Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

Fed Tightening Hammers Bitcoin, Kazakhstan Internet Outage Disrupts Hash Rate Jan 08, 2022

Show notes

In this first round up of the New Year, Mark and I started with the question that's on everyone's mind: are we still in a bull market?

Answer - you'll have to listen to the episode to find out! But I will say... compelling narratives and data on both sides. Whatever the truth is, we have clearly entered a pattern of market behavior that is different from past cycles. Variety, as they say, is the spice of life.

We went pretty deeply into the Fed's recent minutes, including the hawkish pivot and what that means for markets. Four separate rate hikes starting in March of this coming year are now being priced in with 80% probability. Assets are reacting accordingly, with everything from the S&P to the Nasdaq to Bitcoin falling percipitously.

For our weekly stories, we covered the internet outage in Kazakhstan and the commensurate dip in hash power on the Bitcoin network. We also talked about the continued migration of hash rate out of eastern countries and into more stable regimes, primarily the US.

Finally we closed on OpenSea's monster $300 million dollar round led by Coatue and Paradigm. For a more in-depth analysis of what drove their valuation, you'll have to give the episode a listen.

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Dollar Predictions for 2022 with Brent Johnson and Lawrence Lepard Jan 05, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital & Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates. Brent & Lawrence discuss Brent's Dollar milkshake thesis and the negative effect a rising dollar could have on the global financial system looking ahead to 2022.

Brent & Lawrence also share their thoughts on the long term debt cycle, the bond market during financial repression, the current slow down in economic activity & inflation, what a return to sound money would look like & how to protect your portfolio in this environment.

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Chart Storm For The New Year | Weekly Round Up Jan 01, 2022

Show notes

To bring us into the new year, Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley take viewers on an audio-visual guided tour of the most salient macro topics for 2022. They analyze a series of charts that illustrate the most important issues, such as factor rotation in equities, what banks are doing with all their money, and why the interest rate futures market (i.e. Eurodollar futures) has a different view on the future path of interest rates than the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts.

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

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Dollar vs Yuan: The Next Global Reserve Currency with Russell Clark Dec 29, 2021

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Russell Clark. With a wealth of knowledge that spans over 20 years as both an Investment Analyst and CIO/CEO of Russell Clark Investment Management, Russell shares his outlook on Japan as a model for the U.S, China's rise post globalization, the connection between food & inflation, what is the end game for QE, Russell's outlook on Bitcoin and so much more.

Here you can follow Russell's Substack for his latest thoughts: https://www.russell-clark.com/

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

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On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

Trump Hates Crypto, Jack Hates Web 3, Erdogan Launches Bid to Support Lira Dec 25, 2021

Show notes

In this extra special weekly round up, Mark and I are joined by "Hollywood" Jack Farley, welcome Jack!

We kicked things off with Trump's recent comments about crypto. Despite his wife Melania launching an NFT project on Solana, it would seem he is not a fan! Next, we moved onto Jack Dorsey's comments on Web 3. We provided context about recent pushback of NFTs from the Discord and Ubisoft communities, and asked why this pushback felt so emotional.

Finally, we concluded by covering Erdogan's bid to prop up the Lira and compared it to some of the financial experimentation pioneered in crypto.

Happy HODL days all!

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

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What Rising Inflation Means for Stocks and Bonds | Harley Bassman and Jack Farley Dec 22, 2021

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike & Jack are joined by Harley Bassman otherwise known as 'The Convexity Maven'. Harley has spent over 35 years working at some of the largest firms including Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, PIMCO and now Simplify Asset Management. With an expert understanding of options, volatility & derivatives, we invited Harley for a masterclass on how investors can hedge in this market environment. Harley shares his insights into M2 money supply growth's effect on inflation, how demographics predict bond yields, what investors outlook should be for the traditional 60/40 portfolio, using the yield curve to predict recessions and so much more!

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

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Join the fastest growing venture capital investment community, at https://www.ourcrowd.com/otm

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On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

Ray Dalio Changes his Mind on Bitcoin, Stock Buybacks Skyrocket, Everything is Money Illusion Dec 18, 2021

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I start off with Ray Dalio's comments about Bitcoin, Gold and Ethereum. Spoiler alert - minds are being changed! Next we get into the increasing politicization of crypto, and the battle lines being drawn between the Dems and the GOP.

Next we get into breadth in the Nasdaq as a potential sign of worry (thanks Bear O'Shea for the flag!), record stock buybacks amidst insider selling, and finally the growing percentage of net income explained by the stock market.

We end this week's episode on a philosophical question - is ALL growth just a result of money illusion? For the answer to that, you'll have to listen in.

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

OurCrowd:

Join the fastest growing venture capital investment community, at https://www.ourcrowd.com/otm

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On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum in 2022 with Avi Felman Dec 15, 2021

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Avi Felman. Avi is the Co Portfolio Manager at BlockTower Capital and joins us to share his updated outlook on the market. Avi discusses the key trends in the crypto market from Bitcoin & Ethereum, value vs momentum, the layer-1 wars & more.

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

OurCrowd:

Join the fastest growing venture capital investment community, at https://www.ourcrowd.com/otm

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On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

November Inflation Tops 6.8%, Evergrande Defaults on its Debt, Bitcoin's Next 6 Months Dec 11, 2021

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark returns from his two week hiatus (woo!). We quickly got into November's 6.8% CPI print, which was the highest in 39 years. We discussed the factors driving inflation, and whether or not they pointed towards transitory or permanent inflation.

Next we covered the Evergrande default, and whether or not the resultant fall out is cause for concern. We moved through skyrocketing household debt, a slowing global credit impulse, and whether or not the world is headed for "Japanification."

Finally, we ended on Mark and my thoughts on where Bitcoin is headed next. Tune in to find out more.

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

Coinbase Prime:

On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.

For more information go to https://onthemargin.link/coinbase

OurCrowd:

Join the fastest growing venture capital investment community, at https://www.ourcrowd.com/otm

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

2022 Crypto Theses with Ryan Selkis Dec 08, 2021

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Ryan Selkis Co-Founder & CEO at Messari. Having released the 150+ page 'Crypto Theses for 2022' report, we invited Ryan to the show to discuss the most important trends to look out for in the industry. Mike & Ryan discuss the Layer-1 wars, venture capital investment in crypto, NFTs 100x potential, regulation for crypto & DAOs, Ryan's market outlook for 2022 & so much more.

Link to the full report - https://messari.io/crypto-theses-for-2022

Ledger:

This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.

Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.

Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.

Coinbase Prime:

On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.

For more information go to https://onthemargin.link/coinbase

OurCrowd:

Join the fastest growing venture capital investment community, at https://www.ourcrowd.com/otm

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors.

For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

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