The Breakdown

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**The Breakdown**

The Breakdown dives into the deepest topics in crypto, blockchain, and the macro forces shaping markets and power structures. Each episode breaks down complex ideas into clear, grounded analysis — separating signal from noise across crypto, finance, and geopolitics.

Hosted by David Canellis, The Breakdown features explainers, interviews, and conversations with the people building, regulating, and challenging the financial system.

A Blockworks podcast.

Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

Latest Episodes:

A ‘Santa Claus Rally’ for the Stock Market? Dec 05, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Payrolls report underperforms expectations
Spotify looking for crypto director
Lame-duck crypto legislation on the way?

Our main discussion: Will we see a “Santa Claus rally” this year?

This kind of rally refers to the fact that in about two-thirds of years since 1969, late December has seen a stock market rally, averaging a 1.4% gain.

This year, vaccine optimism combined with new stimulus seems poised to once again jingle Wall Street’s bells. A piece in Bloomberg, however, provides five charts and reasons why this market rally is already overbought and overblown, so this year might be more coal than eggnog.

Why Stablecoins Are the First Battleground of the Coming Crypto Regulation Wars Dec 04, 2020

Show notes

On Wednesday, three U.S. congressional Democrats announced the STABLE Act, an 18-page bill that would require, among other things, stablecoin issuers to acquire banking charters, get approval from the Federal Reserve and hold FDIC insurance.

The bill’s authors claim stablecoins represent a continuation of the shadow banking system that preys on poor communities. The crypto industry argues this overly burdensome would not only stifle innovation but ensure the only players in this new space are the deep-pocketed fintechs with the resources for compliance.

In today’s episode, NLW argues this is more than just another bill that will go nowhere in Congress, it’s the opening salvo of a new set of arguments that will define the next face of regulatory battles for the entire crypto industry.

Josh Brown on Bitcoin’s ‘Respectability Rally’ and Why We’ll See Dow 100,000 in Our Lifetime Dec 03, 2020

Show notes

Josh Brown is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is also the host of “The Halftime Report” on CNBC, author of the “Reformed Broker” blog and host of “The Compound Show” podcast.

Most recently, he is the author of “How I Invest My Money: Finance Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend, and Invest.”

In this fun and freewheeling conversation, Josh and NLW discuss:

Why financial advisers give a lot of advice but don’t actually share their personal strategies
What’s driving bitcoin’s “respectability rally” (Read more here)
Why we should be excited about, rather than worried for, the new generation of Robinhood traders
Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 100,000 in our lifetime

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @reformedbroker

Why a $631B Asset Manager Just Changed Its Mind on Bitcoin Dec 02, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Libra is now “Diem”
Christine Lagarde comes down on private stablecoins
Dow closes its best month in 33 years

Our main discussion: AllianceBernstein changes its mind.

Yesterday, CoinDesk received access to a private client research report from AllianceBernstein, a global investment giant with more than $631 billion in assets.

In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW reads excerpts from the memo and discusses:

Why, in discussing supply, it conflates bitcoin and other cryptos but still finds limited supply “for all practical purposes”
Why prevailing macro political conditions – particularly the growth of government’s role in business and individual lives – shifted the investment firm’s calculus
Why its greatest long-term concern is government banning something that is actively hindering the application of monetary policy

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: What Happens Next? Dec 01, 2020

Show notes

On this historic day, NLW looks at bitcoin’s punching through its previous December 2017 all-time high. Specifically, he looks at:

How different people benchmark the all-time high
What drove the latest price action, including the prospect of new investment from institutional asset management giant Guggenheim
Why historian Niall Ferguson is arguing bitcoin has won the COVID-19 monetary revolution
Why macro giants including Raoul Pal, George Gammon and Ben Hunt got into disagreements with Bitcoin Twitter about how co-opted by the state and Wall Street bitcoin is likely to become

How Bitcoin Gets to $100,000 Nov 29, 2020

Show notes

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin.

In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.

What Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary Means for Bitcoin and Markets Nov 28, 2020

Show notes

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at what was an absolutely action-packed holiday week.

He discusses:

Bitcoin’s price action
The Dow’s 30,000 psychological milestone
Eth 2.0 cleared for Beacon chain launch
The implications of Janet Yellen’s nomination for Treasury secretary

ENCORE: Luke Gromen on the History and (Declining) Future of the Global Dollar System Nov 27, 2020

Show notes

One of the most significant macroeconomic questions facing the world is what the future of the global reserve system, dominated for the last 80 years by the U.S. dollar, holds.

Today’s episode is a replay of NLW’s epic conversation with macro analyst Luke Gromen from April 2020. In it, Luke discusses the entire history of that U.S. dollar system, including:

Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than John Maynard Keynes’ idea for a non-sovereign “bancor” world reserve currency
The move to the petrodollar in the 1970s
The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s
The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended
How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street
The export of Treasury bills as a business model
The economic fallout of 2008 globally and domestically
The end of Treasury bill buying in 2014
Why the Federal Reserve is the only sugar daddy left

Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

Schmuck Insurance: Chamath Palihapitiya's Prescient 2013 Argument for Bitcoin Nov 26, 2020

Show notes

When NLW asked Crypto Twitter for recommendations of the best way to convince friends and family about bitcoin and crypto, one of the ideas was to review old articles that have stood the test of time.

With that in mind, NLW today reads Chamath Palihapitiya’s May 2013 piece for Bloomberg, “Why I Invested In Bitcoin.”

Even among prescient early pieces, this one is particularly salient.

The Most Bullish Bitcoin Arguments for Your Thanksgiving Table Nov 26, 2020

Show notes

Today’s Breakdown is a prep kit for the inevitable conversations about bitcoin as friends and family sit down at the Thanksgiving table this year.

NLW discusses arguments ranging from price action to who is buying to why they’re buying to good old-fashioned supply and demand. He leaves with one big conclusion:

If there was ever a year to discuss bitcoin, this is it.

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