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    Business

    The Breakdown

    The Breakdown dives into the deepest topics in crypto, blockchain, and the macro forces shaping markets and power structures. Each episode breaks down complex ideas into clear, grounded analysis — separating signal from noise across crypto, finance, and geopolitics.

    Hosted by David Canellis, The Breakdown features explainers, interviews, and conversations with the people building, regulating, and challenging the financial system.

    A Blockworks podcast.

    Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

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    Copyright: © All Rights Reserved

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    Latest Episodes:
    6 Things Jobless Claims Tell Us About the State of the Real Economy Jun 19, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • Powell says private companies shouldn’t be involved in Central Bank Digital Currencies
    • According to former NSA head John Bolton, Trump told Mnuchin to go after Bitcoin
    • Interest around Compound driving speculation around a DeFi-driven bull run

    Our main topic:

    This week’s U.S. jobless report brought bad news. Whereas economists had expected new claims to fall to 1.29 million from 1.57 million the week before, claims fell just 58,000 to 1.51 million.

    Continuing claims fared even worse. Economists predicted these claims would fall 600,000+ to 19.9 million. Instead, they fell a tenth of that - 62,000 - to leave total continuing claims at 20.5 million.

    In this episode, NLW breaks down what we can learn from these numbers when they’re combined with the previously released May jobs report.


    The Satoshi-fication of Social Media: Why The Future Is Pseudoanonymous, Feat. The Crypto Dog Jun 18, 2020
    Show notes

    On the Brief:

    • Big tech vs. the American political right and left
    • Why TikTok users are pretending to love China for clout
    • Decentralizing venture capital

    Our main conversation:

    The Crypto Dog is one of crypto Twitter’s best known characters. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

    • Mining bitcoin in 2011
    • The difficulty of hodling across a decade
    • The emergence of the crypto trader in the Ethereum era
    • Trader agnosticism
    • Pseudo-anonymity and social media
    • Developing the character behind the avatar
    • Global nomadism and the acceleration of “work from anywhere”
    • The vibe and feel of Hong Kong today

    Find our guest online:Twitter: @TheCryptoDog


    The Fed's Folly: From Moral Hazard to Business as Usual, Feat. Jesse Felder Jun 17, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on The Brief:

    • An unexpectedly good retail sales report drives market confidence
    • Are we in for a second wave of white-collar layoffs?
    • The latest rumblings in central bank digital currencies

    Our main conversation:

    Jesse Felder is an independent financial analyst and one of the best financial curators on Twitter.

    In this wide ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

    • The Robinhood rally and what makes it both alike and different from previous manias
    • The illusion of American recovery and the disconnect between markets and fundamentals
    • The Federal Reserve’s role in increasing economic inequality
    • Why the dollar is significantly overvalued relative to other currencies
    • Why financial assets could be poised for a rough decade

    Find our guest online:

    • Twitter: @jessefelder
    • Website: The Felder Report

    Sorry, Bloomberg: Here Are 6 Reasons Why 2020 Is a Great Year for Bitcoin Jun 15, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • Stocks down on coronavirus fears
    • Demand destruction
    • The looming retirement crisis

    Our main theme:

    Bitcoin is up more than 30% on the year. After a crash alongside equities, it has proved incredibly resilient. There are famous new entrants to the space like Paul Tudor Jones II.

    So how can a Bloomberg editor argue the year has been bad for bitcoin?

    In this response podcast, NLW argues that most of the arguments are about narrative, not the underlying fundamentals. He presents six reasons why not only has it not been a bad year, but the exact opposite is true:

    • Demonstrated institutional uptake
    • Demonstrated resilience
    • New champions
    • Narrative fundamentals
    • Need in emerging markets
    • End of economic orthodoxy

    BONUS: Rubbish Rallies and Investor Amnesia by the Finance History Guy Jamie Catherwood Jun 15, 2020
    Show notes

    After a week where bankrupt Hertz pumped 890%, the question is: what is the historical precedent?

    Luckily, we have finance history guy Jamie Catherwood to fill us in. In this essay "Rubbish Rallies" (written by Jamie, read by NLW), Catherwood tells the story of an 1820s scam that turned into an 1860s market mania - even though everyone knew it had been a scam the first go around.

    History might not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

    This is a bonus episode of The Breakdown, recorded originally last week as part of a private beta test for new content forms. If you like this type of episode, let me know @nlw on Twitter.


    The Chad Index Versus Doomer Internet Money: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 13, 2020
    Show notes

    The stock market has long been disconnected from the underlying economy, but much of what happened this week - particularly the pumping of bankrupt company stocks - suggests that something new is afoot.

    In this episode, NLW breaks down three long-term trends suggested by the so-called Robinhood Rally, including:

    • The “insurgency” aspect of a generation of young professionals who are willing to play the financial game rather than have it be played for them
    • A totally new force in financial media, which could hit like a wrecking ball in one of the stodgiest, traditional media industries
    • An embrace of a certain type of cynicism or nihilism when it comes to the values of financial markets

    This week on The Breakdown:

    Monday | Why War Reporting Is the Right Mental Model for Today’s Media, Feat. Jake Hanrahan

    The founder of Popular Front joins NLW for a discussion about protests, media and how the people being covered tend to not reflect divisive politics.

    Tuesday | What the Stock Market’s ‘Robinhood Rally’ Means for Bitcoin

    The largest 50-day rally in stock market history and even shares of bankrupt companies are up more than 100%. What is going on?

    Wednesday | A Vision for Digital Property Rights, Feat. Nic Carter

    Most people today look at social platforms like any other private company, but what if we saw them as alternative jurisdictions with a new set of property rights?

    Thursday | Why the Fed Keeps Denying Its Role in Increasing Inequality

    The Federal Reserve expects low inflation, says rates will stay close to zero through 2022 and keeps lying about the role of central banks in increasing inequality.

    Friday | Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge

    While fears of a “great monetary inflation” have driven the recent bitcoin narrative, other aspects like censorship resistance and peaceful protest matter just as much.

    Saturday | The Chad Index Versus Doomer Internet Money: The Breakdown Weekly Recap

    This week, the wildest, most nonsensical, volatile part of the market wasn’t bitcoin, it was the “Robinhood Rally” in equities.


    Avoiding the Narrative Trap: Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge Jun 13, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • Why bitcoin sold off
    • A bank-the-unbanked narrative for the digital dollar
    • It’s Dave Portnoy’s world and we’re all just living in it

    Today’s main topic: Why inflation isn’t the only bitcoin narrative that matters.

    When bitcoin’s halving coincided with the most aggressive central bank policy of all time, it set a clear narrative framework for bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. This was captured by people like legendary hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones, who warned of a “great monetary inflation.”

    In this episode, NLW argues 1) that inflation could be a dangerous narrative to focus on too closely due to a number of countervailing deflationary forces, and 2) there are a variety of other narratives that are just as important to bitcoin, including:

    • Censorship resistance
    • Seizure-resistant asset
    • Currency controls and reshoring
    • Nations looking to escape USD system
    • Independent banking
    • Peaceful protest

    Why the Fed Keeps Denying Its Role in Increasing Inequality Jun 12, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • Three Arrows holds more than 6% of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
    • New platform for censorship-resistant blogging
    • Coinbase announces new token potentials as anti-surveillance hodlers flood out

    Today’s main topic: Why the Fed keeps denying its role in inequality

    Some key takeaways from yesterday’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting:

    • Interest rates are likely to stay near zero through 2022
    • Unemployment anticipated to average between 9% and 10% during last three months of 2020
    • Economy expected to contract 4% to 10% this year
    • No specific discussion of yield curve control
    • Inflation expected to be 1.0% this year and 1.5% in 2021, lower than Fed target of 2%
    • According to Chairman Powell, inequality has nothing to do with Fed policy

    On this episode, NLW recaps the above and dives deeper on two of the points:

    • Net inflation stats gloss over specifics, including food prices that have been rising at an annual rate of 17.5%
    • The Fed’s pronounced role in exacerbating inequality by propping up artificially high asset prices, effectively locking low and middle income households out of the mechanism for economic advancement

    Bitcoin, Property Rights, and Why the Old West Says You Should Own Your Socials, feat. Nic Carter Jun 11, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • A record week for peer-to-peer exchanges in the developing world
    • A digital dollar gets discussed in Congress
    • Previewing the Federal Reserve’s FOMC guidance

    Our main topic: A brainstorm on digital property rights

    Here’s a radical idea. What if by virtue of the fact that you had put so much time and effort into building a following on social media and filling that following with content you had legal claim to and distinct property rights around your corner of social media platforms?

    It’s wild in the context of today’s terms of service, but has significant legal precedent in the world of physical land.

    In this new type of deep-dive 20-minute episode we’re calling a “Breakdown Brainstorm,” Castle Island Ventures investor Nic Carter looks at:

    • The two schools of thought around digital property rights
    • The historical precedent for squatter’s rights
    • What the specific example of the USA’s Westward Expansion can teach us
    • Why this type of approach can be highly economically generative, according to economists like De Soto
    • How John Locke’s theories provide a moral basis for the argument
    • Why today’s platforms are akin to anti-democratic feudal lords
    • How bitcoin provides a model and a mechanism for digital rights enforced on the protocol level rather than by a state or other external actor

    Find our guest online:Twitter: @nic__carterWebsite: niccarter.info


    What the Stock Market’s ‘Robinhood Rally’ Means for Bitcoin Jun 10, 2020
    Show notes

    Today on the Brief:

    • Saudi Arabia injects $13 billion in bank liquidity via blockchain.
    • China’s state TV CCTV says Binance is still allowing crypto trading in China.
    • MakerDAO community greenlights real world collateral.

    Our main topic: The “Robinhood Revolution.”

    The next time someone tells you crypto markets are too irrational or volatile, point them to stock markets right now.

    • The largest 50-day rally in history
    • Every S&P 500 stock up from 10 weeks ago
    • Multiple bankrupt companies up more than 100% since they declared bankruptcy

    This is the “Robinhood Revolution,” as a horde of day traders are outperforming billionaire investors and commanding the stock market narrative.

    This episode looks at:

    • Who is this new generation of investors
    • Why they’re so active right now
    • What they’re betting will go up
    • Why they don’t care about earnings, balance sheets or any other fundamentals
    • Four scenarios for how this rally could have an impact on the bitcoin and crypto industry

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