The "Daily Call" From Option Alpha

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#350 - The Ultimate "Quick" Guide To Option Trading Strategies Sep 07, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to go through my ultimate quick guide to options trading strategies. Options trading strategies are nothing more than a combination of calls and puts, either short or long that allow you then to create a custom payoff scenario for various market conditions or expectations. Now, unlike stock which is a one-dimensional trading vehicle, you can only buy stock or sell stock, options have the beautiful advantage of being able to be crafted to your exact specifications. This is why I love options trading in general, is that whatever market expectation or whatever stock expectation you have, you can generally build an option strategy around that and that means that you don't always have to take directional bets. You don't always have to be long an underlying stock or be bullish on an underlying stock. You can be bearish. You can be bullish. You can even be neutral within a range. You can have the expectation that volatility will generally contract or expand. There's a lot of different ways that you can profit with option strategies as opposed to just trading regular stock.

Now, like I said, there's probably a couple of main categories of option strategies. There's two types that I classify them as. There's simple strategies and then complex strategies. Simple strategies would be things like long calls and long puts, short calls and short puts, covered calls and covered puts. Complex strategies would be things like credit spreads, debit spreads, calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, iron butterflies, iron condors, straddles and strangles and the reason that they're a little bit more complex is because they require multiple option contracts in many cases to create the specific payoff diagram that you're looking for. Now, option strategies are also further divided into two broad categories of risk, risk defined strategies and undefined risk strategies. Again, one of the great things about options trading is that you have the ability (if you choose) to define your risk on a particular trade. If you want to make a trade on a particular stock and you want to know for sure how much money you could make or lose, you can create a defined risk spread trade and control your position size. Likewise, you can also create undefined risk strategies that allow you the opportunity to potentially generate higher levels of income on a more consistent basis, but you will take on a little bit more risk. These strategies would include things like straddles and strangles or short calls and short puts.

Now, as always, we suggest that you back-test all of your option strategies to make sure that whatever strategy you ultimately end up choosing generates enough income for your account or performs the way you want it to. You can do this right through our software here at Option Alpha. If you just search the back-testing software on our toolbox, we can give you the ability to back-test any option strategy that you want out there and again, test out the strategy before you actually put your hard-earned money at risk. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#349 - Can My Covered Call Get Assigned Early? Sep 06, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to answer the question, "Can my covered call get assigned early?" The simple answer to this is yes, it can get assigned early. I want to walk through the possible scenarios in which case, you might be assigned early on your covered call option which would then take away the stock that's basically covering that call option. Now, there are probably a couple of scenarios, but the most likely scenarios that would happen include short dividend assignment. What we talk about with short dividend assignment is that if a stock is going to pay a dividend and if the stock has been rallying much higher or dramatically higher and is about to pay that dividend, that might be an instance where your short call option gets assigned early on your covered call position and the reason would be if the dividend payment is actually more than a corresponding put option to your short call option. And in those scenarios as we've discussed in other examples on the website, what would happen is that the long option buyer would exercise their contracts, collect the dividend and then use that dividend payment to then immediately buy put option protection which basically gets them back into the same synthetic long call option position that they had originally. Again, one of the instances where you could be assigned on your covered call is if your call option is in the money and the corresponding put option to your call option is worth less than the dividend being paid.

Now, another instance where you could be assigned early on covered calls is just generally when the call option starts approaching expiration and it's in the money. Now, what you'll want to watch out for is the extrinsic value that's left in the covered call. If you have an option contract that's in the money, but you're far out from expiration, there's probably a very little chance, almost no chance that that call option is assigned and it's because the contract that you have still has a lot of extrinsic or time and volatility value baked in. As you approach expiration, most of that time value or that volatility value starts to decay away and the option starts trading more in line with the underlying stock. And so, for that reason, as we get closer to expiration, if you notice that the extrinsic value of your option contract starts to whittle away and is down say under $.5 or so, you're probably more at risk of assignment. Again, it doesn't mean that initially, if your call option goes in the money, you'll be assigned automatically. It's more likely to be assigned closer to expiration if the option is still in the money. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, please let us know and until next time, happy trading.

#348 - Put/Call Parity Finally Explained Sep 05, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to discuss put/call parity and we're finally going to explain it for you guys hopefully here very quickly. The idea behind put/call parity mainly resides with European-style option contracts. This is opposed to American-style option contracts which really don't ever reach put/call parity because they have the ability to be exercised ahead of expiration. But European-style options are only exercised at expiration, so you can find instances where the put/call parity actually exists in the contracts.

Now, what happens is that in I guess, very simple terms, when you reach put/call parity, it's basically the point at which the option contracts that you're trading are trading almost identical or identical to the underlying asset. What you typically see with an option contract say that has a Delta of 80, that means that the option contract is going to perform like 80 shares of stock. It's not going to be like 100 shares of stock which is ideally what the option contract controls, but it's not going to perform like that. If the option contract starts to move its Deltas closer to one and negative one, then it basically starts acting like you would already have long or short of the underlying asset or futures contract or index. And so, that's what happens, is that the put and the call options become in parity with the underlying asset and so, one is basically the same as the other. There's no real difference. Now, if there was a difference to be gained, maybe the put contracts had a differential between the calls and the stock or the call options and the stock was different than the actual put contracts, you could probably entertain some arbitrage strategies, but those are probably far and few between.

I wanted to explain this, so you guys understand it. In our case for a lot of the American-style options that we trade here at Option Alpha, when you see an option contract go really far into the money, I'll start even mentioning that it's trading closer to parity. It's trading closer to what the actual underlying asset would be. Although some people get really I guess, nervous when they get assigned stock, in many respects, if they have a deep in the money option, it's basically acting like stock already, it's just now they actually have the physical stock in their control. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let us know and until next time, happy trading.

#347 - Should You Buy Stocks Near Their 52 Week Low? Sep 04, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to try to answer the question, "Should you buy stocks near their 52-week low?" Again, this is another question that was submitted from somebody via email. You can always submit your questions via email to us or just leave us a question at optionalpha.com/ask. Either one works well. But basically, the person was just wondering – "Hey, look. If I'm going to get into a stock and I want to invest for long-term, should I actually buy stocks that are at their 52-week low or should I try something else?" My general opinion on this… And I haven't seen too much conclusive research out there, so if you have research and you want to send it over, please send them over to us. I want to take a look at it for sure. But the general research that I have seen out there is that when you generally buy stocks at their 52-week low, it's not as good as if you're actually buying them closer to their 52-week high. And so, this might be a little bit counterintuitive, but when you buy stocks near the upper end of the trend or a breakout, it's actually more likely that the stock may actually continue to rise in price.

Now, stocks that are at their 52-week low doesn't mean that they can't be a bargain in some cases. But generally, what we see is that when you buy say ETFs or funds that are near their lows or have poor performance, those end up working out better in the long run. Now, that's a combination of different securities. It's not one individual security in and of itself. It's a basket of securities or an index or an ETF put together. Most of those funds when you see them fall out of favor end up outperforming the funds that are in favor during that same time period. When it comes to stocks versus a fund or an ETF or an index, the rules might be a little bit changed. Again, if you're buying stocks in and of themselves, individual equity names, then you might be better off buying at maybe say closer to the 52-week highs or something that's on an uptrend versus something that could be falling off the table and dropping dramatically. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let us know and until next time, happy trading.

#346 - The Ultimate "Quick" Guide To Day Trading Rules Sep 03, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, I want to go through our ultimate quick guide to day-trading rules or what's commonly referred to as pattern day-trading rules or PDT rules. The idea behind these rules are basically the way for an industry or a broker to put in place some sort of adopted principles that prohibit people from being pattern day-traders or day-traders without having enough capital to support that. Now, I think it's a little bit confusing because sometimes people think that if you make a bunch of trades on the same day that you're automatically classified as a pattern day-trader, but that may not be the case. The actual rules may differ from broker to broker, but the general consensus is that if you are entering and exiting the same security four to five times in the next course of four to five business days, then that may trigger some alerts in your broker system that would tag you as a pattern day-trader.

Now, the key here is that you are buying and selling the same security in the same day. You would have to buy stock and then immediately sell stock that same day and you'd have to do that type of activity multiple times over the course of a business week for you to really be tagged as a pattern day-trader. Now, this also means that if you are entering a lot of trades on one day, but you are not necessarily closing out of those trades the same day, then that won't trigger any pattern day-trading rules or requirements. Now, what happens is when you are triggered or tagged as a pattern day-trader, you then must have a minimum equity balance of in many cases, $25,000 on the day that you actually establish those day-trades. What the industry is trying to do is again, make sure that people who are trading very quickly in the market have enough equity and enough capacity or collateral to cover a lot of their trades or their activity.

Now, as options traders, what we do here at Option Alpha is we do have a lot of activity every single day, but we are not day-traders, nor are we pattern day-traders. We enter a lot of trades, but our trades are 40 to 60 days out which means that although we might have five or six opening orders in one day, we will not immediately go back around and close those orders the exact same day. We'll wait a couple of weeks to close trades or we'll let our auto-trading software close trades for us. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any questions on this, let us know and until next time, happy trading.

#345 - Want Proof Warren Buffett Is An Options Trader? Sep 02, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha. Welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be answering the question, "Do you want proof that Warren Buffett is an options trader?" I've often talked about at nausea, the fact that Warren Buffett, one of the biggest all-time investors is actually in secret, a very big options trader. In fact, he sells a lot of single option put leg contracts on equity indexes, etcetera. And what he states in a lot of his writings is that the implied volatility edge that's present in option selling is very much the same as his insurance businesses that he owns. And so, I challenge people all the time to look this up yourself. I'm going to walk through today where you can actually find this information. It's very easy to get to. Not a lot of people actually do it which is what actually baffles me all the time, is they challenge me on this, but then they don't actually look it up, so I'm going to show you guys how you can get to it very easily here today on the podcast. Now, before I do that, what I want to do is try to get your help also. I've been trying for years now to get Warren Buffett either on the podcast or in person to do an interview on how he does options trading. And I know it's going to be an uphill challenge, but what I want to see is if you guys can tweet or send messages or emails to him or his company for us to get him on the podcast and just simply talk about how he thinks about options trading. Most people in the media, when they talk to Warren Buffett, it's always about the new long-term buy and hold investments that he has, but they rarely if ever, talk about short option contracts that he's selling. In fact, he's selling billions and billions of dollars of them. And so, I want to be the first. I would encourage you or ask you to help out, please, in trying to get him on the podcast. You can tweet at him. You can send a message, write him a letter. Do whatever you need to do. We've been trying for years now to get him on and I think it would be awesome.

The first thing to do to find out where proof is of Warren Buffett's options trading is just to go to Berkshire Hathaway's website and from there, you can click on the annual reports and then from there, you can click on the quarter that you want to look at. Now, it's filed since they have continues short option contract exposure, it's basically any of the last like eight or so years. I think it actually goes back almost 10 years now that you can see a lot of these and you can just click on any one of these quarterly reports. The one I'm using today is the second quarter report for 2018 because the third quarter report is not quite out yet. Now, when you open up this PDF, what you can do is hit CTRL and F on your keyboard and then just search the words, put options and that will then go through all of the different documents and all of the different pages and find the first and a couple of instances where he actually mentions index put option contracts and you can read those sections. In the 2018 second quarter report, it's under note 13 for derivatives contracts and what he says is he says that "We are parted to derivative contracts primary through our finance and financial products and these equity index put options were written with a total basis in the notional millions as follows. And so, he list out where the liabilities are in the equity index put options and where the notional values of these contracts are. In many cases, the liabilities on these contracts and the values are obviously much different than where he sold these options at because the markets have gone up and that's good, so good for him. But an interesting note is that actually in the second quarter of 2017, he actually lost money in equity index put options. That's at least how they calculate in determining their fair value because they're a little bit illiquid for the size that he's trading. But in many respects, he's made a lot of money selling put options. In the second quarter of 2018, he made $372 million for Berkshire Hathaway selling put options. Like I said, he's one of the largest index option sellers out there and still, nobody talks to him about it, nobody asks him about it. I think it's crazy that one of the biggest investors of all time who's running out of timeline here, for us to be able to interview him is actually one of the biggest option sellers.

Hopefully this helps out. Like I said, I encourage you to go through and start investigating some of these traders that are out there. What we're doing here at Option Alpha is nothing different than what some of the largest, smartest investors of all time are doing as well. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#344 - How Support Can Become Resistance or Vise-Versa Sep 01, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha. Welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be answering the question, "How can support become resistance and vice versa?" In many classical options trading and stock trading programs, one of the first things that you may learn in a system is to read charts and to try to find levels of support and resistance. Now, many of you guys also know that I'm a big… I don't know. I'd say skeptic of chart reading because I think chart reading leads to many different interpretations. I could show somebody a particular stock chart and they could draw support and resistance lines completely different than the next 10 people that I show that same chart to. There's a lot of interpretation here, a lot of I think perspective that get drawn into many chart patterns and support and resistance levels.

But leaving all that beside, the concept behind support and resistance basically becoming floors and ceilings in stock charts I think is something that has more validity than other things in the charting world. The reason that we see support become resistance and vice versa is because at those levels on a chart, that's when we see the most aggressive buying and selling. Let's just take a quick example and I'll try to visually walk through this here on the audio. It's a little bit harder to do since we're doing a podcast, but I think you'll get the concept. But let's say we have a stock that's rallying and the stock is starting at $100, rallies up to $105 and then comes back down to $100 and rallies off of that level. Now we know that that 100 strike level seems to be a pretty good support level. The stock has gone up to 105, it's come back down to 100 and it's basically stopped falling at 100 and then rallied from there. The reason that it becomes a support level theoretically is because a lot of people came in and thought that that was a good value to then buy up the security and basically cover all of the short interest and then cover it enough, so that it starts to actually make the stock regain some momentum higher. This idea is that we have a lot of volume in there, a lot of people coming in and buying stock at 100.

But now, let's say that the stock rallies only up to 103 and then starts falling and immediately crashes through the 100 supposed support level that we have. It trades all the way down to 95 and then trades back up to 100, but does not breach. In fact, it doesn't breach it. It starts actually then going back lower. The idea here is that once the stock has crashed through a support level, it may come back up and retest or re-challenge that support level and it will now act as resistance. Now, the reason it acts as resistance in theory is because when the stock reaches back up to that 100 strike, a lot of people who have been holding stock at 100 and seen the stock go up and down in value and basically make money and then lose money, might be more willing to basically cut their position off with no gain, no loss, basically zero-sum credit. If I'm holding stock at 100 and I see it go all the way up to 103 and then go all the way down to 95, if it comes back up to 100, I might be just fed up with it, impatient and done and basically put an order in that says, "Hey, look. If the stock ever gets back to 100, sell my shares." And so, that's where we see a lot of this old-time support become new resistance because people are not willing to hold through it or they're just placing orders in the market to liquidate their stock position, again, at no gain, no loss, basically zero-sum. That's how it works. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any more questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#343 - How To Minimize Short Exposure When Trading Aug 31, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be talking about how to minimize short exposure when trading. I think there's really two types of short exposure and I want to just clarify as we go through today's quick little podcast. The first type of short exposure is directionally short exposure, so the idea that you're basically directionally trading bearish, most people call it shorting stock. Although we don't ever deal with stock directly here at Option Alpha unless we're assigned, we can trade positions bearish or short, so hoping that the position goes down in value or the underlying asset goes down and we build a strategy around that. That's the first type of short exposure. The easy way to get around that or to minimize your short exposure is just to naturally trade things that are bearish as well in your portfolio or trade things that are more neutral in directional bias. And so, it doesn't mean that you can't trade things with a bearish assumption. I trade them all the time. It's just you have to counterbalance that with something that's a little bit more neutral. If you're going to be bearish on one thing, try to be bullish on something else or neutral on something else, so that you don't have a ton of one-sided directional risk.

The other style of short exposure that we have to minimize is I think short exposure to option contracts. When a lot of people talk about minimizing their short exposure, they're really worried about naked option selling where you're selling puts or selling calls naked, doing some combination of naked options trading which in many cases, leads you open or it leaves you vulnerable to large moves that could have a dramatic impact on your P&L. The easy way to mitigate or kind of minimize the short exposure when you're trading options is to simply define your risk and what I mean by that is that if you are going to trade short contracts and you don't feel comfortable yet trading naked or single leg option contracts, then go ahead and create those spreads that define the risk in the position. For example, if a stock is trading at $100 and you want to sell a 105 call option, you may not feel comfortable with all the risk that's associated with doing that. And so, you might want to go out and then buy a 110 strike call option. It's a little bit more of a premium to do that and a little bit less net credit on the position, but creating that 105, 110 call spread basically eliminates the long or short end exposure for the option contract and gets you into position that has defined risk and defined profit. It's very easy to do. You just have to again, define the risk. That means in many cases, going out and buying long option contracts on either end. As always, hopefully this helps out. If you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#342 - Does Unsystematic Risk Matter Anymore? Aug 30, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be answering the question, "Does unsystematic risk matter anymore?" First, let's read a description of unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk is a unique specific risk to a company or industry. That's also known as nonsystematic risk or specific, diversifiable or residual risk in the context of an investment portfolio. Unsystematic risk can be reduced through diversification. The idea around this is that if you have two different companies, say McDonald's and Apple, you can pretty much diversify most of the risk away from owning those companies by investing in other companies that are non-correlated to Apple and McDonald's, maybe a utility company, maybe an oil and gas company, a financial services company. There's a lot of ways that you can diversify around it. The question that everyone is asking though is, "With the advent of indexes and a lot of these ETFs, should it matter what unsystematic risk is still present in the market?"

I think the answer to this question is of course, we should because even though we can diversify away from most of the unsystematic risk in the market through a portfolio or a basket of ticker symbols whether you're trading stocks or options, it's still really important to position size accordingly because of the recent big moves that we've seen in even some of the bigger ETFs that cover entire countries and their markets. Recently, we saw EWZ, RSX, EWY… A lot of these ETFs have made major overnight moves, in some cases, 15%, 20% down which represents an entire market or an entire industry moving down and having a massive systematic risk impact on the rest of the portfolio or in many cases, the global economy. I think that unsystematic risk is being put to the back table because many people think it's easily diversified out of with a lot of these ETFs and investment indexes, but the underlying truth is that most of these ETFs and indexes are still made up of real companies. And so, if that basket of ticker symbols or companies that the ETF is tracking or investing in is still made up of something that carries a lot of unsystematic risk, then that's not necessarily a good thing.

I think it's something that we have to keep an eye out always with what we do here at Option Alpha as far as options trading. I always like to keep a diversified basket of tickers. In fact, just the other night as I was going through the weekly strategy call with elite members, we talked about adding some tickers to our portfolio that had lower implied volatility than other things that we had on our watch list, but the reality is that adding those tickers would add a little bit more diversity to our portfolio. And so, we weren't going to keep cramming in a bunch of high IV tickers into our positions if we already had five or six different positions already and similar or related ETFs. Instead, we're going to try to diversify things out. Even though it might mean trading something with a slightly lower implied volatility rating, I think the diversification benefit of doing that is far greater than trying to pigeonhole ourselves into one industry. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#341 - The Cyclical End Of Index Investing Is Near Aug 29, 2018

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be talking about why I believe that the cyclical end of index investing is near. In fact, I think it's probably pretty close. Maybe a couple of years out at the most, I think that this market is going to spell the top four index investing and something else will evolve and kind of transpire out of the markets, potentially more of an active automated thing as far as what the next big thing is in the market. Now, for one minute, just try to remove yourself from being overly-emotional when I say this because I know that immediately when you saw the title of this podcast or even started this podcast, you might think to yourself, "No way. No how. This guy is absolutely insane. He's crazy. Index investing is the only way to go. There's no way that you could do anything different." But for one minute, just maybe take one step back and think about it from a different perspective and I'll offer up this logic over the last let's say two examples of what might have worked before ended up not working in the future moving forward. There are two examples I want to go through and I think this will define what index investing is right now. It's just undercover and it's very subliminal right now. It's subconscious to a lot of people, but the reality is it's actually happening. Ask any real quant fund manager. This is happening in the real market.

The first example I'll give you is the bitcoin phenomenon and bubble that we just went through at the end of 2017. Now, everyone knows now (hindsight) that bitcoin was a massive bubble at that time. Now, could bitcoin continue to move higher in the future? Maybe. Sure. I have no idea. But during that time period where we saw bitcoin run-up to maybe what was it? $20,000? I don't even know what it was, $20,000 per bitcoin. We saw the workings of the same mechanics that we see right now in the index investing and those mechanics are as follow. If I buy bitcoin with basically this hope and dream that bitcoin has value which we know people bought much higher than where the value is now, if there is value now because it's just continuing to move lower, but if I bought bitcoin, my only hope was that somebody would come in and pay a higher price than what I was willing to pay. This whole idea of this greater fool's theory. There's a greater fool out there that will buy bitcoin at a higher price and then that person thinks somebody will buy bitcoin at an even higher price. The people who bought near $20,000 per bitcoin obviously thought or whether they thought it or whether their actions basically spoke the words and that is "Somebody is going to buy this at a higher price, therefore it's a deal." But the reality is that at some point, fundamentals and actual value comes back around and what we actually saw in bitcoin is that that ended up collapsing very quickly. And so, the last year or so, bitcoin has been terrible and you don't even see it. I mean, Google search trends are down, nobody mentions it. CNBC used to have a bitcoin ticker in the bottom left-hand corner of the screen. That magically disappeared as well. We don't even see this anymore. And so, the under-spoken or like underlying truth here is that at some point, value comes back and people have to judge things off of value especially when we're talking about long-term equity play as investments. It comes back down to value. What we saw in 1997, 1998, 1999 heading into the dot com bubble was the exact same thing. It was just in a different market. And so, we saw it during the dot com bubble, is that people were paying all of these insane valuations for startups and internet companies based on this wild expectation that companies could grow into infinity. Now, of course, some survived and some lasted naturally, but a lot of those crashed and burned because at some point, a greater fool basically was the last ending string of potential greater fools and then value kind of self-corrected. We've all been through those scenarios. If you haven't been through them, please go back and research them because it's really important.

But what we're in right now is very much an undercover type of greater fool theory and I challenge you to prove me wrong on this. But in many cases, there are a lot of people who are investing in index funds and ETFs where all they are doing is taking all available cash and continuously buying up the indexes. Now, at some point, this works really well. But at one point, there's going to come a time and I think we're very close to that time, where all people are doing is just blindly investing in the indexes, just investing in the indexes because that's what I'm "supposed to do" because that's the right move. And so, whether they think it or not, consciously or subconsciously, all they are doing is becoming the greater fool. And as the markets continue to go higher, it sucks in more people near the top that more people start index investing because that's the best thing to do and all they're doing is just buying because that's what they do. And what we see right now is we see forward PE ratios on the S&P 500, some of the highest levels we've seen, reminiscent of all the recessions and depressions that we've seen historically. We've done videos on this on Facebook. You can search our Facebook account. We show these things to you guys. And it's because people are just blindly buying up the indexes. Now, at some point, the indexes and these fundamentals are going to correct because if everyone was right, everyone would be rich and right now, some people are rich, but not everyone. And so, the end of index investing I think is going to come to an end in the very near future and we're going to look back on this and be like, "Man. Maybe we should have some sort of active money management strategy in place." Fool me once in the dot com era, fool me twice, okay, now you should've learned your lesson in 2007, 2008, but fool me a third time and now, people are going to I think dramatically change their paradigm and how they invest. I think it's going to move towards more of an active management style. I think it's going to move towards more of a shorter duration style versus these long-term index plays. They played out really well and everything plays out really well until it doesn't. Hopefully it's been helpful. Like I said, hopefully I look back on this podcast maybe a year, two or three years now and say, "I called it." I thought that this was going to happen. I truly believe that it's the next one to pop. And I don't know when that's going to happen. I'm not going to say it's going to happen tomorrow or next week or next year. But at some point, it's going to correct and at some point, valuations are going to come back down to where they should be and I think that that's going to be really hard for a lot of people, that pill to swallow. As always, hopefully this helps out. If you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

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