State of Play

Latest Episodes:

Emergency Episode: PM Takaichi's Landslide Victory in Japan Feb 10, 2026

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Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy.

Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026.
Kristi Govella, Charles McClean, and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Inside Japan’s High-Stakes Snap Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026.

Can middle powers build a new world order as PM Carney says? Jan 29, 2026

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At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are.

Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada," January 20, 2026.
Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, Strengthening International Partnerships," CSIS, October 6, 2025.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Jessie Hu, and Sam Smith, "President Trump’s Latin America Policy: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

How should we combat China's economic coercion? Jan 23, 2026

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In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back.

Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, "China's Weaponization of Trade: Resistance Through Collective Resilience" (Columbia University Press), January 2026.
Victor Cha, "How to Stop Chinese Coercion," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2023.
Watch video of the discussion.

What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026? Jan 15, 2026

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After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead.

"Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026.

The Donroe Doctrine: What Venezuela Means for China, Russia, and Iran Jan 14, 2026

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Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere.

The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from Maduro’s capture and what it means for their interests going forward. The discussion will feature Dr. Ryan Berg, Henrietta Levin, Dr. Vali Nasr, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

Did Trump remake the global order in 2025? Dec 17, 2025

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2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead.

Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025.
Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

Where now for Europe and Ukraine after the NSS? Dec 10, 2025

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After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal.

Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025.
Mark F Cancian and Maria Snegovaya, "The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision," CSIS, November 24, 2025.

Did the Saudi & Syrian Trump visits meet expectations? Nov 21, 2025

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The visits of the Saudi crown price and the Syrian president to the White House resulted in large investment deals and new defense announcements. Mona Yacoubian and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney join Will to discuss how successful the visits really were, what failed to materialize, and what surprises emerged.

Michael Ratney, “A Crown Prince with a New Set of Priorities,” New York Times, November 17, 2025.
Mona Yacoubian and Michael Ratney, “MBS in Washington: What’s Next for U.S.-Saudi Relations?” CSIS, November 6, 2025.

Are President Trump's tariffs working? Nov 12, 2025

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President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his expansive use of tariffs. Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss what they are intended to achieve, their economic effects, and the geopolitical shifts they are precipitating.

Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen, "When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight," CSIS, October 21, 2025.
Navin Girishankar, "Fighting a Trade War Could Mean Losing the Tech War," CSIS, March 28, 2025.

Was President Trump's Asia trip a success? Oct 31, 2025

Show notes

After a whirlwind trip through Asia, President Trump touted big economic deals, a peace treaty, and a successful meeting with Xi Jinping. Victor Cha and Brian Hart join Will to discuss if the trip met expectations, what surprises emerged, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations.

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