State of Play

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Will U.S.-China tensions dominate the ASEAN summit? Oct 16, 2025

Show notes

As Southeast Asian leaders prepare to discuss regional security and economic cooperation at the ASEAN Summit, President Trump's potential presence raises questions about the future of U.S. engagement in the region. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join guest host Catherine Nzuki to assess what’s at stake for Southeast Asia and whether U.S.–China tensions will overshadow the summit.

Gregory Poling, "Southeast Asia Navigates Trump’s Return: Quick Deals, Lasting Dread," CSIS,October 6, 2025.
Henrietta Levin, "A Big Deal Can Only Favor China," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

Is Gaza pushing international institutions to crisis or renewal? Oct 02, 2025

Show notes

After nearly two years of conflict in Gaza, Caitlin Welsh and Mona Yacoubian join Will to discuss whether the war has prompted an irreversible break in the effectiveness of international institutions or if signs of reform are emerging.

What can U.S. pressure on Venezuela achieve? Sep 18, 2025

Show notes

Mark Cancian and Ryan Berg join Will to discuss what the U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean tells us about changing U.S. priorities, its implications for Venezuela and the wider region, and if U.S. pressure is likely to achieve its aims.

· Mark Cancian and Chris Park, "Going to War with the Cartels: The Military Implications," CSIS, September 8, 2025.

· Ryan Berg and Eric Farnsworth, "Deploying U.S. Vessels to the Caribbean Is a Show of Force," Foreign Policy, September 4, 2025.

Are U.S. tariffs bringing India and China together? Sep 04, 2025

Show notes

President Xi and Prime Minister Modi greeted each other warmly at the SCO summit in China last weekend. Rick Rossow and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how real the China-India rapprochement is, if it’s really because of President Trump’s tariffs, and what it means for the United States.

Are allies or autocrats managing Trump better? Aug 28, 2025

Show notes

After a busy month of U.S. diplomacy, Victor Cha and Max Bergmann join Will to discuss what East Asian and European allies are learning about summits with President Trump and what patterns are emerging about how President Trump engages with autocrats.

"Statesmen’s Forum: His Excellency Lee Jae Myung, President of the Republic of Korea" CSIS, August 25, 2025.
"Max and Maria on the Alaska and White House Peace Summits" Russian Roulette, CSIS, August 21, 2025.

Are U.S.-Japan relations at a turning point? Aug 07, 2025

Show notes

This week, Kristi Govella and Nick Szechenyi join Will to discuss if U.S.-Japan relations are shifting in a fundamental way after tariff negotiations, pressure on defense spending, and turbulent Japanese politics.

Kristi Govella, "What the LDP-Komeito Defeat Means for Japanese Foreign Policy," The Diplomat, July 31, 2025.
Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, and Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Upper House Election: Prolonged Instability," CSIS, July 21, 2025.

Is Pressure on Indo-Pacific Allies Working? Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

The Trump administration is placing pressure on allies in the Indo-Pacific, from tariffs and aid cuts to efforts to increase defense spending. Charles Edel and Greg Poling join Will to discuss if the United States' economic and security strategies are working, how allies are responding, and what this means for China's standing in the region.

Charles Edel, Kathryn Paik, and John Auge, "Shifting Tides: The National Security Implications of the United States’ Pacific Drawdown," CSIS, July 22, 2025.

Gregory Poling, "Building Bridges, Countering Rivals: Strengthening U.S.-ASEAN Ties to Combat Chinese Influence," Congressional Testimony, June 10, 2025.

China’s World Order: Does BRICS Still Matter? Jul 10, 2025

Show notes

After President Xi skipped the BRICS summit in Brazil, Ryan Berg and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss if BRICS still matters, if it's part of China’s alternative world order, and other ways China is competing with the U.S. in Latin America and beyond.

How the Israel-Iran War Crossed the Rubicon Jun 26, 2025

Show notes

This week, Will talks with Mona Yacoubian and Max Bergmann about the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran. They discuss President Trump's negotiating strategy, the lessons other states are taking from the war, and what it reveals about the changing global order.

Mona Yacoubian, "How Will Iran and the Middle East Respond to U.S. Strikes?" CSIS, June 23, 2025.
Max Bergmann, "America Blew its Unipolar Moment," Foreign Policy, May 26, 2025.

What to Expect at the G7 Summit Jun 12, 2025

Show notes

This week, Will talks with Victor Cha and Max Bergmann about what to expect from the G7 Summit in Canada. They discuss what makes this meeting so unusual, what on the agenda is most important, and what needs to change to make the G7 relevant in the new geopolitical environment.

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