Show notes
Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB Saturday from a betting perspective.
They open by focusing on the early matchup between the Tigers and Rays. Both lean toward Tampa Bay, highlighting Ryan Pepio’s strong recent form—3.11 ERA over 15 starts and 11 strikeouts in his last outing. Pepio's underappreciated market value and Detroit’s surprising top MLB record are discussed, with consensus on Rays at -120.
For Orioles vs Yankees, Clark Schmidt is praised for allowing only three earned runs across four recent starts. Zach Eflin, although historically solid against the Yankees, struggled in his last outing. Both lean toward Orioles as underdogs and prefer the under 9.5 total due to Yankee Stadium’s scoring tendencies.
In Reds vs Cardinals, Sonny Gray’s strong home record (5-1, 2.85 ERA) contrasts with his struggles against Cincinnati (4.70 ERA). Without a Reds starter listed, Griffin leans toward the Reds due to line inflation. Munaf might back St. Louis if run line odds are favorable.
Seattle at Chicago is discussed with attention to wind's effect at Wrigley Field. Emerson Hancock has pitched well recently, but the Mariners lost his last four starts due to poor run support. Cade Horton’s 2.70 ERA at home is noted. Both hosts await wind direction before betting, with a potential over expected.
In Milwaukee vs Minnesota, Quintana’s inconsistency and walk rate are flagged, while Richardson is labeled a weak rotation fill-in. Despite concerns, both see value in Brewers at plus money.
For White Sox vs Blue Jays, Berríos’ strong history against Chicago (14-6, 3.16 ERA) supports Munaf’s best bet: Jays -1.5 run line at -105. Griffin notes the White Sox's poor weekend performances and questions their motivation.
Rangers vs Pirates features concerns around Kumar Rocker’s splits (15.09 ERA on road) and Mitch Keller’s unreliable late innings. Despite bad offenses, both expect a high-scoring game.
The Braves visit the Marlins in a matchup where Grant Holmes is riding a 15-strikeout game. Yuri Perez has struggled mightily vs Atlanta. Both favor a Braves team total over as their offense heats up.
Kansas City faces San Diego with Dylan Cease showing volatility. Royals are praised for recent form, including a sweep of Texas, and bullpen strength. Hosts lean Royals ML and under in the first five innings.
Mets vs Phillies highlights Griffin Canning’s struggles—10 earned runs in his last two outings—against Mick Abel’s potential. Philadelphia is seen as cheap at -112, with both supporting the home side.
In Arizona vs Colorado, Merrill Kelly’s dominance (7-0, 1.60 ERA vs Rockies since 2022) is emphasized, including a 2.03 ERA at Coors. Yet due to rising temperatures and Palmquist’s late fade, they suggest betting over.
Astros vs Angels is discussed with Walter’s solid last start (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) and Soriano’s overall reliability. However, the Angels’ 1-5 record vs lefties at home tilts the pick to Astros at -110.
Guardians vs A’s offers little confidence. Luis Ortiz’s high walk rate and Mitch Spence’s Triple-A quality result in a lean toward the over and a mild interest in the A’s if plus money improves.
Nationals vs Dodgers sees Jake Irvin’s night game struggles (5.16 ERA) and Dustin May’s inconsistency. The hosts recommend Dodgers team total over or full game over.
Lastly, Boston visits San Francisco with Brayan Bello consistent and Landen Roop unproven. While Giants are tough at home, the under 7.5 is the preferred angle due to low scoring projections.
Griffin’s best bet is Rays ML behind Pepio, while Munaf backs Berríos and Toronto on the run line. The episode closes with promo code RBI20 for a discounted betting package.
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