Supply Shock

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Bitcoin's Role in the 80 Year Debt Cycle | Charles Edwards Feb 09, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments. After releasing his Capriole's 2022 Market Outlook newsletter, we invited Charles to the show for a discussion about what he expects for 2022 & beyond.

Charles shares his thoughts on the macro outlook for 2022, where Bitcoin becomes a value vs momentum play, Bitcoin vs Ethereum & Bitcoin's role in the long term debt cycle.

Capriole Investments: http://capriole.com

Follow Charles Edwards: https://twitter.com/caprioleio

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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How to Value Bitcoin | Timothy Peterson and Mark Yusko Feb 05, 2022

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In this episode, Mark and I were joined by special guest Timothy Peterson to discuss a very important topic: how to properly value Bitcoin. I've included a summary of our content below, but if you are interested in finding out more info about Tim or his approach, there are lots of good resources on his website here.

To kick things off, Tim gave us his framework for how to value Bitcoin, which relies on Metcalfe's Law. We talked about other networks including Facebook, Amazon, and even Tesla whose valuations can be traced to the same underlying principle.

We dove into historical periods where Bitcoin exceeded its fair value, and what caused those deviations. Next we took a look at Bitcoin's trailing returns vs user growth, and some other shorter term drivers of price action such as transaction volume.

Tim gave us some helpful comparisons between Bitcoin and other markets, such as the market for negative yielding debt and the Nasdaq. We walked through why Bitcoin is correlated to those markets.

Finally we ended on Ethereum, other crypto networks, and how network effects could impact a multi-chain future. For our conclusions there, you'll have to tune into the show.

Follow Timothy Peterson: @nsquaredcrypto

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Is the Crypto Bull Market Over | Dan Tapiero & Dan Morehead Feb 02, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital & Dan Tapiero of 10T. With collectively over 40 years in the hedge fund business at notable firms such as Tiger Management, before later pivoting to crypto in 2014, these two provide a unique insight into the growth of the crypto industry and just how big it could become over the next decade.

Dan & Dan share their Macro outlook for 2022, the bursting of the U.S bond market, how crypto today compares with 2017, what the next big picture macro trade is, the mainstream adoption of crypto & discuss whether the bull market is over.

Follow Dan Tapiero: @DTAPCAP

Follow Dan Morehead: @dan_pantera

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Biden Cracks Down on Crypto | Weekly Round Up Jan 29, 2022

Show notes

In this episode Mark and I covered two big topics: the fallout of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and the announcement that the White House is cracking down on crypto as a matter of "national security."

We kicked things off with one of my favorite charts of all time, the S&P going back to 1926 superimposed over every reason investors had to sell. Helps provide some perspective, you know? Next we covered what the market is pricing in in terms of rate hikes for 2022, and the likelihood that the Fed will follow through on their hawkish rhetoric.

Next we moved on to real yields and gold's confusing response, the flattening yield curve, and the precipitous rise in the DXY. We also covered the precipitous drop in unprofitable tech, increased volatility in the stock market, and what both of these things tell us about where we're at in the business cycle.

We also took a look at today's price action in the S&P and high yield credit market and how that compared to the 6 month period in 2018-2019 around the "Powell Pivot" (hint: there are similarities).

Finally, Mark and I gave our thoughts on the impending crackdown that is rumored to be coming soon from the White House. For details on that, you'll have to listen to the episode.

Follow Mark: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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How Fed Tightening Will Impact Markets | Andreas Steno Larsen Jan 26, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen Director & Lead Economist of Heimstaden. After spending 10+ years as a Chief Global Strategist, FX Analyst & Researcher at Nordea, Andreas provides a unique insight into the current macro factors driving markets.

Andreas shares his global macro outlook for 2022, his thoughts on the effect tapering will have on markets, the slowing credit impulse as a leading indicator for growth, the rise of China vs the U.S & if we are in a period of secular inflation.

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

FOMC Preview: Expect More Turbulence | Jonathan Cheesman & Daniel Masters Jan 25, 2022

Show notes

This week in On the Margin, we have a special bonus episode for you. There's lots going on in markets and we thought if ever there were a time to speak to as many smart people as possible, it's now.

In this week's episode we are joined by CoinShares Chairman Danny Masters and FTX's Jon Cheesman to give us a preview for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

We also covered the increasing connection between macro and crypto, what constraints the Fed are operating under, and how different sectors of crypto will respond to increased tightening.

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Crypto Sheds $200B in 24 Hours: Is the Worst Behind Us? Jan 22, 2022

Show notes

In this round up, Mark and I are joined by Arca CIO Jeff Dorman to answer the one question on everyone's mind: what is driving the flash crash in crypto markets?

We discussed the impact the Fed's tightening is having on markets, why the PBOC's rate cuts aren't having as much of an effect on crypto, the importance of a strong Bitcoin to crypto markets, and where we will see dispersion in crypto in 2022.

Per usual, Mark and Jeff brought the fire, tune in to get their thoughts.

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

The Macro Forces Driving Crypto in 2022 with Jordi Alexander & Checkmate Jan 19, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Checkmate Lead On-chain Analyst for Glassnode. Jordi & Checkmate discuss the long term structural macro trends and how they effect the crypto markets. Jordi & Checkmate also explore if Crypto can forecast broader market conditions, wether Bitcoin has become a viable macro asset, is Crypto entering a bear market, Value vs Momentum & how will the Fed respond to the highest inflation in 40 years.

Link to Jordi's Twitter thread - https://twitter.com/gametheorizing/status/1435693384694321158

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Have We Hit Peak Inflation? A Deep Dive into the Data Behind December's Record Print Jan 15, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I tried something a little different. We went super deep on one topic, namely inflation. The question we asked was "Have fears around inflation peaked? And if so, what are the implications for asset prices?"

We started off by taking a look at which categories were driving CPI inflation. We took a look at which of these categories were sticky and likely to persists (like owners equivalent rent and energy) or likely due to temporary, pandemic related issues (used cars).

Next we covered the differing roles that the Fed and Treasury have in inflation, and the wild price inflation in the price of goods. Mark gave his views on whether or not the Fed actually had room to tighten, or if they would just roll over like they have done in the past.

Finally, we ended the discussion on the question every investor should be asking: are we headed towards an environment of negative real rates? And if we are, which assets will benefit? For the answer to that, you'll have to tune into the show.

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

What Will Happen if the Fed Raises Rates with Danielle DiMartino Booth Jan 11, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence. As a former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Danielle provides a unique insight into the Fed's policy decisions throughout 2022.

Danielle shares her thoughts on the dilemma's the Fed faces going into 2022, how the Fed exacerbated wealth inequality in America, Modern Monetary Theory, Universal Basic Income, her outlook for the U.S Dollar & so much more.

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

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