suggestions. We'll start a huge thread about this in the forums and on the community. Until next time, happy trading!


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