Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

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Ep. 1676: Dr. Doom or Dr. Boom Jun 30, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom tear into the lunacy of financial predictions—starting with famed doomsayer Nouriel Roubini suddenly turning optimistic (is that a good sign or a terrifying one?). Then it’s onto Ron Baron and his wildly volatile, high-fee Barron Partners Fund, which beat the QQQ—barely—by taking massive concentrated bets on Tesla and SpaceX. Finally, they answer listener questions about portfolio diversification, international exposure, and outrageously overpriced 401(k) fund options (Nationwide, we’re looking at you). It’s a full-on roast of Wall Street’s ego-driven nonsense with a side of smart, actionable advice.
0:04 Predicting markets is impossible—so why do people still listen to those who try?
1:50 Dr. Doom (Nouriel Roubini) turns into Mr. Boone—predicting good times ahead
3:35 Roubini blames AI and nuclear fusion for his new optimism
4:57 Don’s rule: All predictions are a prehistoric brain trap
5:20 Ron Baron and his Partners Fund—poster child for active management hype
6:41 Nearly half the fund is in two holdings: Tesla and SpaceX
8:44 From $10K to $6.5K in 6 months: the cost of extreme concentration
9:47 Expense ratio: 2.25%—with $7.5B in assets? Outrageous
10:54 Why high-flyer funds are built to crash hard, too
11:39 Investing in Barron = trying to beat the market (and probably failing)
13:14 Lost 43% in 2022—twice the S&P’s loss
13:48 But in 2020? Up 150%. Thanks, Tesla
14:51 Listener Q: Army major wants to clean up his Roth portfolio
16:10 Don and Tom: Scrap the mid-cap clutter—go global with VT
17:59 Listener Q: New job, horrible 401(k) fund choices—can he still contribute?
19:03 Nationwide’s 93-basis-point index fund sparks full-on Don rant
20:14 High fees vs. tax breaks: what wins?
21:31 Why the financial industry is addicted to greed
22:11 Appella’s no-pressure offer to review your portfolio
23:04 Don’s publisher’s clearinghouse FaceTime scam story
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Ep. 1675: Question Time with Tom & Roxy Jun 27, 2025

Show notes

Tom welcomes Roxy Butner back to field listener questions on retirement income, Roth vs. traditional 401(k) choices, car financing math, leftover 529 rollovers, and bond price confusion. Listeners hear sharp, practical advice on optimizing savings and withdrawals—without slipping into tax traps. Plus, a shoutout to the record 401(k) savings rate and a surprising mini-lesson on estate planning trends.
0:05 401(k) savings rates hit a new high—why 20% total savings should be your goal
2:40 Roth vs. Traditional 401(k) for younger investors—Roxy makes the case
3:57 Listener Q: Early retirees managing withdrawals across brokerage, Roth, and IRA accounts
6:36 Tax bracket management vs. withdrawal strategy—how to stay in the 24%
8:38 Roth conversions and RMD prep—why to think now about later taxes
9:41 Why DIY retirees still need a second set of eyes on their plan
10:25 Listener Q: What to do with $16K left in a 529 plan
11:24 529-to-Roth rollover rules and strategy
12:31 Listener Q: Pay cash for a car or finance at 1.9%?
13:58 Emotional vs. mathematical car finance decision-making
15:11 Listener Q: Got 6/7 on FINRA quiz—why do bond prices fall when rates rise?
17:36 Bond basics: duration, rate risk, and quality
17:53 Roxy’s real-world client trend: surge in estate planning questions
18:54 Free portfolio analysis plug and Roxy’s parting thoughts
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Ep. 1674: Behavior Beats Brilliance Jun 26, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Don and Tom dive into a revealing YouGov survey that shows Americans might not be as overconfident as we thought—except when it comes to trustworthiness, loyalty, and… mechanical skills? The guys unpack what this means for investors, especially the surprising gaps between men and women in self-perception. Then they outline the traits that actually do make for above-average money managers—like patience, discipline, and optimism—before answering a pair of strong listener questions about asset allocation in retirement and Social Security survivor benefits.
0:04 Kicking off with confessions: Americans may not be as overconfident as we thought
0:35 Only 26% think they’re sexually above average? Really?
1:34 The weird areas where Americans do think they excel: loyalty, ethics, critical thinking
2:40 Self-deception vs. actual financial behavior
3:04 The gender confidence gap and investing implications
4:40 How much of success is really just luck?
5:47 Personal luck stories and the randomness of life
7:13 Men think they’re funnier and more intelligent—survey says…
7:54 Back to money: Only 42% think they’re above-average money managers
8:47 Traits that actually matter in investing: patience, risk management, discipline
10:59 Goal setting, diligence, and why optimism pays
12:23 Confidence is lower than expected—and women may be better investors
13:44 Who really dances at weddings?
14:04 Q&A: Cindy’s $250k hobby account and what to do with it
17:57 Rebuilding a diversified portfolio around AVGE and BND
20:21 Q&A: Survivor benefits and claiming strategies for couples
22:41 What a surviving spouse actually receives from Social Security
24:50 Live from the lake? Maybe. Tech permitting.
25:46 Free advice and fart coin fallout
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Ep. 1673: Can't Have Everything Jun 25, 2025

Show notes

Don tackles the dangerous myth of “safe” high-yield investments, calling out misleading financial advice around covered call funds and non-traded real estate deals. He takes calls on 529 plans vs. UTMA, long-term care insurance pitfalls, robo-advisors for special needs planning, and a shady pitch for a fixed-indexed annuity disguised as a fiduciary recommendation. He ends with a birthday shoutout and a reminder of why good advice matters.
0:04 Greed and the myth of “safe” investments
1:27 Human desire for more with less risk—prime for exploitation
3:02 The illusion of safety: high-yield savings vs. riskier “alternatives”
3:50 Covered call funds are not safe—Don’s own experience
4:42 Non-traded real estate and price illusion
5:22 Financial Flinch Reflex PSA
6:23 How to call the show and why listener questions matter
7:36 529 vs. UTMA for a newborn + Fidelity Zero Fund vs. FSKAX
10:44 529s can convert to Roth IRAs—huge benefit
11:15 Long-term care insurance: costs, limitations, and reality checks
13:57 Hybrid LTC policies: gimmicky, commission-driven
16:34 Premium examples: $5K to $10K/year for minimal coverage
17:53 Funding a disabled daughter’s future using Schwab Intelligent Portfolio
19:50 Dollar-cost averaging lump sums? Don says no—invest now
21:12 Don on vacation guilt and cheap travel habits
22:24 529s owned by a trust—yes, and Utah’s My529 gets Don’s stamp
24:25 More trust pros and Utah’s fee/vehicle advantages
25:42 Listener wary of FIA pitch for TSP rollover—Don smells fraud
27:48 The match, the cap, the “no annuity” claim—Don calls B.S.
29:24 How to verify if someone’s actually a fiduciary
32:43 Why fixed-indexed annuities dodged SEC regulation
34:05 The real reason they’re pushing 70% of your money into an FIA
36:00 Listener calls just to wish Don happy birthday
37:32 Don thanks his audience and reflects on why he keeps doing this
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Ep. 1672: Gold Medal Worthy? Jun 24, 2025

Show notes

Don flies solo from Florida while Tom continues his Euro-tour, tackling the deep flaws in Morningstar’s mutual fund and target-date fund ratings. He skewers their cozy relationship with high-fee fund companies and explains how commission-based funds keep getting top honors while cheaper, investor-friendly alternatives like Vanguard are buried down the list. Don also fields live calls about asset allocation, inherited IRA distribution rules, Roth IRA contribution strategies, and the all-too-real pain of annuity surrender charges—some as high as 12.5% in year one.
0:04 Don opens solo—Tom’s in Germany—and reflects on aging and the Maytag repairman
1:05 A brief history of Don’s 40+ year career in financial media and advice
3:05 Praise for Morningstar’s data, but heavy criticism of its ratings system
5:04 Morningstar’s bias: high-fee target-date funds getting gold medals
9:12 American Funds ranked above Vanguard despite massive commissions
11:01 Don breaks down absurd rankings: T. Rowe, PIMCO, J.P. Morgan all above Vanguard
13:37 Morningstar’s “medal” approach ignores cost—key to long-term returns
14:34 When paying more makes sense (hint: not fund fees)
16:41 Why commissions offer zero investor value
18:24 Share class shell games: A-shares vs. C-shares deception
20:40 Call: AVUV vs VT allocation—Don recommends 10% in AVUV
23:43 Weather sarcasm, caller hesitation, and the “Seattle call effect”
25:16 Tease: Surrender charges on annuities—what you don’t know can cost you
27:09 Annuities: “safe”… but how safe is 12.5% surrender in year one?
29:35 Call: 43-year-old saving $2,400/year in a Roth and wants to do better
32:39 Don’s advice: open an outside Roth, invest in VT, and take the risk quiz
34:39 Call: Inherited IRA RMD rules—Don corrects a past mistake
37:07 Why inherited IRA rules are a legal labyrinth—CPA strongly advised
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Ep. 1671: Low Risk Fantasies Jun 23, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom expose the seductive illusion of “wealth without risk” by dissecting the explosion of equity-hedged ETFs and mutual funds. They tear into the high fees, low returns, and false promises sold by funds claiming to protect investors from market drops while capturing the upside. With support from recent Wall Street Journal coverage and AQR data, they explain how these “hedging” strategies—especially options-based ones—often underperform simple stock/bond portfolios. Listener questions tackle Roth conversions, AVGE vs. GLOV, and the myth of magical investing pills.
0:04 Investing dreams and chocolate dreams: both come with a price
1:31 Wall Street sells “protection” from volatility—Americans are buying
2:37 Hedged funds as “stock insurance”? More like expensive illusions
3:57 Comparing VOO to PHDG: 13% vs. 4.3% returns
4:54 Downside protection claims fall apart under scrutiny
6:18 Lower volatility, far lower returns—does it help you sleep or retire?
7:34 How these funds work: options-based “protection” explained
8:48 Options decay and premium costs crush performance
9:56 Simpler is better: most “safety” funds fail to beat basic stock/bond mix
11:03 5-year S&P 500 returns: mostly up, and up a lot
11:50 Hedged funds underperform in up years—and still lose in down ones
12:22 Hidden costs in options-based funds aren’t in the expense ratio
13:30 Bottom line: no panacea, no magic. Just smart allocation
14:05 Investor responsibility: no one will protect your money but you
14:12 Listener Q&A intro and apology for delay
15:05 Backdoor Roth vs. regular Roth when income is uncertain
16:59 AVGE vs. GLOV: performance vs. philosophy
17:55 GLOV’s returns look good—but it’s far less diversified
19:21 Passive label vs. reality: GLOV is focused, possibly active
20:38 Short track record makes comparisons tricky
22:04 Don and Tom favor massive diversification over short-term wins
23:42 Set expectations low and you’ll be pleasantly surprised
24:49 Ask us anything—and yes, crypto guy left another bad review
26:02 Crypto is “generational”? Maybe, but Don still won’t use money he can’t spend
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Ep. 1670: Fast Paced Friday Jun 21, 2025

Show notes

CORRECTION: During the 13:45 caller, I gave erroneous advice on the withdrawal rules for an inherited IRA. Given that this was his father’s IRA, he is not eligible to wait until the end of the 10-year period. So he will need to distributions and, then, make a charitable gifts. -Don
Don tackles a stack of listener questions in this rapid-fire Friday Q&A, covering what a financial plan should cost, how tipping might work in a cashless future, and how to fine-tune a retirement portfolio with Avantis funds. He also addresses important estate planning steps after a death, how to use QCDs with inherited IRAs, and whether AUM fees are worth it compared to hourly planners. Along the way, he reflects on why he still manages his own money—and maybe shouldn’t.
0:04 Intro to Friday Q&A and how listener questions are selected
2:12 What should a detailed retirement plan cost? Median price range explained
4:33 How will we tip in a cashless society? From bellboys to Bitcoin to Apple Pay
7:39 Listener portfolio check: 85% AVGE, 10% AVUV, 5% AVDV—too tilted?
11:36 Credit after death: Should an executor notify the credit bureaus? Yes—and how
13:45 Inherited IRA RMD workaround: Can QCDs help avoid taxes before age 70½?
17:02 AUM fees vs. flat-fee advisors: Is paying more for more assets fair?
25:51 Why Don still manages his own money (for now)—inertia, taxes, and habits
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Ep. 1669: Math Over Models Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dive into the human obsession with prediction—especially in finance—and why models fail us more than they help. They dissect the CAPE ratio, Fama vs. Shiller, and why “knowing” the market is a fool’s errand. Listeners also get lessons on ETF pricing myths, market cap misunderstandings, SEP Roth IRAs (spoiler: they’re basically unicorns), and whether dad deserves a gift or just more responsibilities.
0:04 We crave certainty—even though our money brains are terrible at prediction.
1:01 Wall Street’s models exist to soothe our fear of the unknown.
1:34 “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — CAPE ratio vs. the real world.
2:39 Shiller vs. Fama: You can’t time the market, even with a Nobel.
4:51 Why diversification, risk-based equity premiums, and low fees beat predictions.
5:24 Models work… until they don’t (hello, Phillips Curve).
7:02 Why the inflation-unemployment link broke after 2000: China changed the game.
8:26 Let’s admit it: You cannot accurately and consistently predict the future.
9:14 Call from Catherine: Why Schwab ETF prices are “low” (spoiler: stock splits).
11:31 Price per share means nothing. Market cap is what matters.
13:04 Berkshire never split its stock—why it’s $731K a share.
14:24 Apple vs. Berkshire vs. Microsoft: Market cap is the real metric.
16:32 Why the Dow is dumb (and would be even dumber with Berkshire in it).
17:49 Listener Q: Where to park $450K before a home purchase? (Hint: not bonds.)
18:29 High-yield savings accounts are still the best move.
19:53 Father’s Day preview: Don rants about dumb gifts and ungrateful kids.
21:19 Kiplinger’s list: 5 ways dads can teach money lessons (cue sarcasm).
24:06 Allowances, budgeting, and tax talks with kids—realistic or fantasy?
25:28 Roth IRAs and investing lessons for teens: what actually works.
27:45 Why teaching kids to pick stocks is a dangerous myth.
29:38 “Graduation fund” idea: simple global ETFs like AVGE or DFAW.
30:43 Yes, your kids might move back in. Yes, it’s happening again.
32:13 Listener Q: Can you open a Roth SEP IRA? (Short answer: not really yet.)
33:54 One firm offers it… but it’ll cost you $500/year and it’s shady.
35:20 Final caller: Are there any annuities we do like? (Answer: the shortest show ever.)
36:34 Program note: Tom gone for 2 weeks, Don wants your calls (or sympathy).
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Ep. 1668: Home Bias Harm Jun 17, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom tackle the behavioral trap of “home bias” in investing—why U.S. investors tend to overinvest domestically and why it’s dangerous. They compare global fund allocations across countries, poke fun at nationalist investing instincts, and explain why international diversification is essential. Listener calls cover early Social Security regret, 72(t) withdrawals, covered calls on Palantir, and what happens to target date funds after they “expire.”
1:52 Home bias explained: Americans (and Australians) overweight U.S. stocks
2:58 U.S. vs global stock market value debate
3:42 Fund companies pander to investor bias
4:14 Vanguard Australia fund: 42% Aussie stocks?!
5:25 Why home bias hurts—Australia’s 25% bank exposure
6:26 Dimensional and Avantis global tilt: 70% U.S.
7:52 Long-term global diversification reduces volatility
8:17 The 2000s: Global funds outperformed U.S. funds
9:21 Call: Donna in AZ – Regret over early Social Security filing
11:29 Don confesses he took his at 69: “I’m weak”
12:02 Donna’s still in great shape—no panic needed
13:04 Timing Social Security: Only critical if it’s most of your income
14:45 Emotional investing vs logic—why home bias persists
15:51 Japan: Home bias disaster, zero returns since 1990
16:07 Call: Kyle in TX – 72(t) withdrawals and bond reluctance
18:21 Tom explains why bonds matter when pulling from a shrinking stock portfolio
19:51 Call: Jason the Tesla Bull – Covered calls on Palantir
21:15 Covered call mechanics explained
23:14 Don’s 1980s crash story: When covered calls fail
24:14 Covered calls appeal to greed, often backfire
25:20 Palantir’s PE ratio? Try 1,058—yikes
26:30 Meme stocks vs megacaps: Palantir’s government dependency
27:05 Call: John in OH – Fidelity fee confusion update
28:16 John’s advisor can’t see the same statements—sus?
30:32 Make sure to bring statements and get written answers
31:29 Don’s birthday, Father’s Day gripes, and Twain wisdom
32:22 Call: Elizabeth in SC – What happens to a 2010 target date fund?
33:37 Vanguard 2010 funds merge into 70/30 “retirement income” fund
35:14 Performance? ~5% annualized—above inflation
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Ep. 1667: Stock Picking Trap Jun 16, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom take aim at one of the most persistent investing mistakes: owning individual stocks. With humor and sharp skepticism, they explore why investors—even those who say they follow the show’s advice—still concentrate wealth in a few companies like Apple, NVIDIA, or their employer’s stock. Referencing Jason Zweig’s Wall Street Journal column and legendary research from Bessembinder, they show how dangerous, emotional, and often delusional this strategy really is. From Washington Mutual to VF Corp, the history of single-stock implosions is long and painful. Plus, they field smart listener questions on business loans, Roth conversions, and hummingbird beak evolution. Yes, really.
0:04 Why owning individual stocks is more like gambling than investing
0:58 Zweig’s column and stories of extreme stock concentration
1:42 Real investors with 30%+ in just a few stocks
3:00 “I only own Apple”—the emotional traps of stock picking
5:02 Washington Mutual: faith in the familiar turns to loss
6:44 The VF Corp disaster and foundations behaving badly
8:43 No one rings a bell before your stock collapses
9:49 Stock picking risks: underperformance and default
10:22 Don’s infamous four-stock “diversified” portfolio (spoiler: zeroed out)
11:48 Emotional attachment to companies vs. logic
12:27 Top justifications for owning individual stocks—and why they’re bogus
13:40 “It’s money I can afford to lose” (No, it’s not.)
14:51 Owning your own business ≠ owning a stock
15:20 Risk in entrepreneurship is different—but still real
16:18 Listener question: Pay cash or borrow to buy a high-return business asset?
18:02 Don and Tom strongly favor using business cash over loans
19:11 Why even 40% returns are no guarantee
20:39 Hummingbirds evolve to match human feeders (seriously!)
21:34 Listener Q: Convert old 401(k) from Mutual of America to Roth IRA?
23:20 Why you should probably roll that 401(k) out—fast
23:33 Joke time: The silent P in pterodactyl
24:32 Don’s mental age… remains in the single digits
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