State of Play

Latest Episodes:

How Serious is Russia's Threat to Europe? Oct 22, 2026

Show notes

U.S. and European leaders have accused Russia of stepping up sabotage, drone incursions, and cyberattacks in Europe, and some warn that Russia will test NATO's article 5 resolve by striking European states with drones or missiles. This week, Max Bergmann and Dan Byman discuss what Russia is trying to achieve, what European states can do in response, and what we should expect from the United States.

Maria Snegovaya, Tina Dolbaia, Nicholas Fenton, and Max Bergmann, "Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?" CSIS, July 14, 2026.
Seth G. Jones, Seamus P. Daniels, Riley McCabe, and Daniel Byman, "Wartime Footing: A Two-Front Strategy to Confront China and Russia" CSIS, June 8, 2026.
Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, "How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America," CSIS, October 8, 2025.

After Houthi Attacks, What Options Does Saudi Arabia Have? Oct 16, 2026

Show notes

Last weekend, the Houthis conducted their deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia for over a decade. Amb. Michael Ratney and new CSIS senior fellow Allison Minor join Will to discuss how we got to this point, whether Saudi Arabia is more likely to escalate the military campaign or try to cut a deal with the Houthis, and what role the United States will play.

Allison Minor, "Avoiding Another Long War in Yemen," CSIS, October 15, 2026.
Allison Minor, "All Out War in Yemen," CSIS, October 15, 2026.
Michael Ratney, "Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium," CSIS, September 24, 2026.
Michael Ratney, "Is the United States Abandoning Saudi Arabia at Its Moment of Need?" CSIS, September 23, 2026.

Could Fighting in Ethiopia Spark Regional War in the Horn of Africa? Oct 08, 2026

Show notes

Fighting has broken out between the Ethiopian government and an alliance of 7 opposition groups. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance, though officials from all three governments have denied this. This week, Aaron Stanley and Dr. Yonas Ashine Demisse discuss how we got to this place, how shifting geopolitics are shaping conflict dynamics, and what the most likely trajectory of the war is.

Yonas Ashine Demisse, "Rethinking Pax Africana in Multipolar Disorder: A Genealogical Return to Pan-African Futures," Security Context, August 10, 2026.
Aaron Stanley, "After the Supermajority: Ethiopia’s Trajectory Following the 2026 Election," CSIS, June 18, 2026.
Oge Onubogu, "In the Shadows of the Iran War: The Horn of Africa," CSIS Into Africa, March 26, 2026.

What Did Trump and Xi Agree to at the White House? Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

The summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could cover a range of issues to potentially include trade, investment, AI, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. The morning after the summit, CSIS’s leading China experts will provide a rapid assessment of its outcomes in a live episode of State of Play on Friday, September 25, at 9:00 AM EDT. Amb. Edgard Kagan, Dr. Thomas Christensen, Dr. Scott Kennedy, and Dr. Bonny Lin will join host Will Todman to discuss how successful the summit was and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations. This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Is the U.S.-Philippines Alliance Really at a Historic High? Sep 11, 2026

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A recent opinion poll found that Filipinos have the most positive view of President Trump of any of the 36 countries surveyed. On the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, Amb. John Negroponte and Greg Poling join Will to assess the strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, the drivers of Filipinos' positive attitudes towards the U.S., and what might threaten bilateral ties going forward.

"Manila Strategy Forum" CSIS, September 9 to 10, 2026.

Will Trump’s Pressure on Canada Break the USMCA? Aug 27, 2026

Show notes

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Will talks with Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America.

Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026.
Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025.
Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025.

Did Iran Attack U.S. Water Systems? Aug 17, 2026

Show notes

Cyberattacks targeting water and wastewater utilities have been reported in at least a dozen states across the United States since late July. Although there has been no widespread contamination or immediate threat to public drinking water, it is a serious and apparently coordinated attack. Nikita Shah, Caitlin Welsh, and Lauryn Williams join Will Todman to discuss why U.S. critical infrastructure is vulnerable, what can be done to respond, and if there is enough evidence to blame Iran.

State of Play audience survey
Nikita Shah, "The Cyberattacks on the U.S Water Sector and the Iran Question: Escalation or Opportunism?" CSIS, August 14, 2026.
Franck Gbaguidi and Caitlin Welsh, "Rethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk," CSIS, August 5, 2026.
Lauryn Williams, "Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems" CSIS, August 4, 2026.

Is Cuba Nearing an Inflection Point? Aug 13, 2026

Show notes

President Trump is ramping up economic pressure on Cuba and has instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to find a new leader who could work with the United States – like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Christopher Hernandez Roy and William LeoGrande join Will to discuss how the Trump administration’s strategy on Cuba is evolving, how Cuban leaders are responding, and if we are nearing an inflection point.

State of Play audience survey
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark Cancian, and Henry Ziemer, "The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba," CSIS, June 3, 2026.
William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, "Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba?" Foreign Policy, May 22, 2026.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy et al, "Preparing for the Consequences of Collapse in Cuba," CSIS, April 9, 2026.
William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana, University of North Carolina Press, 2014.

How Should the U.S. Counter China in the Pacific? Jul 30, 2026

Show notes

A Chinese submarine recently launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific, and China has been on the hunt for a security foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the United States has cut assistance and reduced its diplomatic presence in the Pacific. This week, Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik join Will to discuss China’s ambitions in the Pacific, how U.S. interests in the region are evolving, and how Pacific countries are navigating geopolitical competition.

State of Play audience survey
Kathryn Paik, "Bolstering Pacific Resilience: A New Paradigm for Engagement by U.S. Allies and Partners," CSIS, July 21, 2026.
Joseph Rodgers, Bonny Lin, and Charles Edel, "Unpacking China’s Recent SLBM Test into the Pacific," CSIS, July 17, 2026.
Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik, "The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific," Foreign Affairs, October 10, 2024.

Was This World Cup More Political? Jul 17, 2026

Show notes

The 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and competing national ambitions. But did these politics shape the tournament more than in previous years? Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, and Enoh Ebong join Will to assess the geopolitical dimensions of this year's World Cup in a live episode of State of Play. They examine how host nation diplomacy, soft power competition, and economic interests played out on and off the pitch, and what the tournament revealed about the emerging world order.