Stephan Livera Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low | Michael Sullivan SLP756 Jul 17, 2026

Show notes

Bitcoin desire sentiment has fallen to an eight-year low, a contrarian signal that historically aligns with market bottoms rather than tops.

Michael Sullivan, an engineer and author, applies machine learning to individual X accounts to track granular Bitcoin emotions and moods over time.

He examines how entry eras shape lasting narratives, why pro-BIP 110 cohorts show strikingly low conviction, how individual tracking avoids bot pollution, and why boredom plus infighting often mark optimal accumulation zones.

Timestamps:

01:44 — Conviction Isn't Bullish or Bearish

07:05 — Why Individual X Tracking Beats Bots

09:53 — Desire Peaks Flag Bull Market Tops

11:49 — Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low

16:27 — New Bitcoiners Angriest Right Now

21:00 — Bitcoin Entry Era Shapes Your Views Forever?

22:48 — BIP 110 Backers Show Strikingly Low Conviction

25:33 — Pro-BIP 110 Group Lives in Its Own Bubble

28:39 — BIP110 Brigading Creates Fake Consensus

31:57 — OGs Optimistic, Plebs Stay Angry

37:13 — X Algo Shift Sparks Bitcoin Optimism

39:57 — Why Sentiment Metrics Fail for Trading

41:55 — Boredom and Infighting Signal Bitcoin Bottom

Links:

Michael's X: https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan
Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly on Substack: https://sentimentsully.substack.com

Michael’s novel, Blood of the Bourgeoisie: https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Bourgeoisie-Michael-R-Sullivan-ebook/dp/B0FRZTM49Y

Stephan Livera links:

James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755 Jul 10, 2026

Show notes

Even as ETFs and MicroStrategy sell into weakness, natural spot demand has kept Bitcoin from collapsing in what may be the shallowest bear market on record. The real test now is time pain, the grinding boredom that forces out remaining weak hands after the initial price capitulation.

James Check, founder of Checkonchain.com, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. His framework distinguishes price pain from the subsequent time pain that historically marks the true bottom.

Checkmate examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, why 53K realized price now acts as a floor, the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies, and why most copycat strategies will fail in the months ahead.

Timestamps:

00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst

03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands

05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen

08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero

11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money

15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average

18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor

23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA

28:30 — The AI Trade

30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat

35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail?

37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin

41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule

47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle

49:05 — High-Yield Trap?

Links:

https://x.com/_Checkmatey_
https://x.com/_checkonchain
checkonchain.com
https://charts.checkonchain.com
http://newsletter.checkonchain.com/

Stephan Livera links:

#StephanLivera #StephanLiveraPodcast #Bitcoin #BearMarket #OnChain #Checkmate #TimePain #RealizedPrice #BitcoinTreasury #MarketCycles

Bitcoin in Your Signal Chat – Radar’s Bold Move with Seth for Privacy | SLP754 Jul 09, 2026

Show notes

Radar integrates self-custodial Bitcoin payments directly into Signal's messaging network, eliminating the need for separate apps or custodians when sending value to contacts.

Seth for Privacy, from the Cake Wallet team, explains how Radar targets everyday users rather than Bitcoin maximalists by preserving Signal's privacy model while adding instant Lightning-enabled transfers via Spark.

The discussion covers seamless account migration from Signal, offline payment receives, wallet risk limits for non-critical funds, and the decision to pursue VC funding through a separate entity.

Timestamps:

00:49 — Why Messaging & Payments Stay Separate

03:34 — Migrate Signal Account Without Losing Data

08:18 — Send Bitcoin Instantly With One Tap

10:10 — Receive Payments Completely Offline

11:40 — Bitcoin for Everyone, Not Just Bitcoiners

14:21 — Don't Put Life Savings in Hot Wallet

17:10 — Signal Can't See Your Bitcoin Payments

19:13 — Donating Monthly to Signal Foundation

22:48 — Radar Takes VC Path Unlike Cake

Links:

Radar Chat: https://radar.chat
@SethForPrivacy: https://x.com/sethforprivacy
Cake Wallet: https://cakewallet.com

Stephan Livera links:

Dan Gould: Payjoin DevKit Ships and Breaks Common Input Ownership | SLP753 Jul 07, 2026

Show notes

Payjoin delivers transaction batching driven by real economic activity rather than waiting for pool participants, while also cutting fees through direct net settlement between counterparties.

Dan Gould, maintainer of Payjoin DevKit, explains how the new async protocol and oblivious HTTP relay change what is practical for mobile wallets today.

The conversation covers current live deployments in Bull Bitcoin and Cake Wallet, remaining fingerprinting heuristics beyond common input ownership, the multi-party roadmap, and how developers can integrate the library with under ten thousand lines of code.

Timestamps:

00:00 — Payjoin DevKit

01:46 — Live Payjoins in Wallets Today

04:25 — No Waiting for Batch Pools

06:14 — Payjoin Works on Mobile Phones

08:29 — Oblivious HTTP Hides Your IP

10:05 — Fingerprinting Still an Issue?

14:02 — Net Settlement Saves Big Fees

15:36 — Multi-Party Payjoin Roadmap

17:10 — Build Payjoin in a Weekend

Links:

https://x.com/brian_trollz/status/2069465912143749462
https://github.com/payjoin/payjoin.org/pull/143
https://payjoindevkit.org/
https://x.com/bitgould

Stephan Livera links:

Fedimint in South Africa: Zero Fees & Community Custody | SLP752 Jul 03, 2026

Show notes

A South African circular economy is already running real payments on Fedimint with seven guardians on Start9 boxes. Users send eCash with zero fees inside the federation and feel the same simplicity as Wallet of Satoshi—except the custody is local and the privacy model is different.

Hermann and Joshi explain how non-technical guardians set up 5-of-7 multisig, how the Conduit wallet hides complexity, and why Fedimint beats Liquid on on-chain integration and local trust. They also cover Lightning gateway economics and why small federations may beat one global Spark.

Bitcoiners exploring Lightning, eCash privacy, and circular economies in emerging markets should listen.

Key Takeaways:

Seven-guardian 5-of-7 multisig on Start9 now runs daily in South Africa with high reliability.
Users inside the same federation enjoy true zero-fee eCash transfers.
Conduit wallet offers a lighter, payments-focused alternative to Fedi with regional QR support.
Migration between federations is smooth with parallel running and user-controlled timing.
Fedimint severs the transaction graph for privacy while Liquid hides amounts but retains the graph.
Local guardians reduce the “custodial guilt” felt when onboarding users to foreign services.
Lightning gateways can become profitable side businesses with only a few hours of monthly work.
Geographic spread of guardians improves resilience against local internet or power outages.
Onboarding still requires one extra step—joining the federation—after app install.
Fedimint is on-chain native, allowing direct receive and send without intermediate swaps.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Fedimint Goes Live in South Africa

01:48 - Magic: Pay Across Africa

04:15 - Onboard Users Without Custodial Guilt

08:08 - Zero Fees Shock Rural Users

11:04 - Liquid vs Fedimint Privacy Showdown

13:32 - Many Small Federations Or Global Spark

16:09 - Non-Techies Run Bitcoin Guardians Easily

18:14 - 5-of-7 Multisig Survives Two Failures

20:53 - Fedimint QR Is a 5-of-7 Multisig

24:05 - Gateway: Profitable Hobby in Hours/Month

31:06 - Trust Locals Over Anonymous Custodians

34:55 - Spread Guardians to Survive Outages

Links:

Bitcoin Ekasi: https://bitcoinekasi.org
Fedimint: https://fedimint.org
Conduit Wallet: https://joschisan.github.io/conduit/
SLP651 with Eric & Joschi: https://stephanlivera.com/651
Follow Hermann: https://x.com/vryfokkenou
Follow Joschi: https://x.com/joschisanbtc

Stephan Livera links:

Quarterly Self-Custody Update - Q2 2026 with NVK | SLP751 Jun 30, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, NVK rejoins me to discuss the latest developments in Bitcoin self-custody, hardware wallets, and privacy solutions, providing valuable insights for enthusiasts and practitioners alike.

Timestamps:

00:00 Quarterly Self-Custody Update

01:28 Sparrow Wallet Update & Silent Payments

05:41 Coldcard MK5 & Recent Firmware Updates

07:53 The Evolution of Co-signing & MuSig2

11:58 Liana & Nunchuk Wallet Updates

17:16 Cove, BlueWallet & Mobile Wallet Progress

19:09 BitKey V2 & Pragmatic Self-Custody

22:55 Open Hardware Wallet Project Updates

27:15 Merchant Payments & Bitcoin Commerce

31:19 Stable Balance Wallets & Self-Custody

36:38 Hardware Wallet Security Updates

39:07 ARCA: Personal Data Haven Explained

Links:

Stephan Livera links:

The First Stratum V2 Block: What It Means for Bitcoin Mining | SLP750 Jun 29, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Alejandro De La Torre, CEO of @DMND_Sv2, joins me to discuss the mining of Bitcoin block 955,318 — the first known Stratum V2 block on mainnet.

We break down what happened, the benefits of Stratum V2, how it improves efficiency and we talk about SV2 adoption more broadly.

A great episode for anyone who wants to understand where Bitcoin mining is heading.

Timestamps:

00:00 The First Stratum V2 Block: What Happened?

01:08 How Does Miner Transaction Selection Change Bitcoin Mining?

01:58 Can SV2 Mining Pools Still Reject Blocks Though?

03:19 Can Miners Easily Switch Pools with Stratum V2?

04:45 Major Mining Pools Joining the Stratum V2 Working Group

05:40 Hardware & Firmware Support for Stratum V2

07:43 Is Miner Interest in Stratum V2 Growing?

09:00 The Biggest Benefits of Stratum V2 for Miners

10:21 How Does DMND's SLICE Payout System Compare to FPPS?

11:50 What Needs to Happen for Stratum V2 to Become the Standard?

13:21 Should Miners Start Building Their Own Block Templates?

Links:

Alejandro’s announcement post: https://x.com/bitentrepreneur/status/2070131040992035235
DMND Pool: https://www.dmnd.work
Alejandro on X: https://x.com/bitentrepreneur

Stephan Livera links:

Bitcoin Treasury Stocks: Sentiment or Structure? Deep Dive with Adrian Morris | SLP749 Jun 29, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Adrian Morris joins the show to discuss Bitcoin Treasury Companies. We explore whether MSTR and STRC are over, sustainable mNAV premiums, the impact of leverage, the right way to calculate mNAV, how many such companies can realistically exist, and how this space evolves through bull and bear markets.

Timestamps:

00:00 What are Bitcoin Treasury Skeptics Getting Wrong?

03:55 Is it over for STRC? Par vs Peg

06:30 The level of correlation to Bitcoin price

07:10 Critiques of STRC marketing?

09:02 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Correlation

10:50 Should Strategy Do Something About STRC?

13:55 Is it a waiting game?

14:40 Is the bitcoin treasury risk mispriced? When is a premium justified?

19:26 Leverage or Amplification embedded in the structure

24:10 Operating or Financing Flows to Get Bitcoin?

26:15 mNAV

29:12 Thoughts on CEBE Analysis

32:30 Different forms of mNAV

36:12 Sentiment’s role is amplified

40:32 “Just Tread Water and Survive Until the Bull”

42:47 Will the Correlation to Bitcoin Price increase over time?

46:18 Growth Opportunities: Mergers and Acquisitions

48:23 The Bitcoin Treasury Model - How Replicable is it?

51:50 Where are we in this cycle?

53:42 AI Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Investors

58:55 Is AI being overbuilt?

1:01:40 Open Weights and Local AI?

Links:

Adrian on X: https://x.com/_Adrian
True North: https://tnorth.com/
Bitcoin For Corporations: https://bitcoinforcorporations.com/

Stephan Livera links:

Silent Payments as the next step forward | SLP748 Jun 26, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Craig Raw returns to discuss Sparrow’s Silent Payments and Frigate integration, where multisig UX stands in 2026, his thoughts on building Bitcoin wallet software solo, and the ongoing challenges of distribution and platform risk.

We discuss:

Silent Payments and their impact on privacy and UX
Platform risks and the importance of pragmatic development
Standards and interoperability in Bitcoin wallets
The future of multi-sig UX and hardware wallet support
Cryptographic innovations like Frigate for scalable scanning

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro and Apple’s Walled Garden

05:30 - Pragmatism in Bitcoin

06:30 - Silent Payments: A New Era for Bitcoin Transactions

08:40 - Biggest Challenge in Bitcoin Privacy today

12:03 - Why Address Re Use is so prevalent today

13:40 - Contrasting Silent Payments and Lightning Address

16:00 - The Benefits of Silent Payments Far Outweigh Incremental Complexity

19:00 - The Future if the Bitcoin Community Doesn’t Move on this

22:45 - Privacy vs Convenience

25:40 - Putting SP and Lightning Address together

28:30 - The Scanning Challenge for SP and Frigate

37:20 - Hardware Reqruirements for Frigate

41:00 - Can Hardware Wallets Support SP?

49:55 - Bitcoin Multi Sig in 2026

51:30 - Craig on Miniscript use - Inheritance, Timelocking

53:20 - Miniscript refresh privacy concern

55:30 - Miniscript for managed solutions

59:00 - Multi Sig Quorum Registration

1:01:00 - Mixed Vendor Multi Sig setups

1:04:00 - Wallet Labelling BIP

1:06:44 - Bitcoin Adoption: Balancing Purism and Pragmatism

1:09:00 - What to do about bad regulations or laws?

1:12:00 - Could Government Target Silent Payments?

1:13:39 - Sustainability of Sparrow Wallet Development

Links:

Stephan Livera links:

RailsX: Yield for LPs & Seamless BTC-Stable Swaps | SLP747 Jun 25, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Jesse Schrader (Jestopher), CEO of Amboss, joins us to break down RailsX — their new Lightning-native DEX.

We discuss:

🔸How traders and liquidity providers use RailsX

🔸The costs and benefits for both sides

🔸Current Lightning routing volumes and growth trends

🔸The state of Lightning yield and how it compares to other players

🔸The recent BitGo Lightning Earn partnership

🔸A quick update on Magma

🔸A high-signal look at where Lightning yield, stablecoins, and institutional adoption are heading.

Timestamps:

00:00 - What is RailsX? Taproot Assets on your LN node

01:09 - The trader end user POV

02:45 - USDT by @speed_LN

03:50 - What are the trading fees? Trade sizes?

06:20 - Liquidity provider POV

08:00 - DIY or managed service?

09:20 - How much yield do liquidity providers get?

10:37 - BitGo Lightning Earn partnership

11:23 - The state of Lightning yield today and lightning activity

12:37 - Update on Amboss Magma - Liquidity Leasing

15:10 - Lightning Volume is Growing Even in a Bear Market

Links:

https://amboss.space/
https://amboss.tech/rails
https://amboss.tech/magma
https://x.com/Jestopher_BTC

Stephan Livera links:

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