The Breakdown

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**The Breakdown**

The Breakdown dives into the deepest topics in crypto, blockchain, and the macro forces shaping markets and power structures. Each episode breaks down complex ideas into clear, grounded analysis — separating signal from noise across crypto, finance, and geopolitics.

Hosted by David Canellis, The Breakdown features explainers, interviews, and conversations with the people building, regulating, and challenging the financial system.

A Blockworks podcast.

Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

Latest Episodes:

A Primer on the Eurodollar and Shadowbanking System [Long Reads Sunday] Jun 28, 2020

Show notes

The latest Long Read is "Crypto Dollars and the Evolution of Eurodollar Banking" by Avi Felman and Max Bronstein.

This piece covers:

The Dollar Milkshake Theory
Why the demand for the US dollar remains so high
Why demand for dollars is increasing rather than decreasing
What "eurodollars" are
What the shadow banking system is
How eurodollars and shadow banking contribute to USD demand
How stablecoins and cryptodollarization could create demand for crypto

Welcome to the Groundhog Day Economy (PS, It Sucks) - The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 27, 2020

Show notes

As states shutter economic activity because of preventable COVID-19 outbreaks, it’s deja vu all over again.

This is a movie we’ve seen before:

Rise in what could have been preventable COVID-19 cases
A call for shutdowns (plus voluntary closures)
Rampant politicization of health and economic issues rather than common sense approaches
Persistent jobless claims plus new layoffs
Wall Street nerves turning into new Federal Reserve and Treasury action

Rinse, repeat, economy!

How Monopolies Sow the Seeds of Their Own Destruction, Feat. Tuur Demeester Jun 27, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

A consumer spending rebound
A new crypto regulatory regime in Europe
A bitcoin warning from a famed investor

Our main discussion:

Tuur Demeester is the managing partner of Adamant Capital, a bitcoin investment firm that earlier this year published “The Bitcoin Reformation.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The four preconditions for a reformation, and how they apply today
How hyperinflation contributed to the French Revolution
Why inflation is becoming a more significant threat today
How bitcoin memes function like unifying doctrines from past revolutions
Why millennials could be the Greatest Generation 2.0

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @TuurDemeester

On the web: Adamant Capital

Is Scam Selling Suppressing the Price of Bitcoin? Jun 26, 2020

Show notes

Today’s edition of The Breakdown is an extended version of the Brief, this time covering five topics.

New Jobless claims - sticking stubbornly at ~1.5 million new claims per week, despite economist expectations
The “whack-a-mole” economy - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers predicts as much as 30% of the economy may need to close to get COVID-19 under control
PlusToken scam pressure on BTC price: Has scam selling suppressed the price of bitcoin since early last year?
Biggest ever bitcoin option expiry; more than $1 billion in notational value BTC options are set to expire tomorrow, Friday, June 26
Apple’s UX privacy triumph: Users will have to opt-in to allow apps to track them across other apps as well

Bull vs. Bear: Who Has the Economy Right? Jun 25, 2020

Show notes

The economy is nothing if not confounding right now.

Across every domain, from real estate to oil to retail, there are bull signals and bear signals.

In this episode, NLW looks at those signals in the following areas:

Markets - strong stock recovery vs. growth in cash deposits
Employment - growth in jobs vs. persistent continuing jobless claims
Retail - growth in foot traffic vs. demand destruction
Oil - growth in demand (but not in economically productive diesel)
Real estate - surge in mortgage applications vs. worst home sales since 2010
Dollar - declining confidence vs. there is no alternative
COVID-19 - reduced death rates in the U.S. vs. growing caseload

What’s the answer? Is this just a narrative mirage recovery? Listen and find out.

Oil 101: How Easy Money Enabled the Shale Revolution, Feat. Tracy Shuchart Jun 24, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

PayPal and Venmo reportedly adding crypto buying and selling
Trump executive order temporarily suspends H1-B visa program
Continued growth in bitcoin derivatives

Our main conversation:

Tracy Shuchart is an oil- and commodities-focused trader in the private equity space known for her wide-ranging insights on financial Twitter (FinTwit).

In this conversation, she and NLW discuss:

Why the shale revolution of the last 10 years shifted the power balance in global energy among the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia
How easy money in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis enabled the shale revolution as much as new technology
Why after the 2014-2016 oil crash it was inexperienced private equity firms that picked up where banks left off with shale
How a growing focus on dividends and cutting costs was creating structural problems for shale even before the COVID-19 crisis
How COVID-19 coincided with a contentious negotiation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that ultimately sent prices to less than $0

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @chigrl
On the web: chigrl.com

Macro Investors Sound Off! Featuring Ari Paul, Spencer Bogart and David Nage Jun 23, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

New Federal Reserve research suggests reaction to Facebook’s Libra basket approach was overblown
Italian Banking Association pushing to test a digital euro
U.S. housing has worst month since 2010

Our main conversation:

Earlier this month, Messari hosted the Mainnet virtual summit. At that event, NLW moderated a session called “Macro Investors Sound Off!” featuring BlockTower Capital’s Ari Paul, Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart and Arca’s David Nage.

The discussion included:

The evolution of the Fed put and how it shapes the markets
How the collision of Bitcoin’s halving and the Fed’s reaction to COVID-19 created a powerful narrative moment
Why the “Money Printer Go BRR” meme was so effective
Why the Paul Tudor Jones letter was hugely influential within family offices
Why these investors expect to see some significant announcements around bitcoin exposure from traditional investors in the months to come

Find our guests online:

Ari Paul: @AriDavidPaul

Spencer Bogart: @CremeDeLaCrypto

David Nage: @DavidJNage

Watch the rest of Messari’s Mainnet 2020 sessions.

Fight the Fed or Love the BRRR? [Long Reads Sunday] Jun 21, 2020

Show notes

A reading of two pieces

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Money Printer

by Jill Carlson | CoinDesk

Fight the Fed

Jesse Felder | The Felder Report

A Dozen+ Statistics Proving Millennials Are F%#$&D: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 20, 2020

Show notes

The big narrative in financial media for the last few weeks has been the insurgent Robinhood rally, led by the AC/DC-blaring Pied Piper Dave Portnoy, owner of Davey Day Trader Global Global (DDTG Global).

As people try to make sense of the strange retail trading phenomenon, one perspective is the participants (average age of 31 on Robinhood) are reacting to a market that has left them behind. In this view, they are assaulting the market with otherwise outrageous and ludicrous strategies because, otherwise, how will they get their piece?

This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap looks at this in the context of some surprising (and frankly depressing) stats about the millennial generation’s current wealth, as compared to where boomers were at the same time in their careers.

Why Monetary Debasement Is Here to Stay, Feat. Dr. Vikram Mansharamani Jun 20, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

FTX lists two Compound tokens
Reddit partners with Ethereum Foundation on Layer 2 scaling
Black-In Freedom Festival reimagines Juneteenth

Our main topic:

Dr. Vikram Mansharamani is a lecturer at Harvard and author of “Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst” as well as the just released “Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence.”

In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Why our relationship with experts and expertise is leading us astray
How COVID-19 shows the downside of both over-reliance on, and complete rejection of, experts
How the economic crisis surrounding COVID-19 is bursting bubbles and moving us from a period defined by deflation to one defined by inflation
Why “monetary debasement is here to stay”
Why the U.S.-China relationship is the key backdrop for understanding the next 10 years of global economic reality
Why inequality threatens the fabric of our economy and our society, and what might be done about it

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @mansharamani
Website: Vikram Mansharamani | “THINK FOR YOURSELF”

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