Saxo Market Call

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Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets Jun 18, 2026

Show notes

Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Link

As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Choppy chips even as crude mega-dips. Warsh on tap. Jun 17, 2026

Show notes

Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max supportive move lower in crude oil yesterday, showing that lower oil prices have lost their impact as macro driver. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack with more links, if you missed these.
Craig Tindale's latest on "Who owns the chemistry that turns metal into power." Laying out why those critical materials are so critical and the systematic changes required to address the issue if China isn't to maintain its dominance and leverage.
Peter Garnry on SpaceX and how truly rare it is to see the kind of growth that some are anticipating for this company - with only two prior examples that are even in the same universe for a company of size.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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The tails wagging the market and SpaceX dogs Jun 16, 2026

Show notes

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast

Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week. Jun 15, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

Links

John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week.
A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face.
FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows.
The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.)

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Rounding up the usual suspects as a new era at the Fed dawns next week. Jun 12, 2026

Show notes

Today, the usual suspects knee-jerked higher Thursday on Trump's latest peace declaration as crude oil dropped, while the other usual suspects (software as a service) were some of the worst performers ahead of Adobe's earnings release after the close. Also, a strong discussion of the status for gold, copper, crude oil and El Niño with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, a look at macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

FT suggests that the quantum computing revolution may be coming sooner than we think.
Jesse Felder on the Thoughtful Money podcast, pointing out some concerning trends within the AI phenomenon and suggesting we are near a bubble top.
A recent Matt Stoller substack post, mostly just encouragement to follow his work and to read his book Goliath and to point out his link to this old post from May of 2009 about Wall Street's capture of Washington - something that Treasury Secretary Bessent has promised to do something about. The new Kevin Warsh Fed will have a critical role to play if this is ever to amount to anything.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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The either-or moment for US stocks and gold Jun 11, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-or moment technically and thematically as the USD remains strong. Lots more on macro and FX and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

In "The abundance illusion" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display.
HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to a Kardamow substack article that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics.
An FT Article looks at US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast.
Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls The iPhone's Last Stand.
This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Market volatility expansion flashes red. Gold key support in view. Jun 10, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Today's only link is to an excellent FT op-ed "Why are we still arguing about the Industrial revolution?" that complains about the attempt to use poor quality 19th century data that provides few insights on how the Industrial Revolution transformed society and the types of available jobs as we attempt to anticipate how AI will transform our current society and the job market. Instead, we should consult the best fiction writers of the time, who provide excellent qualitative documentation of the impact of the industrial revolution.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Many moving parts ahead of next week's seminal event Jun 09, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Today's The FX Trader from John
The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the possible signal from China's ability to crater its oil imports.
"Is the iPhone birth control?", asks an academic paper FTAlphaville links to, which is a study linking the launch of the iPhone in the US with lower fertility. Now imagine what widespread immersive AI will do...

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Correction not yet a calamity. Jun 08, 2026

Show notes

Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of note and the first Fed meeting led by Fed Chair Warsh next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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The real reason Musk wants to go to Mars? May 29, 2026

Show notes

Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider Saxo's outrageous prediction for this year regarding the SpaceX IPO and one of the main things - or perhaps the main thing - Elon Musk hopes to achieve in going to Mars (link below). Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

We took a stab at predicting the scale of the SpaceX IPO (undershooting badly!) and some of the true reasons for Elon Musk's passion for going to Mars in the Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2026 released late last year.
The Register discussed Salesforce' "waving bye-bye" to its User Interface as it opens up its data to a trillion API calls from other platforms, including increasingly Anthropic via its Headless 360, a programmable agent platform.
The constantly shade-throwing Futurism (ironically a bit Luddite at times) with an article questioning whether CEO's are suffering from AI psychosis as they are out of touch with the struggle for AI to get traction at ground level in their organisations.
Is AI making some people feel and act dangerously over-competent and what are the risks if so? (HT FTAlphaville)

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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