Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

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Ep. 1846: Retiremeet 2026 Part One Mar 10, 2026

Show notes

Broadcast live from RetireMeet in Bellevue, Don announces that after nearly four decades of Saturday radio shows, Talking Real Money will end its live radio run on March 28 and continue exclusively as a podcast. The episode features conversations with Joe Saul-Sehy of Stacking Benjamins and Morningstar’s Christine Benz about how people should approach retirement. The central theme is flipping the traditional process: design the life first and the money second. Guests emphasize “play-testing” retirement activities before leaving work, gradually transitioning into retirement rather than stopping abruptly, maintaining strong social connections, and keeping purposeful work or learning in later life. The discussion closes with Benz’s practical financial steps for retirement planning, including tracking spending, accounting for Social Security and pensions, and using flexible withdrawal strategies supported by fiduciary advice.
0:04 Live broadcast from RetireMeet in Bellevue and show introduction
2:58 Don announces the end of the Saturday live radio show after nearly 40 years
3:59 Transition to a podcast-only format beginning in April
4:43 How listeners can switch to listening via podcast apps or the website
6:41 Introduction of Stacking Benjamins host Joe Saul-Sehy
8:09 Discussion of Stacking Benjamins community meetup groups
9:25 Trivia detour about the $500 bill featuring William McKinley
9:36 Joe’s retirement philosophy: design the life first, then the financial plan
10:56 “Begin with the end in mind” when planning retirement
11:23 The concept of “play-testing” retirement activities before retiring
13:51 Warning about AI impersonation podcasts and fake financial shows
15:20 Joe Saul-Sehy’s career change after selling his advisory firm
16:37 Discovering a passion for teaching about money through media
17:33 Continuing meaningful work rather than fully retiring
18:07 Humor about a future podcast called “Two Old White Guys Waiting to Die”
18:48 Core message: experiment with retirement interests now
19:38 Christine Benz of Morningstar joins the conversation
21:04 Retirement as more than leisure—importance of purpose
21:59 Gradually transitioning into retirement during your 50s
22:58 Shaping work to emphasize what you enjoy most
24:21 Christine’s approach to scaling back work travel
26:22 Lifelong learning through podcasting and interviews
27:49 Whether it’s okay not to retire if you enjoy your work
28:27 Relationships and social connection as the key to retirement happiness
29:40 Introverts and maintaining meaningful friendships
30:05 Research on aging, happiness, and social environments
31:28 Discussion about the future of retirement communities
33:56 Christine’s three key financial steps before retirement
34:42 Calculating retirement spending and non-portfolio income
35:22 Safe withdrawal rates: 3.9% fixed vs flexible strategies near ~5.7%
36:09 The value of fiduciary financial advisors in retirement planning
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Ep. 1845: The Wisdom of Crowds Mar 10, 2026

Show notes

Don and Tom start with the classic “jelly beans in a jar” experiment to explain the wisdom of crowds and why large groups often produce surprisingly accurate predictions. That idea leads to a discussion of modern prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which sometimes outperform professional economists when forecasting things like GDP, inflation, or Federal Reserve decisions. But the hosts emphasize that these predictions ultimately don’t matter to investors, pointing instead to the long-term evidence that active fund managers consistently fail to beat the market. They highlight massive investor flows away from active funds toward index and rules-based strategies and remind listeners that successful investing is far simpler than many believe: save regularly, diversify broadly, keep costs low, and avoid emotional decisions. Listener questions cover tax-efficient asset location across account types, retirement withdrawal strategies including the 5% variable rule, and why short-term differences between funds like AVUV and DFAS are largely irrelevant.
0:04 Jelly beans and the “wisdom of crowds” analogy
2:24 Prediction markets and why crowds sometimes beat expert forecasts
3:29 Research showing prediction markets rival or outperform professional economists
6:01 Why gamblers may make better predictions than professional forecasters
7:04 Betting on prediction markets themselves and recession/interest-rate predictions
8:08 Why economic predictions ultimately don’t matter for investors
8:19 $1 trillion outflow from active mutual funds and the shift to passive investing
9:39 SPIVA data showing 98% of active funds underperform over 10 years
10:46 Index funds vs “rules-based” or evidence-based funds
11:43 The dramatic shift from active to index investing over the past decades
12:41 Why investors don’t need forecasts to succeed
14:28 Listener question: Asset allocation across taxable, IRA, and Roth accounts
17:14 Listener question: RMD timing and the 5% variable withdrawal strategy
20:36 How the 5% variable withdrawal approach works in retirement
22:36 Listener question: AVUV vs DFAS performance differences
24:48 Why short-term performance comparisons are largely meaningless
26:15 Market timing losses despite a strong 2025 market
27:10 Final reminder: No one can predict the future, not even brokers
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Ep. 1844: Free Money? Mar 05, 2026

Show notes

AI hype is colliding with financial reality. Don and Tom examine Elon Musk’s suggestion that artificial intelligence could create such abundance that retirement savings might become unnecessary. They unpack the economics behind universal basic income, including the staggering cost—even a modest payment would require trillions in new revenue—and explain why most Americans aren’t betting their futures on Silicon Valley promises. The episode also answers listener questions about confusing target-date fund holdings, what to do with an overfunded 529 plan, and how to reduce taxable investment distributions by placing assets in the right accounts. Along the way they revisit lessons from past technological revolutions, discuss the importance of work beyond income, and continue their campaign against the scourge of gas-powered leaf blowers.
0:04 AI panic and Elon Musk’s claim that AI could make retirement savings unnecessary.
1:52 Musk’s vision of AI-driven abundance and universal income replacing traditional retirement planning.
3:36 The practical question: who actually pays for universal income checks?
5:30 Historical tax rates in the 1960s vs. today’s marginal tax structure.
6:21 Survey shows 94% of readers still plan to save despite AI predictions.
7:17 Boston College researchers warn Musk’s comments send a dangerous retirement message.
8:23 Why universal basic income would require major government policy and taxes.
8:45 Past technology revolutions didn’t distribute wealth evenly.
9:27 Why humans need work for purpose, not just income.
10:33 The math problem: even $1,000/month UBI would require about $3.1 trillion annually.
11:54 Historical comparison to the Luddite era and displaced workers.
13:18 Listener question: What “short-term debt and net other assets” mean in a Fidelity target-date fund.
17:38 Listener question: Overfunding a 529 plan and potential Roth rollover strategies.
20:45 Listener question: Using Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund to reduce taxable distributions.
23:28 Asset location strategy: placing bonds in IRAs and stocks in taxable accounts.
24:49 Where to easily find mutual fund returns using Morningstar.
25:46 Tom’s Scottsdale advisory meetings announcement.
26:45 The crusade against gas-powered leaf blowers.
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Ep. 1843: Teach Real Investing Mar 04, 2026

Show notes

Financial education is expanding nationwide—but much of it is still teaching speculation instead of investing. Don and Tom critique stock-picking contests, flawed risk frameworks, and misleading “active vs. passive” framing, while arguing for evidence-based investing and early Roth contributions as the true foundations of financial literacy. They break down the compounding power of a 529-to-Roth strategy, address custodial transaction fees when selling mutual funds, caution against performance chasing in emerging markets after a major rally, and help a caller navigate moving an elderly parent’s CD out of a low-yield bank account. The through-line: education is powerful—but only if it’s grounded in reality.
0:04 Financial education expanding nationwide—but stock-picking contests still dominate curricula.
2:14 Why stock games teach trading, not investing. Own the market instead.
3:32 Federal Reserve curriculum critique—risk scales and “active vs passive” framing.
6:10 Teach teenagers Roth IRAs early. Time is the superpower.
7:36 Questionable risk ratings—growth stocks equated with collectibles.
9:17 Efficient Market Hypothesis in plain English—luck vs insider info.
10:45 529 plans and Roth rollovers—$35K opportunity.
11:37 Compounding example—$35K to nearly $2M tax-free over 40+ years.
15:43 Withdrawing from a Vanguard target-date fund—costs and custodian fees.
20:07 Performance chasing—emerging markets surge after tariff ruling.
23:13 South Korea’s role and Avantis outperformance.
28:40 Helping an elderly parent move a $200K CD—avoid automatic rollovers.
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Ep. 1842: With the Cost? Mar 03, 2026

Show notes

Don and Tom revisit the eternal temptation to beat the market, dismantling the appeal of equal-weight indexes and active management claims by highlighting implementation costs, tax drag, and decades of underperformance data. They explain why diversification isn’t about bragging rights but smoother returns and disciplined risk management. Callers tackle portfolio rebalancing for a multimillion-dollar account (with a strong case made for elegant simplicity), sibling stock-picking rivalries, and small-business 401(k) options
0:04 Beating the market. Four decades of “sure things” that weren’t.
2:44 Equal-weight vs. cap-weight. Smart idea… until costs show up.
4:58 Why diversify beyond the S&P 500. Smooth ride over bragging rights.
6:03 Theory vs. reality. Execution costs ruin beautiful strategies.
7:30 Active managers as “teammates.” The SPIVA reality check.
15:43 Small-business 401(k)s. More options, Vanguard pricing breakdown.
20:59 Caller Dan: Rebalancing a $3M portfolio. Simplicity wins.
28:33 Caller Glenn: “My brother beats the market.” Luck vs. skill.
33:56 Caller Dale: Virtual access and post-event recordings.
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Ep. 1841: Funds or Ladders? Mar 02, 2026

Show notes

This episode dives into the surprisingly emotional world of fixed income investing, exploring whether traditional bond funds like BND still make sense or if newer laddered bond ETFs offer a psychological edge by returning principal at a set maturity date. Don and Tom unpack how these ETFs compare to CD ladders, why capital gains should never be expected from bonds, and how investor psychology often drives the preference for “certainty.” They also congratulate Dimensional Fund Advisors on reaching $1 trillion in assets, discuss whether laddering target-date funds makes planning easier or just more complicated, and answer listener questions about transferring accounts from Morgan Stanley to Vanguard and managing tax consequences along the way.
0:04 Bonds vs. crypto — why fixed income feels boring but matters
1:02 Why bonds exist in portfolios (stability, income, not growth)
2:18 Introduction to laddered bond ETFs (Invesco, iShares, Vanguard)
3:51 Bond returns in 2025 and the “don’t expect capital gains” rule
5:03 The psychological problem with bond funds (they never mature)
6:54 How target-maturity bond ETFs differ from traditional bond funds
11:28 Yield comparisons across laddered maturities vs. BND
13:14 When laddered ETFs might make sense (income timing, certainty)
15:09 Dimensional Fund Advisors reaches $1 trillion in assets
19:57 Listener: Laddering target-date funds instead of bonds
23:19 Listener: Transferring IRA and taxable accounts to Vanguard
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Ep. 1840: More Qs reQuired Mar 02, 2026

Show notes

On this Friday Q&A episode, Don answers listener questions on international stock overweighting inside a Seattle city retirement plan, whether a Vanguard target-date fund might be a smarter emotional guardrail than self-managing allocations, how much term life insurance a family really needs (hint: it’s about replacing income, not funding Ivy League dreams), whether an aggressively small-value–tilted Avantis portfolio is too risky for a disabled early retiree, and how to evaluate a $36,000 pension annuity versus a $500,000 lump sum using withdrawal math instead of Monte Carlo optimism. The recurring theme: feelings aren’t an edge, discipline beats prediction, and structure matters more than conviction.
0:09 Fewer recorded questions lately and how to submit them
1:41 Seattle city employee overweighted in international stocks
3:36 Why “historic pivots” and gut feelings aren’t an investing edge
4:50 Target-date fund vs. self-built allocation
7:27 Using small-cap/value funds alongside a target-date fund
9:15 Risk tolerance vs. emotional market timing
10:53 How much term life insurance is enough?
12:35 Replacing income vs. funding lifestyle extras
12:44 Aggressive Avantis (AVGV/AVGE/AVNV/DFAW) portfolio review
15:50 What happens if your portfolio drops 50%?
17:10 Pension choice: $36k annuity vs. $500k lump sum
21:29 The 41-year math on the lump-sum difference
22:52 Why lump sum often makes you the “insurance company”
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Ep. 1839: Slicing Fees Feb 26, 2026

Show notes

Vanguard slashes fees again, pushing its average expense ratio down to six basis points. Don and Tom contrast that with outrageously expensive ETFs charging 2% to 14% annually, walk through why evidence-based factor funds cost a bit more than pure index funds, answer listener questions about international tilts and fund-of-funds rebalancing, and clarify why diversification across assets still matters more than fee-chasing alone.
0:04 Vanguard cuts fees again — average expense ratio now 0.06%
3:43 What expense ratios really are (and how many investors unknowingly overpay)
5:00 The shockers: ETFs charging 2% to 14% annually
11:13 Comparing Vanguard index costs vs. Avantis and Dimensional factor funds
14:41 Why anything above ~0.35% for passive/rules-based investing is likely too much
16:03 The “Militia” ETF: 14% fee, poker background, no real track record
19:46 Listener: Increasing international exposure inside IRA/Roth
21:35 Clarifying fund-of-funds vs. multiple funds for rebalancing
23:18 Why Avantis and Dimensional include mid-cap, REITs, and bonds
27:25 Evidence-based investing isn’t just about returns — it’s about correlation and volatility control
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Ep. 1838: It's One Portfolio Feb 25, 2026

Show notes

This episode focuses on smart portfolio construction across multiple accounts, using AVGV to complement limited 401(k) options, and why allocation should be viewed holistically. A caller debates stretching into a later target-date fund, prompting a discussion about risk versus actual retirement need. Crypto is challenged as speculation rather than investment. Dividend strategies and bond placement inside Roth IRAs are examined. A muni bond question reinforces the value of patience. The show closes with a humorous but pointed critique of the UFO ETF and broader thematic fund hype.
0:04 AVGE vs. AVGV — why adding global value can offset a 401(k)’s large-cap bias
5:02 Think one portfolio — asset allocation should span every account
8:18 2045 vs. 2060 target-date funds — only take the risk you actually need
11:20 Crypto challenge — utility, politics, and “I’m up” aren’t investment theses
14:48 SCHD in a Roth — dividend chasing and why bonds usually don’t belong there
18:54 Roth contribution ideas — avoid overlap, consider value exposure
20:11 Selling an individual muni — bid/ask spreads and the case for just holding
26:50 The UFO ETF — defense stocks wrapped in alien hype
31:01 $800B in thematic ETFs — headlines aren’t a strategy
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Ep. 1837: Rules of Thumb Feb 24, 2026

Show notes

This episode moves from the origin of “rule of thumb” to why most investing rules of thumb don’t work for real people. Tom and Don explore a Yale professor’s personalized allocation model, walk through tax-smart strategies for funding a child’s car while managing Roth conversions and capital gains, warn about liquidity risks in private credit after restrictions at Blue Owl Capital, explain how to structure IRA withdrawals through disciplined rebalancing, and close by addressing market-timing anxiety for retirees sitting heavily in cash. The through-line: simple rules are comforting, but thoughtful planning beats shortcuts every time.
0:04 What “rule of thumb” really means and why investing is full of them
2:17 60/40, 100-minus-age, and why simple formulas fall short
3:16 Yale professor James Choi’s personalized allocation formula
4:35 Why a 25-year-old probably should be nearly 100% in stocks
6:25 Spreadsheets vs. real-world investors
9:39 Portugal caller: funding a daughter’s car purchase tax-efficiently
13:28 Roth conversions, 12% bracket strategy, and zero capital gains planning
16:46 Rebalancing opportunity: selling VTI vs. Schwab Intelligent Portfolio
19:16 Private credit warning: liquidity restrictions at Blue Owl Capital
23:45 The illusion of “safe” high returns in private lending
26:53 IRA withdrawal strategy: sell winners when rebalancing
29:35 Annual vs. monthly withdrawal discipline
31:34 60/40 vs. 70/30 — how much difference really matters
33:32 Retirement income simplification: fewer funds, easier rebalancing
34:48 Seattle caller: $1.45M in money market and market-timing temptation
36:18 Why market timing fails and when an advisor earns their keep
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