Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

On the Margin: Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, What's Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup Sep 14, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy!

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:22) Ram's Background

(03:26) 25 Bps vs 50 Bps

(08:42) Inflation Data

(11:01) The Economy Is Okay

(12:36) Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut

(16:08) Parsing the Economic Data

(18:12) Labor Productivity

(20:27) Ads

(21:44) Chinese Economy & Red Flags

(28:08) US Equities

(32:02) Growth Vs Value

(34:31) Factor Market

(36:34) Market Rotation

(44:24) Permissionless Ad

(45:02) Narratives Driving Markets

(48:21) Digital Assets

(54:49) Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action

(59:05) Hot Money Rotation

(01:00:37) Cutting Cycle Dynamics

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On the Margin: Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell Sep 12, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf

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Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) Austin's Background

(03:21) Unpacking the Banking System

(06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo

(10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking

(14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves

(22:00) What is Crypto Solving?

(27:33) Mantra Ad

(28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization

(32:34) CBDCs

(36:41) Blockchains vs Databases

(40:06) Permissionless Ad

(40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony

(44:52) Backlash to Crypto

(47:46) Crypto Market Outlook

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On the Margin: Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup Sep 07, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing

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Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Non-Farm Payrolls

(09:52) Comparing Other Labor Market Data

(12:47) The Fed's Reaction Function

(17:54) The Yield Curve Uninverting

(19:13) Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation

(25:54) Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing

(28:34) Advertisements

(29:48) Tyler's AI Rant

(33:25) What's Going On In China?

(39:30) Flight From China

(41:52) Permissionless Ad

(42:32) Crypto Market Update

(44:54) The Effects Of Rate Cuts

(47:13) Bitcoin Downside & Outlook

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On the Margin: Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein Sep 04, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy!

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Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallerstein

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Eric's Background

(03:07) The Labor Market Is Okay

(08:17) Why The Fed Is So Dovish

(11:08) Consumer Savings

(14:22) Real Wages

(16:53) Labor Productivity

(20:38) Breaking Down GDP

(24:08) Economic Big Picture

(26:46) Mantra Ad

(27:25) Risks To The Consumer

(29:52) The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut

(33:34) Private Credit Markets

(37:08) The Fed Supporting Credit Markets

(39:17) Bond Markets

(41:54) Stock & Bond Correlations

(44:10) Rethinking Asset Allocation

(46:22) Permissionless Ad

(47:02) Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind

(49:36) Chinese Economy

(52:15) Europe Doesn't Issue Debt

(55:31) Key Takeaways

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On the Margin: NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup Aug 31, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link

Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf

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Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:27 NVIDIA Earnings

08:12 Growth Vs Value

11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth

14:02 Yield Curve Steepening

17:40 High Yield Spreads

19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession

23:00 The Health Of The Consumer

29:59 Advertisements

31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet

37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility

38:57 Central Bank Independence

41:18 Permissionless Ad

41:57 A Weaker US Dollar

44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics

53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps

56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?

59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?

01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro

On the Margin: The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell Aug 28, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy!

Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercap

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

(04:20) Uptrend In Global Liquidity

(05:53) Global Risk Exposure

(12:10) A New Shanghai Accord

(18:44) Mantra Ad

(19:24) Mechanics Of Yen Intervention

(22:01) The Treasury Market

(30:20) Breakeven Inflation Rates

(32:56) Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio

(35:52) Permissionless Ad

(36:33) US Public Debt

(40:14) Monetary Inflation Hedges

(43:11) Managing Bill Issuance

(47:03) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

(48:50) The Structure Of Global Liquidity

(50:08) The MOVE Index

(53:49) Treasury Buybacks

(55:06) Real Interest Rates

(56:38) Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity

(59:37) More Upside In Gold & BTC

On the Margin: The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup Aug 24, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris’ newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy!

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

Roundup Chart Deck: https://blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5

Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapital

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:13) Jackson Hole Speech

(08:17) Employment Outweighing Inflation

(09:33) Zaheer's Macro View

(11:18) Housing Comeback

(13:49) Polkadot Ad

(14:26) Global Liquidity

(18:01) Credit Isn't The Problem

(23:02) New Cycle Of Investing

(26:22) Kamala's Economic Policies

(34:45) Permissionless Ad

(35:27) Crypto Regulation

(42:27) Election Impact On Crypto

(44:19) Crypto Market Outlook

(50:42) The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started

(54:55) Altcoins

(59:21) Attributes Of Value

(01:01:37) Don't Fight The Fed

(01:03:11) Polkadot Ad

Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows Aug 21, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy!

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy

(04:49) Macro Philosophy

(07:48) Macro Framework

(11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge

(15:26) Credit & Duration Risk

(18:46) Mantra Ad

(19:26) Interest Rate Expectations

(25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

(27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve

(30:38) Permissionless Ad

(31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market

(36:31) Upside Tail Risks

(39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession?

(43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers

Has The Dust Settled? | Weekly Roundup Aug 17, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market’s economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July’s CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy!

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing

(04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy?

(06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool

(09:05) Massive VIX Decline

(11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off?

(18:06) The Role Of Flows

(21:57) July CPI

(24:58) What's Going On With China?

(29:13) The Fed's Next Move

(31:26) Market Overreaction

(34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs

(40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market

(42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own?

(44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral?

(47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled

(53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks

The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell Aug 12, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy!

Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell

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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:06) Market Volatility Overview

(04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration

(06:24) Dispersion Trades

(10:49) Market Risks & Correlations

(14:09) Mantra Ad

(15:15) The Carry Trade

(18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy

(23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets

(31:25) Permissionless Ad