The Breakdown

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Lyn Alden on Money Printing, Bitcoin and the End of an 80-Year Debt Cycle Nov 25, 2020

Show notes

Today’s guest is Lyn Alden. Lyn is the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and one of today’s best-known and most-respected macro analysts. In this conversation, she and NLW discuss:

Anti-deflation vs. inflation
Why money printing is nonpartisan
Why we’re headed for deeper MMT experiments
How she increased her conviction around Bitcoin (her journey in memes)
Why the beginnings of a new, post-Bretton Woods era are starting to show

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @LynAldenContact

Website: lynalden.com

A Bitcoin Shortage? PayPal and Cash App Buying More Than 100% of New Supply Nov 24, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

AstraZeneca and University of Oxford release third positive COVID-19 vaccine trial data
Trump administration ratchets up pressure on China
Another DCEP lottery trial coming

Our main discussion: a narrative shift, growing attention and a bitcoin shortage.

What happens when demand exceeds supply and supply is being gobbled up aggressively by new market actors? That’s the question posed by Pantera’s recent investor letter and today’s Breakdown episode.

NLW also looks at:

The reappearance of bitcoin (BTC, +1.08%) in mainstream media, like today’s Wall Street Journal
The rise of celebrities coming out as HODLers
BlackRock’s CIO suggests bitcoin could replace gold for many

Bitcoin ETF Time? What SEC Chairman Jay Clayton Stepping Down Means for Markets Nov 22, 2020

Show notes

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Joe Nocera’s recent Op-Ed “Clayton’s Exit at SEC Opens Door to Protect Investors” from Bloomberg.

NLW expands upon the piece, discussing Clayton’s legacy in crypto and how a Biden economic team might impact the space.

What Do Mexico's Second Wealthiest Billionaire and Arya Stark Have In Common? Nov 21, 2020

Show notes

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW discusses:

Traditional markets: The tension between vaccine optimism and a growing national wave of economy-disrupting lockdowns
Regulatory landscape: Crypto ally Brian Brooks nominated for full term at OCC while SEC Chair Jay Clayton steps down early
Bitcoin Miners: Sold out until Spring
Celebrities and Financiers coming to the Bitcoin space

https://twitter.com/Maisie_Williams/status/1328428879334297600

https://twitter.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1328850136290775041

10 Metrics Where Bitcoin Has Already Hit New All-Time Highs Nov 21, 2020

Show notes

Earlier this week, investor Nic Carter published a piece called “Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs” showing just how far bitcoin had come and how fundamentally bullish this quiet run-up was.

In this piece, NLW goes over those metrics that have achieved all-time highs, and adds one more that happened after Nic published his piece. The metrics include:

Addresses with a balance of $10 or more
Open interest on CME bitcoin futures
Realized capitalization
Bitcoin options open interest
Bitcoin priced in Turkish lira
Bitcoin held by Grayscale
Stablecoin free float
Silvergate’s settlement network
Growth of crypto-native credit
Market Capitalization

A Crypto Ally as Top US Bank Regulator? Nov 20, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Markets fight to remain optimistic
Jobless claims rise for the first time in five weeks
China borrows at negative rates for the first time

Our main discussion: a crypto ally as top bank regulator?

Brian Brooks was an executive at Coinbase when he was tapped by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to be the number two at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s main bank regulator. Within two months he was acting Comptroller and now Brooks has been nominated for a full term.

In his short tenure, he has given banks the OK to provide custody of crypto and banking services to stablecoin issuers. In so doing, he has aroused the ire of congressional Democrats, who have accused him of acting too quickly and unilaterally on crypto.

In this discussion, NLW breaks down Brooks’ time at the OCC and asks whether he’s likely to be confirmed before the next administration early next year.

Vijay Boyapati’s Four Mental Models for Valuing Bitcoin Nov 19, 2020

Show notes

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move.

In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO: Why This Bull Market Will Be Different Nov 18, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Tesla to join S&P 500
Airbnb files for IPO
The Mooch wants crypto

Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO.

The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Bitcoin at $318,000 Next December? One Citibank Exec Says It’s Possible Nov 17, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Moderna trial success drives markets up
New all-time high in negative-yielding debt
Jay Clayton to leave SEC

Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021?

That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.

Dollar Decline and the Paralysis of Conventional Monetary Policy Nov 15, 2020

Show notes

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

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