Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup Aug 10, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy!

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind

07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events

12:23 Polkadot Ad

13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility

18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals

21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts?

23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads

26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument

42:30 Permissionless Ad

43:10 State Of The Labor Market

45:38 Where Is Economic Growth?

50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way?

55:18 Crypto Market Overview

01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes

01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm Aug 07, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!

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MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:13) What is the Sahm Rule?

(06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered

(08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule

(10:20) Are We in a Recession?

(14:05) Mantra Ad

(15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule

(18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession

(21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0

(22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule

(24:35) July Unemployment Report

(32:10) Permissionless Ad

(32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market

(38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?

(40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?

Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup Aug 02, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy!

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways

(16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding?

(23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

(26:11) Permissionless Ad

(26:50) What's Happening In Crypto?

(31:13) Coinbase Earnings

(35:39) Tether Earnings

The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan Aug 01, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy!

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) FOMC Takeaway's

(03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates?

(11:03) Mantra Ad

(12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different?

(17:56) QRA & The QT Impact

(22:08) What's The Trade?

(28:27) Permissionless Ad

(29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

(37:51) What's Next For Markets?

Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup Jul 27, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy!

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden Jul 24, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy!

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:49) The Rate Cutting Cycle

(05:09) Is The Economy Slowing?

(08:51) Will We See A Recession?

(11:02) The Small Cap Rotation

(13:34) Mantra Ad

(14:43) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

(18:12) The Election Impact

(21:34) Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset

(33:13) Permissionless Ad

(33:54) Oil & Energy

(42:05) Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio

The Stock Market & Crypto Are Turning | Weekly Roundup Jul 20, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss what is happening in crypto & traditional markets. With rate cut expectations building, are we on the verge of a massive small cap rotation? We then deep dive into the dispersion trade unwind, is crypto about to catch up to the momentum in traditional markets, the U.S election impact & more. Enjoy!

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

A Soft Landing Is Unrealistic | Andy Constan Jul 17, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show for a discussion on the current state of the U.S economy & inflation continues to roll over & financial conditions remain loose. We deep dive into the outlook for stocks, bonds & markets into H2 2024. Enjoy!

Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:27) Why The Economy Has Remained Strong

(04:39) Financial Conditions Are Still Loose

(11:32) Mantra Ad

(12:39) Relief In The Long End Has Been Fueling A Stock Market Rally

(23:01) What To Expect From The QRA?

(29:24) Permissionless Ad

(30:02) Alpha vs Beta

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

What Deflation Means for Crypto, Gold and Tech | Weekly Roundup Jul 13, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, we dive deep into the latest CPI data showing potential deflationary trends and explore its implications. We analyze how deflation could reshape crypto, gold, and technology stocks. We also cover the Federal Reserve's likely response, the weakening dollar, and the potential for a major market rotation from big tech to small caps and commodities. Thanks for tuning in!

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) CPI & Inflation Outlook

(13:05) Avalanche Ad

(14:30) Equity Outlook

(25:13) Labor Market Conditions

(34:54) Permissionless Ad

(35:34) German Gov & Mt Gox Supply Overhang

(45:01) Crypto vs Gold Catch Up Trade

(55:06) Evolving Politics Culture

Timestamps:

An Inevitable Recession? Why the Soft Landing is a Myth | Julian Brigden Jul 10, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners discusses the current economic landscape, challenging the prevailing optimism about a soft landing. He delves into the complexities of the labor market, the sticky nature of core service inflation, and the psychological shift in corporate pricing strategies. Brigden explores the Federal Reserve's dilemma in managing inflation without triggering a recession, and examines global economic flows and their impact on the US dollar. To close out Julian unpacks where potential may exist in the choppy market. Enjoy!

Follow Julian Brigden: https://x.com/julianmi2

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) Are Rate Cuts Coming?

(08:54) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come

(14:46) Avalanche Ad