Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

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Ep. 1696: The End of ETFs? Jul 30, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom dive into the latest crypto chaos, pushing back against Ric Edelman’s bold prediction that ETFs will vanish within five years due to tokenization. They explain why that claim is both misleading and premature. Callers ask about tax shelters disguised as life insurance, sketchy “Tax Act 2020” gimmicks, trust issues with advisors, and the realities of Roth conversions and the pro-rata rule. They also revisit the case for holding Bitcoin—and why it’s still mostly a speculative play, not a currency. As always, the tone is skeptical, the advice is candid, and the laughs are real.
0:04 The investing world is full of nonsense, and it’s our job to help you navigate it.
1:11 Vacation shaming and industry cynicism: Who’s out to mess with your head for money?
2:06 Ric Edelman’s latest: ETFs will vanish in 5 years due to tokenization. Really?
3:15 Explaining blockchain and why it’s not replacing ETFs anytime soon.
5:14 Tokenization = new gimmicks, more “opportunities” to come for your money.
6:47 Appella ad: FFR—Financial Flinch Reflex. Side effects may include peace of mind.
7:48 Why tokenized securities are still a regulatory mess waiting to happen.
9:04 Caller Karthik: Insurance guy pitching Code 7702 “tax-free income” plan. Nope.
10:29 Explaining how life insurance gimmicks really work (and why they’re awful).
11:39 Karthik’s “Tax Act 2020” pitch = tax shelter scam with distressed bonds.
13:00 Don’t fall for tax-first pitches. Build a plan, not a loophole.
14:31 Most financial pros aren’t fiduciaries—skepticism is essential.
16:01 “Don’t trust until you verify.” Reagan said it. So did we.
16:49 How to ask questions: phone, email, voice recordings.
17:48 Caller David: If Bitcoin is hoarded, how can it be useful?
18:59 Answer: Greater Fool Theory. Crypto is speculation, not utility.
20:38 Bitcoin has finite supply… but still doesn’t work like a true currency.
22:08 Bitcoin’s two real uses: speculation and shadowy transactions.
23:15 For Bitcoin to be a true currency, it must be widely accepted. It’s not.
24:48 Caller Ellen: Trust issues with her advisor—she feels ignored.
25:30 She pays 1%, holds Schwab ETFs, and gets canned responses.
27:27 Communication is key. Cost may be fair, but service is falling short.
28:42 Good advice starts with you, not a pitch. Her guy sounds like an AUM chaser.
31:39 Advisors matter in retirement too—good ones prevent dumb mistakes.
32:55 Ellen asks: do fees still make sense once I start withdrawing money?
34:44 Caller Bill: Confused about the pro-rata rule for Roth conversions.
36:24 Quick pro-rata explainer: if your IRA is mixed, you pay taxes proportionally.
37:10 If you’re willing to pay tax on the full amount, IRS is fine with that.
38:36 “Just 86 the whole thing” – don’t sweat a few grand in basis from 1987.
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Ep. 1695: Why So High? Jul 29, 2025

Show notes

Despite lousy headlines—tariffs, weak earnings, flat revenues—the market keeps climbing. Don and Tom explain why trying to guess the “why” behind short-term moves is a fool’s errand, and why global diversification (including those long-shunned international small caps) is paying off. Listeners call in with smart, complex questions: million-dollar leftover 529s, the viability of the Hagerty Index for collectibles, catastrophic long-term care insurance, and a 401(k) loan vs. credit union loan for home repairs. The show wraps with heartfelt praise, a Mitch Albom-inspired moment, and confirmation: yes, listeners are thinking differently—and smarter—about money.
0:04 Market’s up, headlines are down—why? No one knows, and that’s the point
1:15 The caffeinated squirrel rally and your brother’s market anxiety
2:55 The market looks ahead—it’s not reacting to the news you just read
5:12 Global diversification pays off: international small cap value shines
7:20 Caller: Million-dollar 529 leftovers—can kids gift unused funds to parents?
11:46 Most impressive 529 balance ever? Don and Tom are stunned
12:08 Caller: Classic car prices collapse—HAGI Index and collectible declines
15:19 Watches, comics, wine, art—all taking hits. Even Beanie Babies.
16:03 Caller: What’s the timeline after submitting a financial plan request?
19:00 Tangled web of accounts—Brooke (aka Sherry) needs a full portfolio untangling
20:42 Don’s family vacation: heat, pools, and a surprising Disney dinner treat
22:03 Disney Springs’ Boathouse = #2 grossing restaurant in the U.S.
23:19 Caller: Long-term care worries and catastrophic coverage that doesn’t exist
25:30 Hybrid insurance pitches: Why you should be skeptical
29:54 The reality of LTC premiums and why investing might be the better route
30:03 A Mitch Albom moment: A caller’s touching message on the power of good advice
31:57 Caller: 401(k) loan vs. signature loan to fund $8K home repair
35:51 Caller: 2 years cancer-free—celebrating health and financial proactivity
36:58 Caller: What’s the ideal retirement savings multiple by age 60?
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Ep. 1694: Can't Stop Progress Jul 28, 2025

Show notes

Don takes a fiscal detour into the world of AI, introducing his ChatGPT co-host “Cath” in a strikingly lifelike discussion about the future of jobs, the role of artificial intelligence in our lives, and how we can adapt to massive changes already underway. The episode blends curiosity, caution, and practical insight—with a historical twist that ties today’s tech upheaval to the Luddite resistance of the 19th century. It’s a deeply personal, slightly spooky, and forward-looking edition of Talking Real Money.
0:04 Don opens solo and explains how AI (Cath) became his creative partner
1:20 What ChatGPT is, how it works, and how Don uses it for image creation
4:21 AI and the threat to human jobs—especially white-collar roles
5:16 Is creativity really safe from AI disruption?
6:31 Which U.S. jobs are most at risk (customer service, admin, legal, finance)
7:30 Why current AI customer service sucks (and why Cath doesn’t)
9:05 How young people can future-proof their careers through skills and mindset
10:15 Education technology as a “human + AI” job model
10:33 Hands-on and empathetic jobs that AI struggles to replace
11:47 The difference between mimicking and actually being intelligent
12:06 Specific industries most ripe for AI displacement
13:15 AI’s surprising takeover of journalism and nonfiction writing
13:52 Should we be alarmed by how fast AI is replacing human tasks?
14:55 AI 2027 report: Doomsday prediction or useful wake-up call?
16:22 Ethical concerns, adversarial use (like China), and global AI regulation
17:36 What kids (and grandkids) can do now to stay ahead of AI disruption
18:06 Should we still teach coding if AI can write code?
18:56 Is GPT-4.0 helping write GPT-5.0?
19:40 How AI voices became so eerily realistic
20:46 Ways everyday people can use AI subscriptions for personal growth
22:07 Do users own what they make with AI? (Yes)
22:31 Did AI “steal” the content it was trained on?
23:58 Final thoughts: from Luddites to large language models—adapt or get replaced
26:21 A call for thoughtful oversight and a little healthy skepticism
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Ep. 1693: Question Day! Jul 25, 2025

Show notes

Don flies solo for another Question-and-Answer Friday (not Freaky Friday… despite Hollywood’s best efforts). Listener questions cover everything from Roth IRA choices for young investors to tax loss harvesting and reducing portfolio volatility with bond allocations. Don breaks down the pros and cons of popular ETFs, explains the benefits of tilting toward small and value, and gently guides a listener away from a pricey Fidelity fund. He also reaffirms that tax loss harvesting is a two-account job and urges investors to rebalance based on total portfolio risk—not just account type.
0:04 Don rails against yet another Freaky Friday reboot
0:58 Why diversification beats chasing past winners like VTI or VONG
3:41 Small-cap and value tilt: the long-term case
4:45 Why international stocks still matter (volatility control > return chasing)
5:58 Bond options in a 401(k): FXNAX vs. stable value vs. combo
6:59 Should you count brokerage and HSA balances in your allocation mix?
8:20 Stable value is not "guaranteed" value—what you need to know
10:09 Can you tax-loss harvest in two different brokerage accounts? (Yes!)
12:51 FBGRX: Not terrible, just suboptimal. Here’s what to do instead
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Ep. 1692: The Value of Rethinking Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom explore the value of changing your mind in the face of new data—financial and otherwise. Sparked by Christine Benz’s recent Morningstar piece, they reflect on how their own views on DIY investing, target date funds, and even TIPS have evolved over time. Listener questions cover annuity taxes, Bitcoin inflation claims, covered call ETFs, and whether CDs beat bond funds in retirement. Grumpiness levels: elevated but entertaining.
0:04 Flexibility in finance: Why it’s okay to change your mind
1:16 Christine Benz says she’s rethinking the DIY retirement approach
2:48 The underrated value of real financial advice (Vanguard Alpha)
3:51 Why advice matters more in retirement than during accumulation
5:36 All-in-one funds like target date strategies get a new look
6:41 Trick: Adjust your target date fund based on risk tolerance
7:47 Target date glide path flattens at retirement (~50% stock)
8:24 TIPS funds vs. laddering: Christine’s third “meh” shift
9:53 Equities = effective inflation hedge; tips may be redundant
10:29 Don’s personal changes: Target date funds and 4% rule flexibility
12:07 Vanguard survey: Advisors = peace of mind + time savings
13:23 Money and emotion: #1 cause of murder and divorce
14:57 Listener Q: What to do with a low-cost deferred annuity at Fidelity
17:09 Stop obsessing over who pays taxes—spend and enjoy
19:20 Listener Q: Bitcoin vs. dollars—why price comparisons fail
20:07 Bitcoin isn’t a currency. It’s just volatile
20:31 Listener Q: Are JEPI/JEPQ “safe” for dividends? Nope
22:04 Covered call ETFs carry hidden risks and higher costs
23:50 Listener Q: Why use bond funds instead of CDs or money market?
25:03 Bond funds vs. CDs: risk, return, and long-term expectations
27:08 Don’s rant: Stop trying to game the system—good enough is good enough
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Ep. 1691: 60/40: Down, Not Out Jul 23, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom defend the long-maligned 60/40 portfolio, diving into a 150-year Morningstar study that reveals its lower volatility and emotional survivability—even if it underperforms an all-stock portfolio over time. They tackle fixed indexed annuities head-on, debunking the myth of market returns without risk, citing high commissions, surrender charges, lack of liquidity, and poor transparency. Several listener calls highlight confusion over annuity strategies and Roth vs. pre-tax retirement contributions, including a deep dive from a New York City teacher juggling pensions, 403(b)/457 plans, and Roth conversions under new IRS rules. The show wraps with a playful rant about birthday freebies and a PBS show rec (“Mr. Bates vs. the Post Office”).
0:04 The truth about balanced portfolios and the 60/40 myth
1:50 Why bonds failed in 2022—and what 150 years of history say about diversification
3:27 Bear markets: 60/40 vs. all stocks during crises like the Great Depression
4:53 Trade-offs: long-term growth vs. sticking with the plan
6:49 Financial Flinch Reflex: the PSA ad returns
7:09 Caller John asks: “What’s so bad about fixed indexed annuities?”
8:00 Don unloads: high fees, misleading returns, and awful disclosures
10:11 John presses for alternatives: what’s safe and simple with decent return?
13:02 Don’s CD ladder strategy vs. annuities
15:08 Why opacity, commissions, and complexity make these products unsuitable for most
16:21 Caller Charles: a planner wants to manage his annuity—for a fee
17:21 Why even “fixed” annuities might not belong in fiduciary portfolios
20:47 The growing gray area: commissions vs. fiduciary care
22:17 Ranking annuities: worst to best (indexed, variable, fixed, immediate)
24:58 Summary: “Lazy products” sold for commission, not client success
26:39 Caller Brian: NY teacher strategizes 403(b), 457, Roth, and future pension
28:29 Navigating new Roth rules, Rule of 55, and using a 7% fixed option
30:15 Don and Tom: stick with pre-tax now, convert later in lower-bracket retirement
33:02 Mechanics of Roth catch-ups: plan providers still in the dark
35:29 Birthday freebies! Tacos, cookies, burgers… and existential dread
36:57 Red Robin, Denny’s, and the pursuit of the free Grand Slam
38:06 Book chat: Don’s still slogging through the Franklin bio
39:13 Must-watch: Mr. Bates vs. the Post Office on PBS
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Ep. 1690: Small Stocks, Big Upside Jul 22, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom highlight what may be today’s biggest stock market bargain: small-cap value stocks, which have drastically underperformed large-cap growth and now appear poised for long-term reversion to the mean. They explain why chasing big winners like Nvidia and Apple could backfire, and why broad diversification with a tilt toward small and value still makes sense. Callers get help with tax drag from old mutual funds, switching from expensive active funds to ETFs, household asset allocation, Roth conversions, and whether to sell a large single-stock inheritance. The show wraps with a well-deserved swipe at Jordan Belfort’s shameless self-promotion.
0:05 Don kicks things off with a musical flashback: The Who’s “Bargain” sets the tone for a segment on what may be today’s biggest investing bargain—small value stocks.
2:00 The S&P 500 has averaged 13.2% annually since 2014; small caps lag at 7.2%. Investors are fleeing small-cap ETFs just as they may be poised for reversion to the mean.
3:30 The top five stocks in the S&P 500 are now five times larger than the entire Russell 2000. That kind of imbalance can’t last forever.
5:08 Historically, small-cap value has outperformed large growth by ~4% annually over 100 years—yet most investors are overexposed to U.S. large-cap growth.
8:08 Instead of market timing, build a balanced portfolio based on your risk tolerance. Consider overweighting small and value, but don’t ditch large caps entirely.
9:23 Even the worst year for small caps (2008, -34%) wasn’t as bad as the S&P’s peak-to-trough crash (-57%). Diversification isn’t just smart—it’s safer.
10:23 For equity allocation: a 1/3 split between large U.S., small U.S., and international may be simple, but effective.
11:59 Eugene from Baltimore has a $5M+ portfolio generating massive taxable income. Don and Tom recommend municipal bonds and more tax-efficient ETFs.
17:45 Mutual fund to ETF conversions (like those offered by Vanguard and Dimensional) could reduce Eugene’s tax bill without triggering capital gains.
22:43 BJ from San Antonio holds a pricey Invesco fund (SMMIX) full of big tech—essentially a closet index fund with an 0.85% fee. Time to switch to low-cost, diversified ETFs.
25:38 Vanguard’s VUG offers the same exposure with more holdings and a 0.04% fee—plus it’s transparent, predictable, and consistent.
28:43 Ron in Lakeland wonders if he should copy his wife’s ETFs. If your household has a unified asset allocation plan, identical holdings across accounts are fine.
31:27 Jerry from Lacey, WA asks whether to keep doing Roth conversions or start Social Security now. Don and Tom advise continuing tax-efficient conversions, possibly up to the 22% bracket, but not beyond. Also watch out for income thresholds that affect benefits like the $6K tax rebate.
35:46 Sherry (dropped call) inherited $4M in Microsoft. Diversify! But do it with a tax strategy and professional help.
36:49 Don reacts to a nauseating LinkedIn post by Jordan Belfort, reminding us that glorifying financial predators only feeds industry corruption.
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Ep. 1689: Big and Beautiful? Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dive into the new “big, beautiful” tax bill with humor and skepticism, covering changes to Social Security taxation, tips and overtime exemptions, expanded SALT deductions, and the controversial $1,000 baby bonus. They also tackle listener questions on Roth vs. IRA asset protection, portfolio rebalancing confusion, and lazy robo-advisory allocations. Bonus: helium speculation, trade school love, and a jab at politicians who pander.
0:04 Intro: “Dearly beloved…” it’s tax time
1:10 Overview of the “Big Beautiful Bill” and $4T impact
1:25 Tips and OT tax exemptions starting in 2025
2:09 Social Security tax break: $6K per person if under income limits
3:28 Standard deduction and new child tax credits
4:13 $1,000 newborn savings account—free government money
5:17 SALT deduction expanded to $40K for four years
6:44 Property and sales tax deductions clarified
7:48 Guilt over tax breaks? Try a Roth gift for the grandkids
8:27 The “kid account” vs. 529 plans vs. UGMA
10:58 Trade school > AI: real jobs that can’t be outsourced
12:42 Don rants on political pandering in the bill
13:47 Listener Q1: 401(k) rollover and asset protection in Washington
16:17 IRA protections state-by-state
16:52 Listener Q2: Does rebalancing mean switching investments?
18:34 Rebalancing means returning to plan, not chasing trends
20:04 Show plug: Owen Wilson’s helium speculation on “Stick”
21:28 Listener Q3: Is this Vanguard robo-portfolio too lazy?
22:47 Why it’s impossible to rebalance between Roth and IRA accounts
23:58 Listener Q4: What’s really inside DFAW? Core 1 vs. Core 2
27:26 Core 2 = more small/value tilt; DFAW ≈ AVGE
28:26 Expense ratio difference between DFAW and AVGE is negligible
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Ep. 1688: Suze Q and A Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

Don answers a handful of listener questions, offering sharp, practical insight on investing myths, flexible retirement withdrawals, taxable brokerage accounts, and misleading financial scare tactics. He critiques Suze Orman’s confusing advice, breaks down the logic of the 4% rule, and dismantles a fear-mongering insurance pitch claiming to “save retirement.” Expect sarcasm, clarity, and one well-aimed diatribe at the insurance-industrial complex.
0:04 Summer slowdown in listener questions and podcast downloads
1:21 Don’s theory: why the South works less and the North built the Fortune 500
2:30 Suze Orman says sell treasuries, buy Pfizer—Don (and Chuck Jaffe) respond
4:58 How to send in your questions—Don needs more spoken ones
5:04 Listener Q1: Does the 4% rule assume you’ll run out at 95?
6:49 Don explains the assumptions behind the 4% rule and how it holds up historically
8:35 Q2 follow-up: What if I’m 50/50, not 60/40? Adjusting withdrawal expectations
9:59 Real-world historical 4% rule example from 1994 to 2024
11:03 Listener Q2: Building and eventually using a taxable brokerage account
13:50 Don’s advice: broader diversification, bigger emergency fund, and smart drawdown tactics
15:26 Listener Q3: Bob Carlson’s fear-based sales pitch—is it legit or just sleaze?
16:56 Don explains how insurance reps avoid disclosure rules and push high-commission junk
19:14 Why the radio is filled with non-fiduciary insurance hustlers
22:09 How to get real help, real answers, and real fiduciary advice—for free
22:36 Don’s final ask: bring Talking Real Money to your summer campfire
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Ep. 1687: ETF Madness Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dive into the wild world of “speculative” ETFs inspired by Jason Zweig’s WSJ piece, mocking the absurdity of funds like the Icelandic stock market ETF (35 stocks, really?) and those tracking things like crude oil shipping futures. They debunk the myth that “ETF” means safe and highlight the rise of investing as entertainment. Later, they discuss disclaiming inherited assets, why tax planning and estate titling matter, and why deferred compensation plans should be part of a bigger strategy—not just a reaction. Listener calls from Maryland, Sammamish, Yelm, and Illinois round out the episode with smart, practical retirement planning questions.
0:17 ETFs as sport? Jason Zweig’s takedown of gimmicky, risky ETFs
1:29 Iceland ETF, HVAC stocks, and crude oil transport—this isn’t investing
3:35 GLCR: The Iceland ETF with a 1% fee and a chilly 35-stock portfolio
5:09 Diversification vs. “D-versification” and the illusion of ETF safety
5:40 Why investing shouldn’t feel exciting—and what that says about us
6:50 Zweig’s gambling metaphor and why “just 5%” is still real money
8:56 Listener Eugene on inheriting IRAs and disclaiming taxable accounts
12:25 Legal disclaimers: IRS Rule 2518, timing, and why PODs are cleaner
15:23 Estate attorney reminders and state law disclaiming quirks
17:24 Sammamish listener Jason on VXUS vs. VEA for international exposure
18:56 Tesla talk: Waiting for $400, fears, and the balance sheet debate
22:03 Listener Chris from Yelm: Deferred comp vs. dividend stocks
26:34 Chris needs a real plan, not just portfolio improvisation
29:40 Strategy: Spend from taxable, defer the deferred
33:03 Listener Joni from Illinois: Maxing contributions and Roth eligibility
35:58 Congress’ oddly specific 60–63 catch-up rules and K Street lobbying
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